Mysterious trader wins big in the prediction market, earning nearly $50 million

A mysterious trader is expected to reap nearly $50 million in lucrative returns after a series of bold bets related to the U.S. presidential election. This trader, known as the "Trump Whale," not only wagered that Trump would win the presidential election but also predicted that he would prevail in the popular vote—a result that many political observers deemed unlikely.

The trader who calls himself "Théo" has also bet that Trump will win key swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Théo placed these bets on a certain cryptocurrency prediction market through four anonymous accounts. Although he refuses to reveal his true identity, he has been in contact with a certain media outlet since his bets drew attention in mid-October.

In several emails, Théo stated that his bet is essentially a judgment on the accuracy of polling data. He claims to be a wealthy Frenchman who has worked as a trader at several banks. He has been using his mathematical knowledge to analyze U.S. polling data since this summer.

Théo believes that the polls have exaggerated Vice President Harris's support rate. Unlike many armchair political commentators, he puts his analysis into practice, betting over $30 million on Trump's victory.

As the election results were revealed, Théo's predictions gradually came to fruition. Trump's strong performance in Florida indicates a high likelihood of his victory in the popular vote. As of the afternoon of the second day after the election, analysts predicted that Trump would win the popular vote, receiving nearly 72 million votes, while Harris would receive 67.1 million votes, despite millions of ballots still uncounted in some states.

Théo stated that he is betting with his own funds purely for the purpose of making a profit, "there is absolutely no political motive whatsoever." However, the truth of these claims cannot be fully verified.

In his communication with reporters, Théo criticized the polling methods in the United States multiple times. He believes that the opinion polls conducted by mainstream media often lean towards the Democratic Party, resulting in anomalous outcomes that are favorable to Harris. He pointed out that, in contrast, French opinion polls place greater emphasis on credibility, striving for results that are as close to reality as possible.

Théo shared his analysis method, which includes using the polling averages from RealClearPolitics to predict Trump's performance in swing states. He also mentioned the "shy Trump voter effect," believing that it may lead polls to underestimate Trump's actual support.

To address this issue, Théo suggests using the "neighboring resident intention survey" method, which involves asking respondents which candidate they expect their neighbors to support. He believes this method can indirectly reflect people's true voting tendencies.

Théo's successful prediction has sparked a discussion about polling methods. He calls on American polling agencies to adopt more diverse survey methods in the future to improve the accuracy of predictions. This experience not only brought Théo substantial economic returns but also provided new avenues for thought in the field of political forecasting.