The US debt issue is becoming increasingly severe, but it remains difficult to accurately predict when a crisis will erupt. This complex situation involves various economic, political, and global factors, requiring us to analyze it from multiple perspectives.

Currently, the U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, accounting for nearly 100% of GDP. Even more concerning is the expectation that this ratio will continue to rise over the next decade. Interest expenses are projected to soar from $900 billion in 2024 to $1.6 trillion by 2034, which undoubtedly puts immense pressure on the finances.

Potential crisis trigger factors include:

1. Debt ceiling issue: This political deadlock has occurred repeatedly. Although it was temporarily resolved in May 2023, it may still trigger a crisis again. At the beginning of 2025, Treasury Secretary Yellen has indicated that special measures may need to be taken to avoid hitting the debt ceiling.

2. Inverted Yield Curve: Historical experience shows that after the inversion of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and the federal benchmark interest rate ends, an economic recession or financial crisis often occurs within 12-18 months. However, the specific timing still depends on the current economic environment.

3. Market confidence shaken: In April 2025, U.S. Treasury yields soared, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 4.48%, reflecting increased selling pressure on U.S. Treasuries. If investor confidence is further undermined, it could accelerate the onset of a crisis.

Nevertheless, the exact timing of the U.S. debt crisis remains difficult to predict. Some analysts believe it could be a gradual process rather than a sudden event. We need to continuously monitor the U.S. debt situation, policy direction, and changes in the global economic landscape to better anticipate potential risks.