BTC Price Prediction: Could Bitcoin price rise to 131,000 USD?

Question

As of July 11, 2025, after Bitcoin (BTC) reached a historic high of $118,000, market analysts generally believe that multiple favourable factors are driving BTC towards a target of $131,000. If sentiment and funding conditions align, this target is expected to be achieved within the year.

Institutional capital is pouring in on a large scale, laying the foundation for the upward trend.

The rise of Bitcoin in 2025 is primarily driven by institutional investors, with two major phenomena confirming this trend:

The capital siphoning effect of spot ETFs has resulted in a total net inflow of 14.4 billion USD for Bitcoin spot ETFs as of early July, with BlackRock alone attracting 4.9 billion USD in a single month. Traditional institutions such as Goldman Sachs have also collaborated with Coinbase to launch Bitcoin collateral loan services, participating much more deeply than in previous cycles.
The "Bitcoinization" of corporate balance sheets: 228 listed companies globally have incorporated BTC into their reserve assets, with a total holding of 820,000 coins (accounting for 4.1% of the circulating supply). A typical representative, MicroStrategy (MSTR), holds nearly 600,000 coins at an average cost of 68,000 USD, with a floating profit exceeding 200%. Companies like Tesla have further increased their holdings through convertible bond financing, forming a new capital paradigm of "issuing shares to purchase coins."

Deep Impact: The corporate configuration shifts from "tactical" to "strategic", with Bitcoin being recognized as a "core anti-inflation asset", significantly reducing market selling pressure.

Breaking Regulatory Barriers and Shifting Macroeconomic Trends, Catalyzing Market Sentiment

Regulatory clarity removes uncertainty

The U.S. "GENIUS Act" has passed the Senate vote, establishing a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, requiring a 1:1 reserve of dollars or U.S. Treasury bonds, and banning algorithmic stablecoins. Circle (the issuer of USDC) saw its stock price soar by 600%, opening up traditional funding channels due to compliance advantages.
The White House reveals that it is building a strategic Bitcoin reserve, planning to increase holdings in a "budget-neutral" manner, strengthening the national endorsement of BTC value.

monetary easing expectations restart

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have been postponed to September, but the decline in inflation data (June core CPI year-on-year at 2.7%) creates conditions for easing. Historical data shows that the average return rate of Bitcoin during interest rate cut cycles is 128%, and the current market liquidity shift expectations continue to heat up.

##Technical Analysis and On-Chain Data Release Positive Signals

Holder behavior change: The 2025 "Activity Metric" indicates that 62% of BTC has not moved for at least a year, significantly up from the 2018 cycle (42%). Whale wallets (holding 100-10,000 BTC) increased their holdings by 800,000 coins in a single month, with the accumulation trend unaffected by price fluctuations.
Volatility structurally declines: In the first half of the year, Bitcoin's decline rarely exceeded 25%, with volatility approaching that of traditional blue-chip stocks. On-chain transaction fees remain low at $0.15-0.30, indicating a shift of speculative trading to the futures market, while the spot market enters a "long-term holding driven" phase.
Key resistance breakthrough: BTC broke through 109,000 USD and tested 110,360 USD in early July. If it stabilizes above 110,000 USD, it will open a technical upward channel to 118,000-131,000 USD.

##Risk Warning: Stagnant Inflation and Policy Lag Effects Despite the positive trend, two major risks still need to be vigilant:

Tariffs raise inflation: The Trump administration has imposed tariffs on imported goods (such as 50% on Brazil), and the cost transmission may push inflation higher in June-August. If CPI rebounds more than expected, the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts, triggering a "hawkish delay" impact.
Economic growth slowdown: JPMorgan has lowered its U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2% to 1.3%, and the risk of stagflation may suppress risk asset preferences.

##Conclusion: The Key Path of 131,000 USD If the following conditions are met, Bitcoin is expected to reach 131,000 USD in the second half of 2025:

Institutional ETF inflows remain above an average of 2 billion dollars per month;
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September, releasing liquidity;
Inflation is controllable, avoiding policy fluctuations;
The regulatory framework was passed by the House of Representatives and signed into effect.

As Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick stated: "Bitcoin is transitioning from a speculative asset linked to risk to a macro tool for global capital allocation." The second half of 2025 will be a historic turning point for the deep integration of traditional finance and the crypto ecosystem.

Current strategy: Focus on the support level of 110,000 USD during short-term fluctuations, and increase positions if breaking through 112,000 USD; long-term holders should adopt dollar-cost averaging to mitigate policy and black swan risks.

Author: Blog Team *This content does not constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation. You should always seek independent professional advice before making any investment decisions. *Please note that Gate may restrict or prohibit all or part of its services from restricted areas. Please read the user agreement for more information, link:

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