In this cycle, my experiences and lessons ( down )

Host: Alex, Research Partner at Mint Ventures

Guest: Colin, Freelance Trader, On-chain Data Researcher; On-chain Nomad, Professional On-chain Investor

Recording time: 2025.7.17

Hello everyone, welcome to WEB3 Mint To Be initiated by Mint Ventures. Here, we clarify facts, explore realities, and seek consensus in the WEB3 world through continuous questioning and in-depth thinking. We aim to clarify the logic behind hot topics, provide insights that penetrate the events themselves, and introduce diverse perspectives.

Alex: Today we have two guests, both of whom are our old friends. The first is Colin, who is a well-known on-chain analyst and has experience in both the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency field. The other is an on-chain nomad and also my friend. He previously participated in our episode about Memes, sharing many thoughts and insights on the topic. Could both of you please introduce yourselves again?

Colin: Hello everyone, my name is Colin. The account I run is called Mr. Beg. I am very happy to be invited back to the show by Alex to share some of my opinions, thank you.

On-chain Nomad: Hello everyone, I am an on-chain nomad. I entered the space in 2023 and have been focused on the primary market since then. The profits from the primary market were mostly converted into Bitcoin in the first half of the bull market and into U in the second half, following this kind of rhythm. In this round, I have basically kept an eye on and participated in the major hotspots or big trends in the primary market. Throughout this process, I have also summarized and learned some experiences and lessons. Today, I look forward to sharing with everyone.

Assessment and Response Strategies for the Current Stage

Alex: So let's move into today's official chat session. The first question is closely related to each of our current investment operations, which is what are your views on the current cycle stage? What stage do you think the current crypto bull market is in, whether it's for Bitcoin or other assets? Based on this judgment, what is your current strategy and position?

Colin: Okay. Personally, when it comes to defining the so-called Bitcoin cycle, I mainly rely on indicators or signals from on-chain analysis, which is my area of expertise, to determine whether we are in the early, mid, or late stage of the cycle. I remember the first time I participated in the show was in mid-February this year, and I discussed my views on this topic. Today happens to be a good opportunity for a review. First of all, from the end of last year to the beginning of this year, I feel that BTC is very close to the end of this cycle. The reason is that there were already signals appearing that historically occur at every peak. I know this logic may not be accepted by many, because if you look at the normal four-year cycle, the peak should occur at the end of this year, around September to December. But I wrote an article explaining this earlier; if we go back to 2021, which is four years ago, the so-called first peak actually appeared in April—because there were two peaks that year. Almost all peak signals occurred in April 2021, not in November's second peak. Currently, this cycle is showing a similar situation again. I don’t dare to say for certain that there will definitely be a second peak soon, but the current situation is almost identical to that year. That is to say, we triggered almost all the peak signals in on-chain analysis that I monitor at the beginning of this year. At that time, it fell from a high of about 110,000 to 74,000 in March and April, and then it rose to a new high now. During the second peak in 2021, some signals also appeared. The signals at that time were quite special because most of them had already triggered at the first peak. This includes divergences in capital inflows, vertical rises, minimal pullbacks, and not much sideways movement, as well as indicators like AVIV overheating, large concentrated realized profits, and divergences in RUP, etc. If we compare now with the second peak in 2021, all these signals have reappeared. Of course, every cycle is completely different. A significant difference in this cycle is that there has been a structural change in participants. Simply put, many institutions have entered the market. Many companies are following the example of a certain company to do Bitcoin reserves, and even recently, strategic reserves of Ethereum have begun to appear. Based on my previous on-chain analysis perspective to define the current cycle stage, I still tend to think that we have entered the end stage, and we are currently rhyming with the second peak trend of 2021.

Under this premise, I will answer the second question, which is about my current positions and strategies. I mentioned before coming to the show that my outlook for the entire year of 2025 is relatively conservative. Whether from some conditions within the industry or the overall macro market, such as the tariffs imposed after Trump took office and the calls to dismiss Powell, the difficulty of operations will be much greater than in 2024 in such a large environment. In terms of positions, I currently divide it into two parts: first is the crypto part. At the beginning of the year, when BTC reached 103,000, I had already liquidated my positions and hedged with a 1x margin short position to earn an annualized return of about 7%-10% Funding Fee. Now the price has reached a new high, surpassing my initial exit point, and some bottom signals are starting to appear slowly, but they are not yet fully formed. My current strategy is to adopt a low-leverage short plan, with leverage expected to be controlled between 1.15-1.25 times. The other part is the US stock market. I am relatively relaxed about the US stock market; I had already fully invested back in April this year. I remember mentioning this when I was on the show in May; currently, there are no plans to change this part of the position. This is my overall view at the moment.

