August 11 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis 😇 News: Strategy reduces holdings: The company disclosed that it sold 1,690 BTC between August 3 and 9, raising approximately $108.6 million to buy back STRC preferred shares. Its holdings have now fallen to approximately 840,447 BTC. This was one of several small-scale sales this year, interpreted by the market as short-term liquidity management, but it has intensified short-term selling pressure. Regulation and macro: The CLARITY Act has been confirmed to be delayed until September, with limited impact. The market is focused on the US July CPI report this week, which will determine expectations for the Federal Reserve's subsequent rate hikes or wait-and-see stance. 😇 Fund flows: ETF inflows continue: On August 10, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of approximately 1,731 BTC. Cumulative net inflows totaled approximately $850 million in the previous week, marking the best weekly performance since mid-April, led by BlackRock IBIT. Institutional buying continues to provide bottom support. Liquidations and leverage: During the price pullback, long liquidations over 24 hours exceeded $47 million, while short liquidations were approximately $12 million, indicating that long leverage was flushed out. Derivatives funding rates were overall neutral to slightly positive, and open interest did not increase significantly, with the market remaining cautious. 😇 Technical analysis: Upward momentum is weakening, and the market will see a shift in the next few days. Intraday, watch whether 64,500 can hold; if it fails to hold, pay attention to the risks. Personally, I think the price still needs to move lower from this level. The weekly bull-bear dividing line is at 65,500.

$ETH 【V5.9.6 Plain English + Forecast 09:46】 【Now】 1) Direction: Slightly bearish, but the advantage is still very small. LONG 47 / SHORT 51. 2) Cycle: The FOMC cycle is helping the bulls (a rebound window after the FOMC low, with an actual bias of +2.7). 3) Funds: Trading volume has dropped significantly (4h is only 0.53x the normal level), and current price moves lack funding confirmation. 4) Position: There is no particularly attractive side at the current position (LONG 54 / SHORT 46). 5) Can you trade: Execution conditions are poor (LONG 29 / SHORT 34), so opening a new position now is not worthwhile. 【Next 6–12 hours】 Over the next 6–12 hours, I lean more toward “sideways first/a small pullback, then an attempt to rebound,” because the cycle is starting to favor the bulls, but real-time trend and volume have not fully taken over yet. Similar historical data is for background only: LONG-based 12h same-direction rate 60% (n=36), SHORT-based 12h same-direction rate 40% (n=36); this is not a win-rate guarantee. 【Recent Key Event】 The recent event is CPI, which will be released in about 35 hours. It is still too early to mechanically short because of CPI; after entering the 18–30-hour window, if the market is still range-bound over 48h and 4h momentum weakens, expectations for a pre-release pullback will increase. After the release, focus on whether the decline is recovered with increased volume. 【Next 1–3 Days】 The next 1–3 days are slightly more likely to see a rebound, but this is not a strong-rebound-from-the-lows setup; without volume support, the market may still mainly consolidate through sideways trading. 【What Would Change the Assessment】 Bullish upgrade: LONG leads by at least 6 points; ETH 4h shifts from weak to strong (preferably ≥+0.3%); 4h volume first recovers to ≥1.0x, with ≥1.15x being more credible. Actual trading still requires a LONG execution score ≥75 and an execution lead ≥10. Bearish upgrade: SHORT leads by at least 6 points; the ETH 4h decline expands (preferably ≤-0.3%) and is accompanied by 4h volume ≥1.15x; if the recent low is also broken, bearish confirmation will strengthen. Actual trading still requires a SHORT execution score ≥75 and an execution lead ≥10. Invalidation signal for the current rebound scenario: a high-volume break below the recent low, or SHORT continuing to lead by ≥6 points; after this occurs, do not stubbornly hold on just because “it should rebound after the FOMC.” In one sentence: The current bearish bias is only a directional tendency; execution conditions are not ready yet, so wait for confirmation and do not jump the gun. Note: This is a conditional forecast based on the current price, similar historical samples, the FOMC cycle, macro events, and trading volume—not a guarantee of a certain price move or return.

$ETH ‌Guys, ETH is currently consolidating and pulling back around 1875! It is down slightly by less than 2% over the past 24 hours, but this move is clearly a “profit-taking pullback after failing to break the previous high,” a typical top-out and retreat pattern! Looking at the chart, the 1-hour level just saw a sharp drop break below the Bollinger midline, while the MACD death cross is diverging downward, indicating that the short-term trend has turned bearish. Short-term support below is at the Bollinger lower band at 1849 and the previous low at 1854. Overhead resistance is at 1934 (the Bollinger upper band) and the previous high at 1939. Recent US inflation data has remained mild, further strengthening expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut and giving global risk assets a chance to catch their breath. In addition, Ethereum spot ETFs have recently recorded significant net inflows, with institutional buying continuously absorbing selling pressure. This provides ETH with extremely strong bottom support, and the medium-term rebound thesis remains solid. The above analysis is for reference only. Although ETH is a leading asset, it remains affected by overall market sentiment. Investment involves risks, so decisions should be made cautiously.