Jin10 data compilation: What are the highlights of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision?

Question

1. Interest rate expectations: The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% at this meeting, the third consecutive meeting. At present, the federal funds rate futures show that the market expects a 28.4% probability of a rate cut in June, pricing in a cumulative rate cut of 78bp for the whole of this year. 2. Voting ratio: At the last meeting, the members unanimously agreed to keep the interest rate unchanged, but Governor Waller opposed the balance sheet reduction adjustment. The meeting is expected to remain unanimous, but Waller may vote against it if the pace of balance sheet reduction changes. 3. Pace of balance sheet reduction: Pay attention to whether there will be any adjustments to the pace of balance sheet reduction. It is expected to maintain the pace of balance sheet reduction in March, that is, to maintain the upper limit of US debt reduction at $5 billion per month, and the upper limit of MBS reduction at $35 billion per month. 4. Wording of the statement: It will be interesting to see if the statement will adjust the wording of "increased uncertainty about the economic outlook" in March to reflect the increased uncertainty, and adjust the wording of "economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace" to reflect weak Q1 GDP data. Expressions of "labor market conditions remain strong" and "inflation remains elevated" are likely to be retained. Close attention to "external factors" (i.e., tariffs) may be expressed in the statement. 5. Powell's press conference: Likely to continue to talk about instability, expressing the position that there is no need to rush to adjust policy and wait for the situation to become clearer. Keep an eye out for commentary on recent economic data, as well as the impact of U.S. trade policy on the economic outlook. In addition, Powell is likely to respond to Trump's recent criticism that he has been too slow to cut interest rates. 6. Others: If interest rates remain unchanged at this meeting, Trump is expected to step up his firepower to lash Powell and call for interest rate cuts after the decision.