The Fed reassesses policy impact as Bitcoin falls to $93,000

1. Market Highlights

1. Market Trends

(1) Macroeconomic Environment:

The Federal Reserve reassesses the impact of government policies on the economy, uncertainty exists regarding interest rate cuts

The Federal Reserve is reassessing the potential impact of new government policies on the U.S. economy and inflation. Reports indicate that the Fed Chairman has expressed dissatisfaction with some officials' public comments, believing they too directly linked Fed policy to changes in government policy. Currently, the market widely expects the Fed's future rate cuts to be slower and more cautious. Analysts point out that the prospects for Fed rate cuts in 2025 are fraught with uncertainty, and investors need to prepare for potential economic fluctuations. According to data, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in January next year is 87.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 12.8%. By March next year, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 50.6%, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 44.1%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 5.4%.

(2) Web3 Field:

Bitcoin Falls Again as Market Sentiment Dims and Capital Outflows Intensify

The cryptocurrency market continues to experience fluctuations and declines, with Bitcoin starting a new round of decline, reaching a low of $93,000, marking a new low in nearly a week. According to data, the funding rates on major exchanges indicate a generally bearish market sentiment. Meanwhile, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced another net outflow on Friday, amounting to $287 million, with a cumulative net outflow of $376 million last week. During this market adjustment period, the tokens of centralized trading platforms have performed relatively well, while the popularity of AI Agents continues, with significant inflows.

2. Hot Topics

(1) Macroeconomic Environment:

Venture Capital Firms Oppose New US Treasury Regulations, Believing They Threaten DeFi Innovation

The regulatory head of a venture capital firm posted on social media, expressing the company's confidence in DeFi, believing that DeFi will make financial services and the digital economy more convenient, efficient, interoperable, reliable, and consumer-centric. However, the head pointed out that the new broker report rules recently released by the U.S. Treasury pose a direct threat to this vision and could hinder the future of DeFi innovation in the U.S. The company supports the lawsuit filed by multiple blockchain-related organizations, arguing that the IRS and Treasury have exceeded their statutory authority, violated the Administrative Procedure Act (APA), and may be unconstitutional. The head emphasized that the company will continue to fight for the future of DeFi in the courts, Congress, and with the support of the new administration.

(2) web3 field:

Malaysia’s Securities Commission Regulates Crypto Trading Platforms, Requires Unregistered Platforms to Cease Operations

The Securities Commission of Malaysia has taken strict enforcement action against a cryptocurrency trading platform and its CEO because the platform operated its crypto asset trading business locally without proper registration. The regulator has ordered the platform to immediately cease operations of its website, mobile applications, and other digital platforms in Malaysia, and to complete rectification within the specified time. Additionally, the platform has been required to terminate all advertising activities aimed at Malaysian investors and to close social media groups that provide support for local users.

Regulators stated that this decision is based on concerns about whether the platform complies with local regulatory requirements and protects investors' rights. According to the Capital Markets and Services Act 2007, operating a digital asset trading platform (DAX) without registration as a recognized market operator (RMO) by the Securities Commission is illegal. As early as July 2021, the platform and its CEO were included on the investor warning list of the Securities Commission of Malaysia for similar violations.

3. Hot Topics Narrative

AI Agency Market Rises Against the Trend, Certain Project Market Value Reaches Historical High

The AI agent has once again attracted widespread attention. According to data, despite the overall pullback in the crypto market, the AI agent sector has risen against the trend, with a 24-hour increase of 1.54%. Recently, a certain AI project released a proposal for updates to its token economics, focusing on the acquisition of mature technologies and teams during the Launchpad phase in the first quarter of 2025. The aim is to innovate the Eliza framework and achieve multi-chain integration to increase launch fees, staking, and other value capture mechanisms. The second phase will focus on ecological growth and incentive synergy, aiming to enhance the value of multiple products and strengthen the connections between tokens while incentivizing developers through buybacks and ecological funds. Subsequently, the project's market capitalization soared to $1.5 billion at one point, setting a historical high and reflecting the market's recognition of the potential of AI agents.

2. Hot Projects

1. Project Introduction

$SLINKY | ZK | Solana ecosystem project

• Narrative: The largest token airdrop in the Solana ecosystem, representing a breakthrough in Solana token technology.

• After the $SLINKY token was launched, its market value exceeded 10 million dollars within half an hour, then it retraced to 7 million dollars, and is currently reported at 11 million dollars.

• Allocate 10% of the total supply to wallets holding more than 0.006 SOL during the snapshot on August 30, totaling 27,775,857 wallets, achieving true large-scale distribution with ZK Compression technology. Traditional airdrop methods require a fee of 55,550 SOL, while using Slinky's technology only requires 22.2 SOL.

3. Sector Rotation