July 29 BTC/ETH Market Daily Report | With the Fed rate decision meeting approaching, will it turn hawkish or dovish in the end? Break above 67,000? Or fall below 62,000 first? This article tells you the answer!
《Jiangfeng Trading Diary》Episode 16
Episode 15 recap: Early yesterday morning, BTC dropped from around 65,000 at the highs, and retreated all the way to the 62,660 area, where it found short-term support. It then started to rebound gradually. Currently, it has been repeatedly testing around 64,000 and met clear resistance—so today’s view remains unchanged: continue to focus on going short at higher levels!
In the past 24 hours across the entire network, liquidations totaled $399 million. I don’t think there are any Jiangfeng fans in there, because Jiangfeng has been thinking in a high-short direction all the way. From Episode 10, the top high-air short near 66,900, to Episode 14’s high-air short near 65,700, it has basically always been at the very top positions—so there is no such thing as a loss leading to liquidation!
For yesterday’s Episode 15, the short call at 64,300 was given, but the highest rebound only reached around 64,175, so it didn’t provide an entry opportunity. For Ethereum, shorts at 1920~1940 were given; the highest rebound went to around 1928. Currently there is a small profit—continue to hold!
Now let’s talk about today’s plan: short at higher levels as the main approach. The interest-rate meeting is coming, so stay cautious! Risk index 🌟🌟🌟🌟☆
📌Ethereum: (1935~1940) near the head position short, add shorts at 1970~1990, final line of defense around 2040~2075
🏁Target 1850~1800
🏁Target 1750~1690
⚠️: The short near 1920 from yesterday should be kept holding!
📌Bitcoin: short near 64,500; add shorts near 65,300~65,800; final line of defense around 67,000~68,00
🏁Target 62,500~61,300
🏁Target 60,500~59,000
⚠️: This strategy will be heavily affected due to meeting factors. The entry range is wide (to prevent getting swept by needle wicks), so be sure to participate with a light position!
💥Key to watch: the factors driving market direction on both sides recently
At 2:30 a.m. on the 30th, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy press conference will be released. You need to focus on it—any dovish/hawkish signals will affect subsequent price action. This is also the biggest market split since September 2024—according to the latest CME FedWatch data: the probability of keeping rates unchanged is about 67.9%, the probability of an unexpected 25-basis-point hike is still 32.1%, the probability of a 25-basis-point hike in September is 56.1%, and the probability of a 50-basis-point hike is 21.5%! Handle any signals released in the meeting with caution!
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