#美联储货币政策# Looking back at the past few economic cycles, I noticed that the Fed's monetary policy has always been closely related to employment data. This time is no exception. The upcoming July non-farm report is expected to show an increase of 110,000 jobs, lower than the 147,000 in June, and the unemployment rate may slightly rise to 4.2%. If these data are accurate, it will strengthen the view that the labor market is cooling down.

Interestingly, the employment data for May and June has been significantly revised down, indicating that the labor market is weaker than previously thought. This reminds me of the period leading up to the 2008 financial crisis, when employment data also underwent similar revisions. History is always astonishingly similar.

The current market focus is on the interest rate decision in September. If the non-farm payroll data is below 100,000, the Fed may be forced to reconsider its hawkish stance. Conversely, if it exceeds 150,000, the possibility of two rate cuts this year will be eliminated. In any case, this report will be an important piece of the puzzle affecting the future direction of monetary policy.

Throughout history, the Fed has always struggled to balance employment and inflation. The current situation is once again testing the wisdom of decision-makers. Perhaps we should reflect on whether traditional monetary policy tools are still flexible and effective enough in this rapidly changing era. This question deserves our deep consideration.