In-depth analysis of the underlying reasons for the current fluctuations in the crypto market: Value growth anxiety after BTC hits a new high

Recently, the crypto market has experienced severe fluctuations, with BTC prices oscillating between $94000 and $101000. There are two core reasons for this phenomenon.

First of all, on December 10, Microsoft officially rejected the "Bitcoin Fiscal Proposal" put forward by a think tank at its annual shareholder meeting. The proposal suggested that Microsoft diversify 1% of its total assets into BTC as a potential means to hedge against inflation. Although the market had some hope for this proposal, the board ultimately rejected it.

The price fluctuations triggered by this event reflect the current state of anxiety in the market. The focus is on what the new source of growth is after BTC's market value has surpassed its historical high. Recent signs indicate that some key figures in the crypto world are leveraging the wealth effect of a certain company to promote the financial strategy of allocating BTC on the balance sheets of more listed companies, in order to combat inflation and achieve performance growth, thereby increasing the adoption of BTC.

However, as a substitute for gold, BTC still has a long way to go to become a global store of value, and it is not easy to succeed in the short term. The reason gold can serve as a store of value is based on its unique physical properties and long-term cultural accumulation. In contrast, the value proposition of BTC, as a cultural perspective, is likely to contract rather than expand in the short to medium term.

There are mainly two reasons: First, the value proposition of BTC is top-down, and its acquisition relies on advanced technology and resources, which is not friendly to the underdeveloped countries where most of the global population resides. Second, the backlash against globalization and the challenge to the dollar hegemony may affect the acquisition cost of BTC as a primarily dollar-denominated asset, increasing the difficulty of promoting its value proposition.

Therefore, focusing on anti-inflation as a promotional focus in the short term may not be sufficient to attract "professional" clients to choose to allocate BTC instead of gold. Large listed companies may not aggressively choose to allocate BTC in the short term to cope with inflation.

In contrast, some publicly listed companies with weak growth may achieve overall revenue growth by allocating BTC, thereby promoting a financial strategy that elevates market value, which may be more easily recognized. This could become the core criterion for determining whether BTC can achieve new value growth in the short to medium term.

Against the backdrop of significant adjustments in the current U.S. economic structure, it is particularly important to implant a controllable core that drives economic growth into the stock market. BTC may become this core, taking over from AI as the new driving force of economic growth.

If small and medium-sized enterprises in the United States choose to allocate BTC reserves on their balance sheets, even if their main business is affected by external factors, policymakers can drive up BTC prices by promoting crypto-friendly policies, thereby stabilizing the stock market to some extent. This targeted stimulus is highly efficient and can even bypass the constraints of traditional monetary policy.

Therefore, in the upcoming U.S. political and economic cycle, this strategy may be a worthwhile option for policymakers and many small and medium-sized enterprises in the U.S. Its development process deserves close attention.