Crypto Market Dynamics and Trend Analysis

Market Trends

macro environment

A director of a research institution predicts that the likelihood of the Solana ETF being listed in the United States by 2025 will exceed the previously expected 77%. This view is based on the plans of multiple companies to apply to regulators for the listing of a spot Solana ETF in June 2024. As market attention towards crypto market ETFs increases, prediction platforms indicate that the chance of the Solana ETF being approved has risen to 86%. This reflects the industry's expectation for more crypto asset ETFs to be listed, especially against the backdrop of certain political figures supporting cryptocurrencies. For the Solana ETF to be successfully listed, it needs to adopt a structure similar to that of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs and avoid being classified as a security to evade stricter regulations.

Web3 field

A researcher made several predictions about the crypto market in 2025:

1. The maturity of the MEV supply chain will intensify competition between exchanges and validators, but the front end will still maintain a monopoly.
2. The total market value of the DePIN market is expected to grow fivefold.
3. The application of encryption payment infrastructure in agency trading is limited, and traditional payment channels will continue to exist.
4. The role of stablecoins will shift from being a lubricant for DeFi to a true medium of exchange, with active addresses expected to exceed 50 million.
5. The boundaries between wallets and applications will become blurred, and the importance of universal L2 in chain abstract applications may diminish.

Hot Events

macro environment

A tech entrepreneur sparked a discussion about crypto trading taxes on social media. He mentioned a client who purchased a certain token for $7,000 and staked it for three months, achieving returns of up to 6,900%. However, after selling and withdrawing profits to invest in a new project, he encountered the developers running away, managing to liquidate only 10% of the funds. This led to a debate on whether gas fees in cryptocurrency transactions can be deducted from short-term capital gains tax. The statement caused the relevant token to rise by 124% in a short period.

Web3 field

A certain Ethereum charity fund recently completed the largest transaction in history, selling 3,690 ETH for an income of 12.47 million USD. This ETH came from an investor who participated in the Ethereum ICO in 2015, obtaining 100,000 ETH at the genesis block. Currently, this investor has sold 14,990 ETH at an average price of 2,409 USD, of which 13,190 ETH were sold through the charity fund. The investor still holds 85,000 ETH, worth approximately 293.8 million USD.

Hot Narrative

With the rapid rise of a certain AI agent on the crypto social platform, its market value reached 600 million USD in a short period, sparking an analysis of its core competitiveness, particularly the impact of its data aggregation technology. At the same time, as a leading provider of data aggregation and packaging infrastructure, a certain DAO and its tokens have also garnered attention. As the demand for data aggregation from both human and AI users increases, the value in this field is significantly rising.

The success of a certain AI agent stems from its unique model and powerful data scraping capabilities, allowing it to analyze multiple information streams in real-time and generate market insights. In contrast, a certain DAO supports the AI agent by aggregating data sources. Although the market capitalization of this DAO is only $32 million, its potential is considered enormous in the context of the development of the AI agent economy. With the introduction of new features and incentive mechanisms, the value of its token is expected to rise further.

Hot Projects

ZAILGO is an open-source AI agent and machine learning model platform, serving as an upgraded version of a certain framework. The platform integrates a certain blockchain and vector database, providing CI/CD support for Kubernetes and Docker. This enables users to develop and deploy applications more efficiently, optimizing the software development process using modern cloud-native technologies.

The project was initiated by a well-known developer, with a market cap that briefly surpassed 70 million USD, reaching an all-time high, and a 24-hour increase of 208%.