Bollinger Bands Tightening and Building Momentum, Bitcoin’s Bullish Structure Intact — In-Depth One-Hour Analysis and Strategy As of August 17, 2026, Bitcoin is trading near the $65,000 level, with its market capitalization holding at around $1.3 trillion and 24-hour trading volume expanding to approximately $14.08 billion, up 15.45% from the previous week, indicating that market activity is recovering. From a one-hour technical perspective, Bitcoin completed a bottoming and stabilization process after retracing downward to $62,830, then began a corrective rebound. The price is holding firmly above the middle Bollinger Band, with the former resistance level having completed its role reversal and the middle band turning into short-term bullish support. The Bollinger Bands are currently converging overall, indicating that the market remains in a momentum-building consolidation phase and has not yet erupted into a strong one-sided rally. Taking into account ETF fund flows, Federal Reserve monetary policy, the CLARITY Act, and other macro variables, the short-term bullish structure remains intact, buying support below is solid, and the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged. I. Market Overview: Stabilization Signals After a Low-Volume Pullback Entering mid-August 2026, Bitcoin’s market performance has displayed the typical characteristics of a “sharp drop and slow rise.” Since reaching its all-time high of $126,209 in October 2025, Bitcoin has undergone a deep correction lasting nearly ten months, with a maximum drawdown approaching 50%, and its current price has fallen back to around $64,999. From a weekly perspective, the price remains below the descending trendline extending from the high, while the 20-week moving average is at $69,445 and the 200-week moving average is at $68,468. Multiple layers of moving-average resistance are overhead, meaning that a complete reversal of the medium- to long-term trend will not happen overnight. However, switching to the one-hour timeframe reveals a market picture that is clearly more positive. After rapidly falling to around $62,830 in early August, the price quickly attracted buying support and formed a stabilization candlestick with a long lower shadow. This level coincided with the upper boundary of the dense trading zone between $62,500 and $64,000 that had been tested repeatedly, forming a short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. More importantly, trading volume did not expand in a panic-like manner during this bottoming process, indicating that bearish momentum had weakened and selling pressure had been effectively absorbed near the key support level. II. Bollinger Band Analysis: Middle-Band Support Conversion and Momentum-Building Convergence As a classic tool for assessing market strength, the Bollinger Bands are providing very clear guidance on the current one-hour chart. After bottoming at $62,830, Bitcoin’s price quickly rebounded and firmly moved above the middle Bollinger Band. Previously, the middle band had consistently acted as dynamic resistance, with each rebound toward it being met by selling pressure and a pullback. This time, however, the middle band completed a key role reversal from “resistance” to “support,” which is the core signal that the short-term trend has shifted from weak to strong. Intraday performance shows that multiple minor pullbacks have halted near the middle band without producing an effective breakdown, fully demonstrating that buying support below is very solid. Bullish capital has shown a clear willingness to defend this level and is unwilling to let the price easily fall back into the weak zone. At the same time, the upper and lower Bollinger Bands are gradually narrowing, while the bandwidth indicator is operating at low levels, forming a typical convergence and momentum-building pattern. Historical experience shows that after sufficient contraction, Bollinger Bands are often followed by a directional breakout. The current price is gradually approaching the upper Bollinger Band. Although no effective breakout has yet formed, the bulls are continuously testing overhead resistance. This “grinding” process is essentially absorbing trapped positions and building breakout momentum. III. Key Price Levels: The Battle Map of Support and Resistance From a broader technical-structure perspective, Bitcoin’s current trading range has already been repeatedly confirmed by the market. The $62,500 level below is the immediate floor. This level has been tested repeatedly since August, attracting substantial buying each time. If it fails, the next key line of defense will move down to the psychological $60,000 level, which is widely recognized as a key support. A break below it could trigger a deeper correction, targeting the area around the June low of $57,500. On the upside, $65,000 to $65,500 forms the most direct resistance zone, and it is also the area where multiple recent attempts have failed. Higher up, $66,500 is a more important test point, where Bitcoin previously encountered strong selling pressure. The signal that would truly confirm a trend reversal would be a high-volume breakout and sustained hold above $70,000, along with recovery of the 100-day exponential moving average (approximately $67,600) and the 200-day exponential moving average (approximately $73,300). On the weekly timeframe, the 200-week moving average at $68,468 and the 20-week moving average at $69,445 form a dual resistance barrier. Only a breakout above this area can open the way toward higher targets. IV. Macro Variables: ETF Fund Inflows and Policy Expectations Beyond technical factors, fund flows and macro policy are shaping the market’s underlying logic. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $464 million in net inflows during the first 10 trading days of August. The first week of August saw net inflows on five consecutive trading days, totaling more than $750 million and marking the strongest single-week performance since mid-April 2026. More notably, on-chain tracking data from Arkham Intelligence shows that no Bitcoin ETF recorded net selling throughout August. BlackRock’s IBIT fund continued to lead inflows, while Franklin Templeton re-entered the market to purchase Bitcoin after remaining inactive for more than 30 days. This continued institutional accumulation stands in sharp contrast to the cumulative $5.4 billion in net outflows during the first half of 2026, suggesting that smart money is repositioning at lower levels. At the macro-policy level, the Federal Reserve is maintaining its interest-rate range at 3.5% to 3.75%. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both expect rates to remain unchanged throughout 2026, with a rate-cut cycle potentially beginning only in 2027. Although the high-rate environment continues to weigh on risk assets overall, the market has already priced in this expectation to a considerable extent. The policy variable truly worth watching is the CLARITY Act (HR 3633), which passed the House of Representatives in July 2025 with 294 votes in favor and 134 against, while the Senate vote was postponed until the fall. If ultimately enacted, the bill would provide digital assets with a clear regulatory classification framework, clarify the jurisdictional boundaries between the CFTC and SEC, and deliver substantial long-term benefits to the industry. In addition, Mastercard’s $1.8 billion acquisition of stablecoin infrastructure provider BVNK marks the accelerating embrace of the crypto payments ecosystem by traditional financial giants, providing the market with additional confidence and support. V. Trading Strategy: Maintain the Bullish Stance and Wait Patiently Taking together the one-hour Bollinger Band technical signals and the macro-level fund-flow and policy variables, the market’s core logic has not fundamentally changed. The bullish structure has been fully confirmed in the $62,500 to $64,000 region, and the direction selected after the Bollinger Band convergence will most likely be upward. Specific trading recommendation: Build long positions near $62,600, targeting $64,000, with the defense level set below $62,000. The core basis for this strategy is that $62,600 lies at the confluence of middle-Bollinger-Band support and the previous dense trading zone, offering a relatively reasonable risk-reward ratio. If the price breaks through the $65,500 resistance on expanding volume, consider adding to positions, targeting $66,500 and the $70,000 level. Conversely, if the one-hour closing price falls below $62,000, it would indicate that the short-term bullish structure has been damaged, and positions should be exited promptly while awaiting further developments. It should be emphasized that the market is still in a momentum-building consolidation phase, and repeated intraday fluctuations are normal. Traders should not allow short-term volatility to disrupt their judgment. Maintain patience, strictly follow discipline, and wait for the upward momentum released after the Bollinger Band convergence is complete. In a range-bound market with no clear direction, controlling position size and setting stop-losses are always the first principles of survival. Risk warning: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile. This article is for sharing technical analysis and market views only and does not constitute any investment advice. Readers should make independent decisions based on their own risk tolerance and invest rationally. #Gate事件积分系统上线 $BTC ‌

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