Alex: Alright. Colin just reviewed his previous judgment logic regarding the current phase and also talked about his latest situation. Basically, he still maintains his previous judgment. I would like to add a note that the reason we invited these two guests today is that their trading styles are completely different, and the types of assets they focus on are also vastly different. Next, the on-chain investor who will speak is more adept at discovering first-level opportunities, on-chain opportunities. Let's invite him to share.

On-chain Nomads: Well, as the host just introduced, my trading style tends to focus more on emotions and the market. I mainly share from a primary market perspective, as the secondary market part was covered quite professionally by the guest Colin, and I don't have much experience to share regarding the secondary market. From a primary perspective, I can make a broad judgment: it is certainly not a bull market at the primary level. Having entered the market in 2023, it has been a little over two years, and I have experienced times such as when a specific ecosystem was hyping inscriptions, or when meme coins were being speculated at the beginning of this year. It is very evident to see external flow entering this market; not only are there funds within the market speculating, but there is also outside capital flowing into the primary market. This feeling is quite clear. However, I believe the current market is relatively quiet and has not reached the feel of a primary bull market at all. From the secondary market perspective, not just me, but many primary players, including those trading altcoins, share a common sentiment: this cycle, certain coins and altcoins, or say the primary market, are quite disconnected. Some coins are rising dramatically on their own, while altcoins and the primary market sometimes do not correlate at all with the rise of certain coins. Therefore, my analysis and judgment regarding the bull market in the primary market is as follows. Regarding my positions, I currently have about 90% of my positions converted into a stablecoin, only leaving 10% in a certain coin for long-term holding and not moving. I do not intend to buy back at this level. Based on the information I have received, including from very skilled traders in the secondary market or some OGs from previous crypto circles, the overall shift is from taking big risks to a more defensive approach. My current state is also like that.

Alex: As a very active level one player, what is your current work status or daily time allocation like?

On-chain Nomads: This still combines with the market. I pay more attention to the liquidity on-chain. In the past week or two, the liquidity on-chain has warmed up a bit, so my own working hours have also increased accordingly. For a while when it was very quiet on-chain, I used to spend only one or two hours a day just brushing through information to see if there were any big opportunities worth participating in recently. Like the pump a few days ago, I was paying attention and participated as well. But for some other on-chain PVP opportunities, I chose to give up. Because I think doing level one must emphasize the investment return ratio, which is the cost-effectiveness. Sometimes when the market trend is not right, or the timing is not right, putting in more effort can actually lead to losses.

Alex: This is also the basic state of those top players around you, or the experts on the chain, right?

On-chain Nomads: Yes, didn't 0xsun once say something very classic, "Main players don't play garbage time," which is similar to this meaning.

The change in investment difficulty for this cycle

Alex: Understood, let's talk about the second question of today. I know Colin is an investor who has experienced several rounds of crypto cycles. For you, how does this cycle compare to previous ones in terms of investment difficulty? Do you think it is harder or easier? What are the reasons behind that?

Colin: Okay. I personally feel that if we look at the entire market as a comprehensive evaluation, the difficulty hasn't changed significantly. Because making money in the financial market has always been a very difficult task, especially when we want to earn excess returns, or Alpha. As we just discussed, I think the most special point about a certain coin in this cycle is its independent upgrade, which means it stands out on its own. It seems like only it is rising in the entire market, even other popular coins are being outperformed. Another strange situation is that Trump's election in 2025 brought about a tariff war. These two events will have a significant impact on anyone operating in the market. As the market matures, many immature targets, which are those that can be heated up purely by funds, will gradually be eliminated. Therefore, I am not too surprised by the independent upgrade of a certain coin. As for the tariff war, many people will care, but I think if you are someone who invests in a certain coin for the long term, this matter becomes noise. For example, if you are a holder who has held a certain coin since 2022, 2021, or even earlier without selling, then in this cycle, you would feel particularly satisfied. Because in the past few cycles, you might have held a certain coin while watching others' altcoins rise by dozens or hundreds of times, which would disturb your psychology. But if today you are a holder who has not sold at all in this cycle, you would feel very content. For you, the difficulty might be lower. Because the certain coin you hold keeps rising, while other coins are not performing well, even declining. If we were to say there is difficulty, with institutions entering the market, the difficulty will definitely increase. Our opponents are no longer those old OGs or old whales, but rather those hedge funds or quantitative funds that have been rolling in the traditional financial market for decades. Their entry promotes market maturity, which in turn attracts more institutions to participate; this is a cyclical process. The result of this process is that the volatility of the certain coin will become much lower, and the difficulty of hunting for Alpha will increase. But as I just mentioned, if you just want to earn the Beta of a certain coin, which means simply buying and holding, then I think the current market difficulty will not have a significant increase for you.