Analysis of the 2024 US Election Situation: Multiple Factors Behind the Rise in Trump’s Support Rate

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, data from market prediction platforms indicate that Trump's support rate is gradually rising, with the latest projections showing he has garnered 53% support, while his main competitor Harris remains at 46%. This change in data has sparked widespread attention, especially in financial markets and the cryptocurrency community. As the Republican candidate, the rise in Trump's support not only reflects his advantages in economic policy, voter mobilization, and party cohesion, but also reveals the challenges Harris faces in the campaign.

This article will delve into the key factors that have led to Trump's rising approval ratings, including the Democratic Party's economic policies, the shift in attitudes among moderate voters, the influence of political figures in key states, and the support of the cryptocurrency industry for Trump, in order to help readers gain a more comprehensive understanding of this complex electoral dynamic.

1. Harris's Economic Policies Spark Controversy

The economic policy proposed by Harris is one of the core elements of her campaign. However, this economic policy has sparked widespread controversy in American society, especially among centrist voters.

1. Controversy over Price Control Policies

Among Harris's economic policies, the most controversial is the proposed price control measures. These measures aim to limit companies' pricing power on necessities through legislative means to prevent price gouging. However, although this policy theoretically has some effect in controlling inflation and protecting consumer interests, in practice, economists and policy experts widely question its feasibility.

Many experts believe that price controls may lead to market distortions, causing supply chain issues and shortages of goods. Editorials point out that Harris's price control policies could undermine the supply and demand balance in the market, potentially leading to black markets and hoarding. This concern is not unfounded, as historical price control measures have often failed due to poor market reactions. Therefore, while Harris's policy may attract some voters hoping to reduce living costs in the short term, it could lead to economic instability in the long run. This has resulted in a decline in her support among centrist voters, especially among those who are highly concerned about economic stability and market freedom.

2. Challenges of Housing Policy

Harris's housing policy has also played a complex role in the election. She proposed a plan to address the housing shortage by building a large number of affordable homes for the middle class. This policy seems reasonable on paper, especially in the face of America's increasingly severe housing crisis, as increasing housing supply is undoubtedly a direct and effective solution.

However, the problem is that the execution cost of this policy is extremely high, and its economic feasibility and effectiveness have been widely questioned. For example, Harris promised to build 3 million affordable housing units in her first term, but the sources of funding and the details of policy implementation have not been clearly stated. Furthermore, she even proposed a commitment not to increase the tax burden on families earning less than $400,000 a year, which means that the funding for the entire project may rely on massive government deficits or raising taxes on the wealthy, which will undoubtedly exacerbate criticism both within and outside the Democratic Party.

3. Attraction and Limitations for the Middle Class

Harris's economic policy centers on improving the quality of life for the middle class, with a particular emphasis on increasing the child tax credit and controlling medical costs to enhance the economic security of the middle class. These measures theoretically help alleviate the economic pressures faced by the American middle class, especially against the backdrop of high childcare costs and medical expenses.

However, as some critics have pointed out, while these policies have been welcomed by some voters, the issues of their long-term sustainability and funding sources remain unresolved challenges. The votes of the middle class are crucial for any candidate, but if the implementation of the policies goes awry, those votes may shift to opponents. Although Harris's policy design has an idealized color, potential issues in the implementation process, such as the possible increase in government fiscal deficits, undermine the actual appeal of these policies to the middle class.

2. The Attitudes of American Moderate Voters are Uncertain

Centrist voters often play a key role in American elections. Their positions typically do not lean towards either side and focus more on the candidates' actual policies and their impact on the economy and society. Against the backdrop of the controversy surrounding Harris's economic policies, support for her among centrist voters has begun to decline. In contrast, although Trump's economic policies are controversial, his clear stance on tax cuts and economic stimulus aligns more closely with the expectations of centrist voters regarding economic development.

In addition, Trump's support for the free market and the economic measures he implemented during his presidency, such as tax cuts and deregulation, have garnered some recognition from moderate voters. In contrast, Harris's economic policies are seen as too radical, particularly regarding price controls and housing subsidies, making it difficult for her to gain support among moderates.

