Bitcoin breaks through the $100,000 mark, behavior of long-term holders draws attention

Bitcoin recently hit a historic high, once again surpassing the $100,000 mark, injecting new vitality into the market. However, as prices continue to rise, the market has begun to follow a key question: Are those most experienced and successful Bitcoin long-term holders starting to cash out?

This article will explore the recent behavior of long-term holders by analyzing on-chain data, and whether the current profit-taking phenomenon is a cause for concern or merely a normal component of the Bitcoin market cycle.

Signs of Profit Taking Emerge

The spent output profit ratio (SOPR) can intuitively reflect the realized profit situation of the entire network. By observing the data from the past few weeks, we can clearly see that the realization of profits is on the rise. Especially after the price of Bitcoin broke through the 74,000-75,000 USD range to a new high of 100,000 USD, a considerable number of investors chose to sell Bitcoin to realize profits.

However, while this may raise concerns about a slowdown in upward momentum in the short term, we must place it in the broader context of on-chain data to understand it. This behavior is not uncommon in a bull market, and this phenomenon alone is insufficient to determine that the market has reached a cyclical peak.

Long-term holder supply continues to grow

Long-term holder supply refers to the total amount of Bitcoin held by wallets that have held for more than 155 days. Despite significant price increases, this metric continues to rise. This trend does not necessarily indicate that there is a large volume of new buying activity currently, but rather signifies that more Bitcoin is "aging" into a long-term holding state over time, remaining untransferred or unsold.

In other words, many investors who bought in late 2024 or early 2025 are still holding on and are transitioning into long-term holders. This is a healthy market dynamic that typically occurs in the early or mid-stages of a bull market, and has not yet shown signs of large-scale selling.

HODL Waves Analysis

HODL Waves data is layered based on the holding time of wallets. Focusing on wallets that have held coins for 6 months or longer, we find that over 70% of the Bitcoin supply is currently controlled by medium to long-term holders.

It is worth noting that although this ratio is still high, it has started to decline slightly, indicating that some long-term holders may be gradually selling, even though the overall supply of long-term holders is still increasing. The main driver of the growth in long-term supply seems to come from short-term holders gradually "aging" into the holding period of over 155 days, rather than large-scale purchases of new funds.

Short-term Changes and Distribution Ratio

In order to improve the accuracy of the analysis, we can compare the data of "recent market entrants (0-1 month)" with that of "mid-term holders (1-5 years)". This comparison of coin holding age distribution can provide more timely and frequent insights into distribution behavior.

Historical data shows that when the ratio of 1-5 year holders to new holders sharply declines, it often coincides with the top of Bitcoin prices. Conversely, when this ratio rises rapidly, indicating that more Bitcoins are flowing into the hands of experienced investors, it usually signals a significant price increase.

Changes in the behavior of long-term investors are one of the important indicators for assessing market sentiment and the sustainability of price trends. Historical experience shows that long-term holders tend to outperform short-term traders by buying during market panic and holding for the long term. By analyzing the age distribution structure of Bitcoin, we can more accurately grasp market tops and bottoms without overly relying on short-term price movements or sentiment.

Conclusion

Current data shows that long-term holders are only exhibiting slight profit-taking behavior, with the scale far from the levels seen during past market tops. Although there is indeed some degree of cashing out, the pace at which it occurs seems manageable and is a normal phenomenon in a healthy market environment.

Considering the current bull market phase, as well as the participation of institutional and retail investors, data indicates that we are still in a structurally strong phase. With new funds continuing to flow in, Bitcoin's price still has the potential for further increase.