Global financial markets are turbulent, where will Crypto Assets go?

Recently, the global financial markets have experienced a震荡. The US stock market suffered heavy losses, with all three major indices falling. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 2.08%, the Nasdaq index dropped by 4%, and the S&P 500 index decreased by 2.7%.

The Crypto Assets market has also not been spared. Bitcoin once fell below $77,000, reaching $76,560, with a daily drop of more than 8%. Ethereum performed even weaker, briefly falling below $1,800, with a minimum close to $1,760.

However, the market seems to be showing signs of recovery. Bitcoin has regained around $82,000, and Ethereum has also risen back above $1,900. Nevertheless, in the current complex external environment, it remains uncertain whether this rebound indicates a market shift.

One important factor causing this market fluctuation is the rising expectation of an economic recession in the United States. Multiple economic indicators show that the U.S. economy is facing challenges. In February, the non-farm payroll added 151,000 jobs, slightly lower than expected; the unemployment rate is 4.1%. The inflation issue remains severe, with the expected final value of the one-year inflation rate in February reaching 4.3%, a recent high.

Consumer confidence has also been affected. A survey by the New York Federal Reserve shows that consumers' expectations for inflation over the next year have risen to 3.1%, with the proportion of households expecting their financial situation to worsen reaching 27.4%, the highest level in recent times.

Against this backdrop, several institutions have begun to predict that the United States may fall into a recession. The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank forecasts that GDP may contract by 2.4% in the first quarter of this year. JPMorgan's model shows that the probability of a U.S. economic recession has risen from 17% in November last year to 31%.

These economic issues are partly derived from recent changes in trade policy. Adjustments to tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and other countries have raised market concerns that may affect economic growth and international trade relations.

In the face of these challenges, the government is taking measures to respond. This includes adjusting tariff policies and exploring reform plans. However, the effectiveness of these measures remains to be seen, and in the short term, they may bring some uncertainty to the market.

For the Crypto Assets market, the current situation presents both challenges and opportunities. On one hand, Bitcoin prices remain at historical highs, and the regulatory environment is expected to gradually improve. On the other hand, market growth momentum and liquidity are under pressure, with small-cap Crypto Assets particularly affected.

Looking ahead, the trends in the Crypto Assets market may be closely related to the macroeconomic situation. If the U.S. economy avoids recession, Bitcoin may remain within the current price range. However, if the economy does fall into recession, the prices of Crypto Assets may face larger adjustments.

In the long run, many industry insiders remain optimistic about the prospects of the Crypto Assets market. Some analysts predict that Bitcoin may eventually reach the million-dollar level, although it may experience volatility along the way. Data shows that some large investors have recently increased their holdings in Bitcoin, reflecting confidence in its long-term value.

However, in the current environment filled with uncertainty, investors need to remain cautious. Closely monitoring the global economic situation, changes in regulatory policies, and market sentiment will be key in the coming period. Whether it is short-term trading or long-term investment, it is essential to fully assess risks and manage asset allocation and risk management.