SUI Price Prediction: 44 Million Tokens Unlocking Soon, Could Trigger Profit Taking? Sui ( SUI ) Tokens surged 38% this month, now priced at $3.85, with on-chain activity (TVL surpassing 2.2 billion) and ecosystem fundamentals supporting the uptrend. However, at midnight UTC on August 1, a large-scale unlock of 44 million SUI (approximately $128 million) will occur, accounting for 1.27% of the circulating supply. Despite the limited unlock ratio, combined with derivative data (open interest down by 1.3%) and a slight drop in trading volume, market cautiousness is rising. The technical outlook shows a neutral consolidation; a breakout above the $3.87 moving average resistance is needed to regain momentum, while a drop below $3.75 could lead to a dip to the critical support at $3.50. 1. Strong Fundamentals: TVL and DEX Trading Volume Surge As of the time of writing, the trading price of Sui ( SUI ) is $3.85, up 38% over the past month. This latest rise is attributed to a surge in on-chain activity and solid ecosystem fundamentals. • TVL exceeds 2.2 billion USD: According to DefiLlama data, the current total value locked (TVL) in the network has reached 2.2 billion USD, a significant increase from 1.7 billion USD in early July. • DEX trading volume nearly doubled: The monthly trading volume of decentralized exchanges (DEX) in July soared to 14.3 billion USD, nearly doubling from 8.1 billion USD in June. • Stablecoin market capitalization exceeds 1 billion: The adoption of stablecoins on the Sui chain continues to rise, with its total market capitalization recently surpassing 1 billion USD, indicating increased market trust in the chain's DeFi ecosystem. 2. Unlock Countdown: 44 Million SUI Could Trigger Selling Pressure Despite the positive momentum, market focus has shifted to the upcoming large-scale token unlock event. Token Unlocks data indicates: • Unlock time: Midnight UTC on August 1 • Unlock quantity: 44 million SUI tokens • Unlock value: Approximately 128 million USD • Proportion of circulating supply: About 1.27% • Current circulating situation: Only 35% of the total SUI supply is currently in circulation. Although the unlock ratio seems low, following a significant price increase, the additional circulating supply may prompt some holders to opt for profit taking. 3. Market Sentiment Turns Cautious: Divergence in Derivative Signals Market activity shows slight signs of slowing: • Spot trading volume: Down 2% to 1.54 billion USD over the past 24 hours. • Derivative data (Coinglass): • Open Interest down 1.3% • Futures trading volume up 2.2% This divergence (decline in trading volume and increase in futures volume) suggests that traders are lowering their risk appetite ahead of the unlock, and operations are becoming more cautious. 4. Technical Analysis: Neutral Consolidation, Key Levels Define Direction (SUI Daily Chart | Source: crypto.news) SUI appears to be in a consolidation phase: • Momentum indicators are neutral: • Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 54, in the neutral zone, with no strong buy or sell pressure. • Stochastic Oscillator and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) are also in the neutral zone, reflecting market uncertainty. • Moving Average Resistance: The price is hovering below the short-term moving averages, forming resistance: • 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA): $3.88 • 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA): $3.87 • Potential Upside: If bulls can break above these moving average resistances with volume and reclaim the $4.00 level, a retest of recent highs is likely. • Downside Risk: • The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned bearish, with momentum slightly negative. • If the price drops below $3.75, strong support is at $3.50 (coinciding with the lower boundary of the recent 7-day volatility range). • If $3.50 is breached, a further dip to $3.30 may occur. Conclusion: The impressive performance of Sui ecosystem data provides strong support for its price, but the upcoming large-scale token unlock event poses the biggest variable in the short term. The market has shown a cautious posture, and the technical outlook indicates a neutral consolidation pattern. Investors need to closely monitor the defense of the $3.87 moving average resistance and the $3.75 support level; the market's ability to absorb the new circulating supply post-unlock will determine whether SUI can sustain its upward trend or enter a phase of adjustment. The balance between Unlock Selling Pressure and On-chain Fundamentals will be key to the next phase of price movement.