$ETH is showing relative strength around $2,513 while most names on the screen are red. I’m interested in a long if buyers defend the $2,500 area and reclaim $2,515 with momentum. I’d rather buy the retest than chase the current price. Entry: $2,505–$2,515 Confirmation: Hold above $2,500 + reclaim $2,515 SL: $2,475 TP1: $2,545 TP2: $2,580 TP3: $2,620 TP4: $2,675 R:R: ~1:5 If ETH loses $2,475, the bullish setup is invalid. I’m only taking it if the structure confirms.

September 4 BTC/ETH Daily Market Report丨NFP hits tonight; beware a “data whipsaw” after the surge “Jiang Feng’s Trading Strategy Diary” — Issue 38 I took a trip these past two days and did not pay much attention to the charts. By the time I returned, I found that the market had quietly blindsided me. In Issue 37, the BTC short position opened around 79,300–80,500 was eventually stopped out around 80,800. The original plan was to wait for the market to pull back, but the market instead stabbed back, stopping out the short position before BTC subsequently surged as high as around 82,282. As for ETH, the short position around 2,485–2,565 has not triggered its stop-loss and remains in floating loss. Just continue holding it. That is trading: admit it when you get the direction wrong, leave when the stop-loss is hit, and even when the market shows no respect, there is no point arguing with it. I. Why did the market suddenly surge last night? This rally did not happen without reason. The US initial jobless claims released last night came in at 206,000, slightly above the market expectation of around 205,000, indicating some cooling in the labor market. At the same time, Fed Governor Waller sent relatively dovish signals. Waller said that if the upcoming inflation data continues to improve, he would tend to keep rates unchanged at the September meeting; if inflation rises again, he still would not rule out supporting a rate hike. This was a clear contrast with the market’s previous concerns about a September rate hike. After Waller’s remarks, market pricing for a September rate hike fell noticeably, while the dollar and US Treasury yields weakened in tandem. Risk assets rebounded rapidly, and BTC surged from around 77,000 to above 82,000. But it is important to note that Waller did not announce that the Fed was shifting toward easing. His core logic remains “data dependent”: if inflation continues to cool, rates may remain unchanged in September; if inflation heats up again, a rate hike remains possible. Therefore, the market is not currently trading on the basis that the Fed has already turned dovish, but rather that concerns about a September rate hike have temporarily declined. These are two completely different concepts. II. The real test tonight: US nonfarm payrolls At 20:30 tonight, the US August nonfarm payrolls data will be released. The current market expectation is for 56,000 new nonfarm jobs. ADP employment data had already shown a clear slowdown, further increasing the importance of tonight’s payrolls report. The market’s biggest characteristic now is that the Fed is no longer providing forward guidance, and its judgment on subsequent policy is highly dependent on economic data. Therefore, tonight’s payrolls data could alter inflation expectations through the employment figures, further influence expectations for the Fed’s September policy, and consequently drive volatility in the dollar, US Treasuries, BTC, and ETH. If payrolls are significantly weaker than expected, the market may further trade on “no September rate hike,” giving Bitcoin an opportunity to continue rising. Conversely, if payrolls are significantly stronger than expected, especially if both employment and wages strengthen, the market may raise rate-hike expectations again. The dollar and Treasury yields would rebound, putting BTC’s latest expectation-driven rally to the test. Therefore, the biggest risk tonight is not the direction itself, but that when the data is released, the market may first sweep stop-losses before moving in its true direction. Heavy positions are not recommended for betting on the data tonight. Use light positions and tight stop-losses, and wait for the market to show its direction.  