If you’ve been watching the “big pancake” today, and the friends who saw the post and placed orders last night: the big pancake is back at 400 points again, and the “small pancake” is also near the cost line. Because it’s a light ship with high X, we have many opportunities to top up; for example, one of my students—I had them top up once at 1862. This Friday, I’m hoping for a perfect finish as well. Wishing you all the best together. $BTC ‌$ETH

In the Bitcoin trading circles, the four-year halving cycle is almost enshrined as an unshakable rule of law. Looking back at the three market runs in 2012, 2016, and 2020, the market has always followed the supply contraction logic brought by halving: a bull run over three years to build momentum, and a bear market over one year to clear out. Based on historical patterns, the theoretical cycle bottom in this round has only three months left. But the real bottom has never been a specific day fixed on the calendar—it’s a prolonged stretch of suffering, filled with liquidity drying up, chain liquidations, and the cleansing of positions. Staring at time to predict the bottom makes it easy to end up with distorted execution, leading to major losses. Mature traders never obsess over guessing the bottom time; they only weigh the risk-reward ratio and seize opportunities where risk and reward become imbalanced. Across history, there have been only three to four complete halving cycles, with a very small sample size. Today, many people openly say the four-year cycle has already stopped working. Spot ETFs have launched, large amounts of institutional capital have poured in, and on top of that, the Federal Reserve rate cycle is deeply intertwined with the market’s pricing—completely rewriting the old market logic driven mainly by retail participants and powered only by the halving. Here are two trading maxims for everyone: Do good deeds along the way: strictly control losses within what you can bear, build positions in batches, keep funding routes open for retreat, and never use high leverage that would affect your daily life. Don’t ask about the future: accept the market’s inherent uncertainty and don’t speculate about bottom levels based on your own expectations. The four-year cycle may still work, or it may be fundamentally rebuilt in this round. But as long as your risk-control system is good enough, we don’t need to rely on predicting the market to survive long term $BTC $ETH #Gate事件合约首发狂欢

7.24 Erbing morning analysis: Erbing is gradually taking light positions around 1890/1910 in batches, and the target is pointing toward 1840/1800. If you want to go for Duo, you can take light positions in batches around 1840, set the stop loss at 1780, and the target is pointing toward 1890/1910. In the earlier market, the price surged to the high point 1887.98, then gradually faced pressure and pulled back. In the middle, it showed a wave of sharp drop that went down to the 1858.00 low, and then started a weak rebound to repair. In the end, both sides for Duo and Kong repeatedly pull and wrestle around key price levels. Although the plate managed to bounce with the help of an iteration, the overall downward structure of “rally then pull back” was not reversed. The medium-term downtrend still has the upper hand. The current range-bound consolidation is effectively rebound consolidation after a decline, mainly digesting the dip-buying floating positions from the previous phase, laying the timing groundwork for the next leg down. Since the top formed at 1887.98, the Bollinger Bands have kept operating within a downward channel overall. This rebound has never managed to get close to the prior high again. The chart has not yet formed strong signals of trend reversal. As the rebound reaches the area of the Bollinger middle band, selling pressure will become concentrated and visible. The chips in the upper pressure zone have strong “escape” selling force. $ETH #美国对60个经济体加征关税