3. The Impact of the Pennsylvania Governor's Absence on the Election

Governor Josh Shapiro's absence has negatively impacted Harris's election campaign. As a key swing state, the attitudes of voters in Pennsylvania are crucial to the national election results. Shapiro's absence may be interpreted as dissatisfaction within the party regarding Harris's economic policies or campaign strategy, and this dissatisfaction could further weaken Harris's support in the state.

In this case, voters may doubt Harris's campaign ability and party cohesion, turning to support the more certain Trump. Shapiro's absence not only affected Harris's prospects in Pennsylvania but also indirectly impacted her performance in other swing states. For Harris, ensuring party unity and support in key states is crucial for her campaign success, but Shapiro's absence undoubtedly increases her challenges in this regard.

4. Trump and the Interaction with the Cryptocurrency Industry

Trump's support for the cryptocurrency industry is another important factor in his rising approval ratings. Although Trump initially had a negative attitude towards cryptocurrencies, he gradually changed his stance and began to actively support the crypto industry as the market developed.

In the 2024 election, Trump became one of the first major candidates to openly accept cryptocurrency donations. His campaign team announced that they would accept donations in various cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP. This move not only demonstrates his open attitude towards cryptocurrencies but also establishes a closer connection with the crypto community.

The decision to accept cryptocurrency donations is a strategic move that not only expands Trump's voter base but also attracts young voters and tech enthusiasts who are skeptical of the traditional financial system. These voters often have a strong affinity for decentralization, free markets, and financial innovation, and by accepting cryptocurrency donations, Trump sends them a clear signal: he supports this emerging field and is willing to advocate for it politically.

In addition to accepting cryptocurrency donations, Trump made a series of policy commitments that further solidified his position in the crypto community. One of the most noteworthy promises is the pardon of the Silk Road founder. Silk Road was one of the earliest and most famous cryptocurrency trading platforms, and the case of its founder holds great symbolic significance within the crypto community. This commitment from Trump not only won him the favor of many cryptocurrency supporters but also conveyed his tolerant attitude towards the cryptocurrency industry to the outside world.

In addition, Trump stated that if he is elected again, he will promote the inclusion of Bitcoin into the strategic reserves of the United States and consider using Bitcoin to address some national debt issues. While these proposals have sparked widespread controversy in mainstream finance, they have received a warm response within the crypto community. Cryptocurrency supporters believe that these initiatives will greatly enhance the legitimacy and global status of cryptocurrencies, bringing greater development opportunities to the industry.

V. Election Spending by Cryptocurrency Companies in the 2024 U.S. Election Cycle

According to relevant reports, nearly half of the corporate political donations in the 2024 election cycle come from cryptocurrency companies. These companies influence election outcomes by supporting candidates that align with their interests. The cryptocurrency industry's support for Trump is not only reflected in rhetoric but also tangibly affects the election through financial assistance.

This corporate-level support further consolidates Trump's position in the crypto community and related industries. As more crypto companies and individual investors direct funds toward political action committees (PACs) supporting Trump, his financial and promotional advantages in the election are strengthened, which directly drives up his polling rate in prediction markets.

Conclusion: Looking forward to the elected candidates further relaxing Web3 policies

In summary, the rise in Trump's election rate is the result of multiple factors working together. Harris's economic policies have sparked controversy, making it difficult for her to gain support, especially among moderate voters. The absence of the Governor of Pennsylvania has heightened concerns about division within the party, further weakening Harris's support in key states. Meanwhile, Trump's supportive stance towards the cryptocurrency industry has earned him widespread recognition in this emerging market. Additionally, the significant political donations from crypto companies have provided strong support for Trump's campaign.

In the coming months, Trump and Harris will face significant challenges. They need to continuously adjust their strategies to gain more support from voters, especially among key swing state voters. For Trump, continuing to solidify his position in the crypto industry and expanding his appeal to moderate voters will be key to maintaining his lead. Meanwhile, Harris needs to find a breakthrough to regain the trust of moderate voters while strengthening party unity to prepare for the upcoming electoral climax.

Regardless of the final outcome, this election will have a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market in the United States and globally. For investors and market participants, closely monitoring the policy direction of the two candidates will be key to formulating future investment strategies.