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Deutsche Bank has recently made significant adjustments to its outlook on the European Central Bank's monetary policy. Previously, the bank predicted that the ECB might further cut interest rates in September, lowering the minimum interest rate to 1.5%. However, the latest analysis indicates that the rate-cutting cycle may end earlier, with the minimum interest rate likely to remain at 1.75% or 2%.
More notably, Deutsche Bank is now predicting that the next move by the European Central Bank may be an interest rate hike rather than a continuation of rate cuts. They have even boldly speculated that tightening of monetary policy could begin as early as the end of 2026.
This sudden shift in prediction highlights the complexity of the European economic situation. Despite earlier market expectations that the Central Bank would continue to implement loose policies, the latest economic data seems to suggest that the European economy may be more resilient than previously expected. Inflationary pressures still exist, which could be one of the key factors prompting Deutsche Bank to change its viewpoint.
However, considering that 2026 is still far away, there may be many unforeseen economic changes during that period. Therefore, while Deutsche Bank's latest forecast is worth noting, investors and economic observers should remain cautious and closely monitor the actual development trends of the European economy.
In any case, Deutsche Bank's shift in this prediction undoubtedly adds a new dimension to the future direction of European monetary policy and provides market participants with an opportunity to reassess the long-term economic outlook.