Many retail traders are misled by SOL’s short-term small bullish candles into bottom-fishing, ignoring the core bearish signal that the price has been operating below all moving averages for the long term. This modest upward move in the current round is only a technical rebound after oversold conditions, with rebound momentum continuing to fade; there has been no breakout above key resistance with a high-volume K-line. On the capital side, spot ETF inflows are continuing to slow down, derivatives positioning shows net short exposure, and on top of that, funds in the public chain sector are being diverted to the “second pancake,” while fundamentals continue to weaken. Once the price pulls back to the moving-average pressure zone, a wave of concentrated selling is likely. Selling short with the trend is the move that best fits the market direction; going long against the trend carries an extremely high risk of losses. Trading advice: aggressively, short directly at the current price; more conservatively, short in the 76-76.4 area, targeting 74.8-74.2. If it breaks below 73.5. #Web3安全指南 $SOL $BTC $ETH

By combining the order book liquidity and the technical structure in two dimensions, we sort out the complete long-term bearish thesis for Erbing. From the order book data, it’s clear that in every small rebound, large sell orders remain persistently stacked in the moving-average pressure zone above. The main players use oscillation and slow repairs to distribute positions gradually, creating a false “bullish recovery” signal to lure retail traders into the market and have them buy into the trap. The Erbing moving average system is entirely aligned bearishly: short-, mid-, and long-term moving averages are layered and pressing down in sequence, forming a continuous pressure band. Each time the price probes upward, it encounters heavy selling pressure. The current oscillation upward repair is only a continuation pattern within the downtrend, not a bottom reversal. At the macro level, tightening liquidity continues to suppress crypto asset valuations. Fundamental headwinds continue to intensify and play out, such as Ethereum staking unlocks and ongoing large-holder selling. Overall market risk appetite keeps trending lower, making it hard to reverse the big trend in the short term. After the price approaches the moving-average pressure zone, short-term dip-buy long positions collectively trigger stop-losses, causing a stampede that accelerates the selloff. The market then quickly drops—this is a standard pullback-and-confirmation of a resistance trend. For swing trading, it’s recommended to look for rebounds to sell in the high area. Trying to bottom-fish and go long carries extremely high risk and is very likely to end up trapped deeply. Trading suggestion: short directly at the current price if you’re aggressive; for a more cautious approach, short around 1920-1950, then watch for downside toward 1880-1850. If it breaks below 1830, 1800, 1760 #Web3安全指南 $ETH $BTC $SOL

Many people have been wondering recently why the large coin’s small bounce can’t be used to take on a bigger long. Today, I’ll fully break down the moving average structure to help everyone clearly understand the logic. The large coin previously effectively broke below all cycle moving averages. The moving average system has completed a trend reversal—from support to a pressure band that suppresses the market throughout. There is no foundation for sustained strength. The current price is oscillating upward and repairing, but this is only a short-term sentiment repair, with no incremental capital entering to push it higher. Price is slowly forcing its way toward the overhead moving average pressure zone, but the rebound strength is extremely weak. In my view, the overall market environment is still a bearish big-picture setup. The medium-term downtrend channel has not been broken. Each time the price pulls back to the moving average pressure level, it will bring a large volume of sell orders and concentrated dumping. The market then falls back in line with the trend—this is a typical pullback confirming a resistance pattern. For swing trading, you must clearly distinguish between short-term bounces and trend reversals. At this stage, all bounces that approach moving average resistance are excellent opportunities to set up for going short. Only by trading in line with the trend can you avoid the risk of getting deeply trapped. Trading recommendations: for aggressive traders, short directly at the current price; for conservative traders, short around 65000-65600. Looking down to 64000-63400. If it breaks below 62800, 62000. #Web3安全指南 $BTC $ETH $SOL