Recently, the cryptocurrency market has shown complex dynamics, with multiple factors jointly influencing the price trend of Bitcoin (BTC).

Analyses indicate that the Federal Reserve's policy direction is closely related to the BTC market. There are rumors that the chairperson of the Federal Reserve may change, and if a new chairperson who is more inclined to lower interest rates takes over, it could push the BTC price to break through $150,000. It is worth noting that some high-ranking officials' families and their confidants are said to have made large purchases during the market downturn, with an average cost of about $80,000 to $90,000.

The average holding cost of BTC is also an important factor that affects the market. Currently, about 30% of the chips are concentrated around $100,000, while institutional investors are still continuously increasing their holdings. For example, there have been reports that a certain institution purchased 797 BTC at a unit price of approximately $117,451. The market generally believes that if the average cost is lower, although the market may rise in the short term, the potential risk is also greater; on the contrary, if the average cost is higher, there may still be significant upside potential in the future.

The impact of macro events on BTC prices cannot be ignored. The market is closely watching potential personnel changes at the Federal Reserve Chairman, which could trigger a sell-off of the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds, with some funds possibly flowing into the gold and BTC markets. In addition, the release of economic data is also one of the influencing factors, as the trend of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will directly affect BTC's short-term performance.

From the perspective of market participants, retail investors have experienced a round of adjustments in the past six months, while institutions have taken the opportunity to increase their holdings. Historical experience shows that the peak of a bull market is often accompanied by a frenzy of buying from retail investors. Currently, retail sentiment in the cryptocurrency market has just begun to warm up, the inflow of stablecoins to exchanges has increased, but the supply of BTC has not seen significant growth, which may indicate that a new round of market trends is just beginning.

In the face of the current market situation, investors need to maintain a cautiously optimistic attitude, closely monitor changes in various influencing factors, and at the same time remain patient and operate carefully.