Market Analysis and Outlook After the First Crypto Summit in the United States

Introduction

On March 7, 2025, the White House held the historic first "Crypto Summit". Prior to this, the market widely anticipated that the Trump administration would announce significant positive news, such as declaring an increase in Bitcoin purchases or incorporating more mainstream cryptocurrencies into the national reserves. This expectation drove the price of Bitcoin from $80,000 to nearly $95,000, with other mainstream cryptocurrencies also experiencing increases ranging from 5% to 25%.

However, the summit did not announce any large-scale coin purchase plans or substantial new policies, only reiterating its position of supporting industry development and moderate regulation. The market's unmet expectations led to a noticeable pullback after the summit, with Bitcoin falling 3% to 5% the next day, and other mainstream currencies generally retreating by 5% to 10%.

Nevertheless, compared to the strict controls of the previous government, the significant relaxation of current policies and regulatory environment still keeps the market relatively optimistic about the clarification of medium- to long-term regulations and the room for innovation. Some investors hold a cautiously optimistic view on the future direction of U.S. policies in the encryption field.

The Evolution of the U.S. Government's Attitude Towards Cryptocurrency

early cautious attitude

After the ICO bubble in 2017, U.S. regulators focused primarily on combating fraud, money laundering, and illegal capital flows, strengthening relevant law enforcement efforts, and requiring cryptocurrency exchanges to comply with anti-money laundering and customer identity verification regulations. The government mainly regulates cryptocurrency based on the existing legal framework and has not introduced specific federal legislation or regulatory sandboxes.

The attitude is wavering and law enforcement is becoming stricter.

During Trump's first term (2017-2020), he generally held a skeptical attitude towards cryptocurrencies, believing that they could undermine the position of the dollar. The government intensified enforcement against ICO fraud cases and proposed to strengthen regulation over self-custody wallets.

During the Biden administration (2021-2024), although an executive order on digital assets was issued, the enforcement efforts subsequently intensified. Regulatory agencies sued several large encryption companies, exacerbating market concerns about legal risks, which to some extent suppressed the participation of institutional investors.

The policy has shifted dramatically.

In January 2025, after Trump took office again, he quickly signed an executive order declaring that the United States would become the "global cryptocurrency capital." He revoked several regulatory policies from the Biden era, halted some lawsuits against cryptocurrency exchanges, and appointed industry insiders to key positions.

In late February, Trump signed an executive order to establish a "strategic Bitcoin reserve," but it was limited to retaining approximately 200,000 Bitcoins previously confiscated by the government, with no plans for additional purchases. This move sent a strong signal to the market regarding the U.S. government's holding of Bitcoin, but it also dashed the market's previous widespread expectations for large-scale purchases of various encryption currencies.

Market Expectations Before the Summit

The Trump administration hinted at the end of February through social media that it might include multiple encryption currencies in the "new U.S. cryptocurrency strategic reserve," sparking market expectations for a significant positive announcement from the government. The price of Bitcoin rose from $84,000 to nearly $95,000, and other major encryption currencies also saw notable increases.

Market liquidity has significantly increased, with trading volume and the number of open contracts in derivatives rapidly growing. Overall market sentiment is becoming optimistic, and investors' expectations for government backing are quickly being amplified.

However, the actual content of the executive order did not include any new procurement plans, only indicating that the government will not sell its current Bitcoin assets. This means that there is limited room for new buying in the short term, ultimately becoming one of the main reasons for the market correction after the summit.

Summit Highlights: Clear Policy Direction but Lack of Details

The first "Crypto Summit" held on March 7 attracted more than 20 key figures from the American encryption industry. Although the conference was promoted as "setting the tone for U.S. encryption regulatory policy for the next four years," no clear new policies or large-scale purchasing plans were ultimately announced.

Trump attended the opening of the summit for only about 30 minutes, stating that "the previous administration's war on encryption has ended," emphasizing that the government will provide regulatory certainty for the crypto market at the legislative level. The subsequent closed-door discussions were hosted by government officials, and attendees made some suggestions, but these suggestions did not receive any immediate commitments or guarantees.

The government reiterated that it will promote the development of the encryption industry through "friendly legislation and light-touch regulation." Although representatives from the Treasury and the Securities and Exchange Commission did not explicitly commit to withdrawing more lawsuits, they indicated that future considerations will prioritize industry needs.

No new executive orders or emergency bills were released at this summit, indicating that the government is still in the stage of collecting industry opinions and discussing regulatory details. Mainstream financial media are more focused on Trump's willingness to provide regulatory certainty for the encryption market through congressional legislation, believing that there has been a significant improvement compared to the previous situation, which was full of uncertainty and litigation.

Market Trend Analysis After the Summit

After the summit, the prices of Bitcoin and most mainstream coins have undergone corrections. The main reason is that the market quickly digested the gap between expectations and reality, leading to short-term selling pressure, and many investors chose to sell or temporarily wait and see.

Overall, the market sentiment has returned to rationality from the optimistic expectation of "favorable policies" and has begun to adjust for "overly high expectations." After Bitcoin lost the expectation of "government additional purchases," its price saw a short-term correction, but a significant drop has not yet occurred. Ethereum and XRP also declined along with the overall market trend, while most other mainstream coins are in a state of "ending short-term rising momentum and entering consolidation or correction."

In the derivatives market, funding rates have turned neutral or slightly negative, and the open interest has also decreased, reflecting a decline in the bullish leverage willingness in the market and a weakening of short-term speculative sentiment. Solana has shown a slight increase against the trend due to the listing of CME futures and ETFs in mid-March, creating a certain degree of independent market performance.

Although there has been a short-term pullback, in the context of significantly alleviated regulatory risks in the medium to long term, many institutions and long-term investors remain optimistic about the possibility of the U.S. introducing more specific legislation or guidelines in the future. Therefore, after experiencing a period of calm, the overall market still has the opportunity to regain buying momentum if the government announces specific favorable policies in the future.

Conclusion: Short-term fluctuations, long-term potential remains.

The first White House Crypto Summit, while not launching significant new policies or immediate legislative actions, clearly indicated that the U.S. government will support "light-touch regulation to encourage industry development." In the future, the U.S. may actively formulate bills or regulatory mechanisms, moving the market out of ambiguity or uncertainty. If relevant bills can be successfully implemented, it will encourage large financial institutions or tech companies to increase their investments.

Compared to the strong crackdown of the previous government, the current regulatory risks have relatively decreased. Many institutional investors have become more tolerant towards encryption assets, which may expand digital asset business. In the long run, "national-level reserves" and "government openness" are often important factors driving bull market cycles. Even if there is no large-scale cash purchase of coins this time, the market still expects more government cooperation projects or infrastructure investments in the future.

In the short term, there is a gap between market expectations and actual results, leading to a price pullback from its high. Technical analysis and derivatives data indicate that trading sentiment has entered a wait-and-see period, with investors waiting for clearer policy details or a favorable macroeconomic outlook.

In the medium to long term, as long as the U.S. government recognizes the legal status of encryption assets and is willing to adhere to a clear direction for regulatory rules, institutional funds and the developer ecosystem are still expected to continue flowing in. When macroeconomic conditions and regulatory variables gradually become clearer, the market may usher in a new wave of growth momentum. The current volatility is more about digesting excessive expectations from earlier, rather than a trend reversal. Everyone is paying attention to whether the White House can formalize the opinions from this summit and implement them into a new regulatory framework, which will become one of the key driving forces for the subsequent market development.