The investment community is focusing on the upcoming speech by Fed Chairman Powell, hoping to catch signs of interest rate cuts. However, this expectation is likely to be disappointed.

Analysts generally believe that the Fed may keep interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time at the upcoming July monetary policy meeting. Nevertheless, if one or more officials cast a dissenting vote, it could indicate that there are members within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) who are inclined to take action on interest rate cuts sooner.

Given that a large amount of economic data will be released before the next meeting in September, Powell may choose to maintain policy flexibility until the economic trajectory and policy path become clearer.

The chief economist of the Bank Policy Institute, Bill Nelson, stated: "It is a foregone conclusion that the FOMC will keep interest rates unchanged. The key is whether they will signal a tendency to cut rates in September."

It is worth noting that Trump continues to call for interest rate cuts. At the same time, the Fed's $2.5 billion office building renovation project has also become a focal point of criticism from the Republican Party, and Powell is likely to be asked about this issue at the press conference.

The Fed will announce its interest rate decision at 2 AM on Thursday (Beijing time), followed by a press conference with Powell.

Looking ahead to September, the Fed has only three policy meetings left this year. According to the June forecast, Fed officials expect two rate cuts in 2025, each by 25 basis points. However, as economic data continues to be updated, this expectation may change.

Currently, the market is in a tug of war between speculation on the Fed's policy direction and actual economic data. Investors need to closely monitor the upcoming economic indicators to better predict the Fed's future policy direction.