$BTC Yes. As of today, August 16—and tomorrow, August 17—the picture for BTC remains fragile, but I see no signs of an accelerating collapse.
Bitcoin is currently around $63,200. Today’s range remains very narrow so far: approximately $62,916–63,310.
Today, before nightfall
My base case is sideways movement with a slight downside bias:
50% — $62,800–63,600;
30% — rebound to $63,700–64,100;
20% — break below $62,800 and move toward $62,000–62,500.
The main problem for buyers is that even soft U.S. data failed to push BTC back above $64,000; in addition, on August 14, U.S. BTC ETFs recorded around $56 million in net outflows, marking the third consecutive day of outflows.
Tomorrow, August 17
Tomorrow’s situation is more interesting: U.S. markets will open and ETFs will start trading again. At 14:30 Serbia time, the Empire State Manufacturing Index will be released, and at 16:00, the NAHB Housing Market Index. These are not events on the scale of CPI, but they could add volatility.
My approximate range for tomorrow: $62,000–64,500.
I would estimate:
40% — recovery: $63,500 → $64,000–64,500;
35% — sideways movement: $62,700–63,700;
25% — continued decline: $62,000–62,500, with a possible dip below.
The most important thing right now
$62,800–63,000 is key support. If it is bought up again and BTC returns above $63,500, the probability of a rebound tomorrow will increase noticeably.
$64,000–64,300 is the first serious signal that the situation is indeed changing in favor of buyers.
If BTC establishes itself below $62,800, I will then look more seriously at $62,000, followed by approximately $60,500–61,000.
In summary: right now, it is approximately 55/45 in favor of weakness/sideways movement over growth. But the price is already near support, so there is rebound potential for Monday. For a genuine bullish signal, I still want to see a return to at least above $64,000.