Yesterday's fall can still be attributed to a technical adjustment, but today's market pullback has led many investors to begin "capitulation," primarily due to the significant downward revision of the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP), raising concerns about an economic downturn. However, I personally do not believe this signifies the start of a bear market. Even if there are suspicions of "adjustments" or even "manipulations" in the data, it is unlikely to directly evolve into systemic risk, especially since the US is not currently witnessing a financial crisis-level chain reaction. Moreover, with Trump's "tariff + tax cut" combo, short-term stimulus policies have only just begun, and if the Fed sees weak data, they have even more reason to accelerate rate cuts. In such a macro context, the market still has structural support.

For the crypto market, the core of the pullback is technical turnover and data sentiment disturbances. Currently, the URPD gap remains at $112,000, with a demand for recovery; while the two key supports below are at $103,500–$108,500 and $93,500–$98,500. Even if there is a deep dive, as long as the second line of defense is not breached, it is still a healthy adjustment. In addition, it is worth noting that once the Fed governor Kugler, who is about to resign, is replaced by Trump, the new voting committee will further strengthen the market's expectation of "policy easing," which may instead become a favorable window. Therefore, I tend to view this round of decline as a somewhat emotional short-term correction rather than a trend reversal.