June 25th, Jinshi Data, the International Bank of the Netherlands stated that from the perspective of the forward rate curve, the pricing of British interest rates is still so close to the United States, which is worth noting. The market believes that the rate cuts of the two central banks this year are both around 45 basis points, and the final interest rates of the upcoming easing cycle are between 3.30-3.40%. Our view is that starting from the rate cut in August, British interest rates will be repriced to a lower level, which will lead to the depreciation of the pound. Before the general election on July 4th, we will not hear any news from the Bank of England. However, afterwards, we will expect the more moderate members among the seven members who voted to support the unchanged interest rate last week to speak out. The uncertainty of the Eurozone situation indicates that the euro/pound may be difficult to break through 0.8490 in the short term. However, if the US interest rates also decline and the Bank of England adopts a dovish attitude in July, then cross rates such as the pound/Norwegian krone may decline next month.
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Gate.io: Market pricing of interest rates in the UK and the US is too close.
June 25th, Jinshi Data, the International Bank of the Netherlands stated that from the perspective of the forward rate curve, the pricing of British interest rates is still so close to the United States, which is worth noting. The market believes that the rate cuts of the two central banks this year are both around 45 basis points, and the final interest rates of the upcoming easing cycle are between 3.30-3.40%. Our view is that starting from the rate cut in August, British interest rates will be repriced to a lower level, which will lead to the depreciation of the pound. Before the general election on July 4th, we will not hear any news from the Bank of England. However, afterwards, we will expect the more moderate members among the seven members who voted to support the unchanged interest rate last week to speak out. The uncertainty of the Eurozone situation indicates that the euro/pound may be difficult to break through 0.8490 in the short term. However, if the US interest rates also decline and the Bank of England adopts a dovish attitude in July, then cross rates such as the pound/Norwegian krone may decline next month.