Exclusive Interview with Trader HighFreedom: A Macroeconomic Perspective on the Crypto Assets Market

HighFreedom is a cryptocurrency trader with a background in brokerage macroeconomic analysis. He shares his trading strategies, insights on the macro economy, and predictions for the future trends of the cryptocurrency market.

1. HighFreedom's Trading Strategy

1. Make money in the right direction: Hold Bitcoin steady during a bull market to earn overall appreciation.

2. Make money from volatility: Under the premise of controlling leverage, when the Bitcoin price falls into an appropriate range, establish a coin-based long position. Close the position after the price rises to increase Bitcoin holdings.

3. Reasons for Strategy Formation:

   • After going through multiple cycles, I found that this strategy aligns better with my risk preferences and capital management strategies.
   • It can effectively avoid the risk of missing out and reduce the cost of holding positions.

4. Core Strategy Logic:

   • Combine directional returns with volatility returns
   • Neither missing out on the overall increase nor increasing Bitcoin holdings through fluctuation operations.
   • Reduce the risk of premature selling and missing the market.

5. Expected Returns:

   • Achieve an overall return of 3-5 times during the bull market cycle.
   • Retracement controlled at 20%-30%, extreme cases up to 40%

6. Implementation Precautions:

   • Strictly control leverage, recommended within 50%
   • Choose the right market timing, suitable for bull market fluctuations.
   • Avoid operating during fast upward trends and at market peaks, as the cost of capital is high.

2. Macroeconomics, US Stock Market, and Crypto Assets Market

1. Why is it important to understand the U.S. macroeconomy:

   • Market participants are divided into on-chain individuals (, experienced players in the ) coin circle, and off-chain individuals ( who enter through channels such as ETFs.
   • The impact of off-exchange funds is increasing, and attention needs to be paid to the US stock market and the US macroeconomy.

2. US Stock Market Structure:

   • Underlying: low-risk, low-yield assets such as money market funds, short-term government bonds, etc.
   • Mid-level: blue-chip stocks, tech giants, etc.
   • Upper layer: small-cap stocks, high-risk high-return assets
   • Bitcoin positioning: between mid and upper tier, similar to Russell 2000 or ARKK fund

3. The trend of the altcoin market:

   • Depends on overall market liquidity
   • If U.S. high-risk assets perform well, altcoins may see a rise.
   • Current liquidity is relatively tight, and the performance of altcoins may be constrained.

4. Steps for Beginners to Learn Trading:

   • Obtain CFA Level I, systematically study the fundamentals of financial markets.
   • Keep an eye on market trends daily and analyze the reasons behind the Token price increase.
   • Learn risk management, especially leverage control
   • Focus on on-chain data, fundamental analysis of different coins and other multidimensional analyses.

5. Avoidance Matters ) Stop Doing List (:

   • Overuse of leverage
   • Over-reliance on a single indicator

3. Recommended Traders to Follow

1. Fu Peng: Analyst at Northeast Securities, has profound insights into dollar assets.

2. Arthur Hayes: has a deep understanding of the U.S. macro economy

3. Victor: Fund Manager, veteran in the coin circle, has a unique perspective on the market.

4. Benson: An experienced veteran from the last bull market, providing valuable cyclical indicators.

4. Views on the Future Market

1. Bitcoin Market Value Expectations:

   • This bull market may reach 15%-20% of the gold market capitalization.
   • The corresponding price may be around 100,000 USD.

2. The Future of Altcoins:

   • There is a high probability of altcoin market activity
   • The increase depends on the overall market liquidity situation.

3. Short-term Forecast:

   • Believe that we are currently at the bottom area
   • A new upward cycle is expected in the fourth quarter.

4. Year-end price prediction:

   • Bitcoin is expected to reach $100,000 by the end of the year.