The sleeping Bitcoin whale awakens after 12 years: the transfer of 400 BTC raises concerns about dumping, with on-chain signals indicating market stability.

A Bitcoin (BTC) wallet that had been dormant for 12 years was activated for the first time on September 28, transferring approximately 400 BTC worth $44 million. This wealth, originally funded by miners 15 years ago, has skyrocketed in value by 830 times since the wallet went dormant. This event led to a surge in the “coin days destroyed (CDD)” metric, which traditionally signals a market top. However, the latest on-chain data shows that CDD has significantly dropped from its peak to below the annual average, while the “spent output profit ratio (SOPR)” is approaching 1, indicating that long positions holders (LTHs) are becoming more patient and selling pressure is easing. Although BTC still experiences fluctuations in the short term, the calmness of these on-chain metrics suggests that the market outlook is stabilizing, and bullish momentum remains intact.

12 Years of Sleeping Giant Whales Awaken: 400 BTC Transferred with Amazing Returns

A dormant Wallet address holding BTC for over ten years, “1ArUG…zwaWT”, was activated for the first time on September 28, and subsequently transferred out approximately 400 BTC (worth 44 million USD) in total.

• Asset Origin: On-chain analysis platforms Lookonchain and Arkham Intelligence report that this batch of BTC was originally deposited to this address by miners 15 years ago.
• Amazing returns: During the 12 years of dormancy, the price of Bitcoin soared from about 135 USD to over 111,800 USD at the time of writing, an increase in value of approximately 830 times.
• Transfer method: 400 BTC was divided into multiple almost equal batches of 15 BTC each, clearing out the long-term idle account.

Although the identity of the wallet holders and the purpose of the transfer remain unknown, this action echoes two other large whale activities in September, including the transfer of 1,000 BTC by another dormant whale on September 17, and the exchange of 35,991 BTC for 886,371 ETH by a Satoshi-era whale on September 15.

On-chain Indicator Analysis: From Market Top Signals to Stability

The transfer behavior of giant whales is directly reflected in key on-chain metrics, but subsequent data changes provide a more constructive outlook.

1. Coin Days Destroyed (CDD)

• Initial Surge: The CDD indicator has sharply risen recently due to the transfer of long-dormant old coins. CDD measures the weight of spent old coins, with its peak typically viewed as a signal of the market top, indicating that long-term holders are taking profits.
• Trend Cooling: However, CryptoQuant reports that the monthly CDD has significantly decreased from a peak of 1.3 million coins to about 650,000, below its annual average. This indicates that the number of long-term holders (LTHs) sending to exchanges is decreasing.

2. Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR)

(Source: Bitbo)

• Profit margin decline: SOPR measures the profitability of spent BTC (selling price/buying price). This indicator is currently at 1.0053, indicating that the average profit from recent sales is very small.
• Patient Return: From the monthly data, SOPR has decreased from 3 (average 200% profit) to 1.70 (average 70% profit).

These indicators collectively suggest that the selling activity of long-term holders (LTHs) is slowing down and becoming more patient. This may alleviate the downward pressure on BTC in the short term and indicate that market sentiment is shifting from profit-taking to stability.

BTC Price Trends and Technical Outlook

• Short-term Fluctuation: The price of BTC continues to fluctuate, slightly dropping 0.16% to $112,101.08 in the past 24 hours. Short-term fluctuations have given short positions a certain degree of control.
• Bullish fundamentals: Despite the short-term fluctuation risk, technical indicators still suggest that bullish sentiment remains intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently maintaining above 70 in the strong zone, although this overbought reading also indicates the risk of a short-term pullback.

Conclusion

The awakening of the giant whale that has been dormant for 12 years undoubtedly brought great attention to the market and a temporary CDD impact, raising concerns about the market top. However, the subsequent calm in on-chain data, especially the decline in CDD and SOPR approaching 1, indicates that the mass profit-taking by long-term holders (LTHs) is slowing down. These signals suggest that the BTC market is gradually moving towards a more stable structure. Even with short-term retracement risks (indicated by RSI overbought), broader bullish momentum is still expected to continue. As the whales continue to take profits at high levels, the stabilization of market sentiment and the alleviation of selling pressure provide a solid foundation for BTC to consolidate its price levels.