The 4-Year Cycle of Bitcoin, Potentially Ending with Asset Maturity ─ K33 Analysts Point Out | CoinDesk JAPAN

• K33 Research points out that the traditional 4-year price cycle of Bitcoin may no longer apply due to the evolution of the recognized role of this asset.
• While the impact of the halving of mining rewards is diminishing, the report stated that other macroeconomic factors are becoming more important due to the expansion of access for institutional investors and the growing interest from nations.
• Amid global tensions and inflationary pressures, analysts have stated that Bitcoin is becoming a "reactionary store of value."

According to the latest market report from K33 Research, the 4-year cycle that has characterized the boom-and-bust price fluctuations of Bitcoin (BTC) for years may become a thing of the past as the asset matures.

Bitcoin updated its all-time high in the year following the mining reward halving periods in 2012, 2016, and 2020. The past two bull markets peaked approximately 1060 days after the cycle bottom. The report suggests that if this pattern continues, there is a possibility of reaching a peak as early as mid-October.

However, analysts at K33 expect that as Bitcoin matures as an asset, this strategy will no longer apply.

The report points out that "the impact of halving is significantly smaller now than it was in the past." Previously, halving events triggered sudden supply shocks, which led to price surges. Now, as regulatory frameworks advance, access for institutional investors expands, and interest from state actors increases, the report states that other macroeconomic factors that encourage deviation from past cycle patterns may become more important.

The authors of the report stated, "In a world where tensions in global trade and inflationary pressures are rising, we believe that Bitcoin has transitioned from a speculative and recursive asset to a more established reactive store of value."

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