From 2012 to 2015, the price of gold experienced a significant falling period, with a cumulative decline of 39%. The decline during this phase was mainly caused by the following factors:

#PAXG# 1. **Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Shift**
- **Exit Quantitative Easing (QE)**: In September 2012, the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policy (QE) entered its final phase, and market expectations for the Fed to cease bond purchases and initiate a rate hike cycle intensified. This directly undermined the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset, as the anticipation of interest rate hikes would increase the yields of dollar-denominated assets (such as bonds), raising the opportunity cost of holding gold.
- **Interest Rate Hike Cycle Initiated**: In December 2015, the Federal Reserve officially announced an interest rate hike, ending a seven-year period of zero interest rate policy. The interest rate hike led to a strengthening of the US Dollar Index, while the price of gold typically has a negative correlation with the dollar, further suppressing gold prices.

### 2. **Global Economic Recovery and Increased Risk Appetite**
- **Funds Flowing to High-Risk Assets**: As the global economy gradually recovers from the 2008 financial crisis, investors are more inclined to allocate funds to riskier assets with higher returns, such as the stock market and real estate. For instance, during this period, the US stock market was in a long-term bull market, attracting a large amount of capital and weakening the investment demand for gold.
- **Decreased demand for hedging**: Geopolitical risks have relatively eased (such as the absence of major international conflicts), and the global economy has entered a period of "great easing," leading to a significant decline in the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

### 3. **Gold market supply and demand imbalance**
- **Supply Overhang**: The increase in gold mining output, coupled with investors selling gold at high prices to realize profits, has led to a surplus in market supply. Additionally, the redemption pressure from investment tools like gold ETFs has intensified the selling spree.
- **Weak demand**: The demand growth in major gold consumption countries such as China and India is slowing down, and the central bank's gold purchases had not yet become a major force supporting gold prices before 2015.

### 4. **The strengthening of the US dollar and the easing of inflationary pressures**
- The US dollar index strengthened during this period, reducing the attractiveness of gold priced in dollars for holders of other currencies.
- The global inflation level is relatively low, diminishing the value of gold as an inflation hedge. The overall weakness in commodity prices has also further weighed down gold.

### 5. **Market Sentiment and Technical Sell-off**
- After reaching historic highs in 2011, the gold market showed clear signs of a bubble. As prices corrected, technical sell-offs and stop-loss trades intensified the falling trend.

### Summary
The bear market in gold during this period is the result of multiple overlapping factors, with the core driver being the shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy (exit from QE and interest rate hikes) and the change in risk appetite brought about by the global economic recovery. In addition, the supply-demand imbalance and the strengthening of the dollar have also played a role in exacerbating the situation. Although gold still possesses value retention properties in the long term, the market logic in the short term is more influenced by macroeconomic policies and the flow of funds.