BTC: From the chart perspective, BTC has rapidly surged from around 77,000 to above 82,000. The short-term gain is already substantial. The key area to watch above BTC is 82,000–82,600, which is an important short-term resistance zone. Around 82,800 is a crucial level for the entire bearish structure. If BTC merely rises to around 82,000–82,600 before pulling back, short opportunities will still exist in the short term. However, if the 4-hour chart can effectively hold above 82,800, bears must exercise caution. Once 82,800 is broken and a pullback confirmation forms, the price could later reach around 84,400 and 85,800, or even higher. Therefore, 82,800 is not ordinary resistance but the key level that the bears need to defend in this bearish move. BTC Trading Strategy If BTC rebounds to around 82,000–82,600 and shows clear rejection at the highs, cautiously attempt a short position with a light position. Stop-loss: 83,600; first target: 80,800; second target: 79,000; third target: 76,000 If 76,000 is further broken decisively, continue watching around 75,000 ～73,000 ～70,000 Note that heavy short positions are not recommended before or after tonight’s payrolls release. If the data is clearly positive for risk assets, BTC could break directly above 82,800, and the bears could once again face rapid short squeezing.  ETH: 2,535–2,565 remains the short-term bearish observation zone, while ETH is currently around 2,510. BTC and ETH are now very close to the first resistance zone. Focus on 2,535–2,565, the first short-term resistance. If this zone breaks, 2,600–2,650 will be the second resistance zone. Above that, 2,680 is currently a very important medium-term resistance level for ETH. ETH Trading Strategy If a rebound to around 2,535–2,565 is rejected at the highs, cautiously attempt a short position with a light position. Stop-loss: 2,620; first target: around 2,480; second target: around 2,435; third target: 2,350. If it breaks further decisively, continue watching around 2,275 ～2,210 ～ 2,125 ETH 2,680 is the bears’ final important line of defense. Once the 4-hour chart effectively holds above 2,680, there is no point stubbornly holding the short position and the loss should be acknowledged promptly. After last night’s sharp rally, BTC and ETH have entered key resistance zones. Tonight also happens to coincide with the payrolls release. Therefore, today’s market may follow two completely different scenarios: Scenario One: Payrolls are weak, with employment significantly below expectations, and the market further trades on no September rate hike. BTC could then break through 82,800, 84,400, and 85,800 ETH could break through 2,565, 2,600, and 2,650, or even 2,680. In this case, the bears must admit they are wrong. Scenario Two: Payrolls are stronger than expected, with employment significantly better than expected and wages also strong. The market raises rate-hike expectations again, while the dollar and Treasury yields rebound. BTC’s rally driven by no-rate-hike expectations and short covering could then see profit-taking. The core issue today is not whether “BTC must rise” or “must fall,” but that a bullish breakout is favored above 82,800, while a failed push higher around 82,000–82,600 favors a bearish pullback. If BTC holds above 82,800, the bears retreat; if ETH holds above 2,680, the bears retreat. ⚠️: Remember to use light positions and strictly maintain stop-losses before and after tonight’s payrolls release. ⚠️: All entry and exit levels above are subject to deviations: BTC ±100 points, ETH ±5 points ⚠️: The above views represent Jiang Feng’s personal opinion only. Please assess them rationally and remember not to follow blindly! #Gate用户突破6000万 #BTC收复8万美元 #非农就业报告即将揭晓 $ETH ‌$BTC ‌

I originally wanted to cut my losses and sacrifice to the heavens, but the heavens weren’t appeased—the meat roasted itself. When $BTC plunged intraday, it was terrifying, but the key level held. I figured it was just a shakeout and directly signaled to open a long. It has now climbed from 78263.6 to 80898.7, with a return of +584.53%. That feels amazing—this grind was worth it. 🔥 Take profits when it’s time: lock in 80% first, and set the remaining 20% at the entry price for protection. Don’t let cooked ducks fly away. It’s better to miss a limit-up move than catch a falling knife and end up covered in blood. The prerequisite for compounding is staying alive; the shortcut to getting rich overnight is often going to zero. For those who haven’t boarded yet, don’t rush in now—chasing the trade can easily leave you stranded at the top. We’ll reassess when a new structure emerges, and I’ll signal it immediately. $BNB $ETH