On August 20, 2026, after Bitcoin futures underwent an epic short squeeze, the price violently surged from around $64,000 to approximately $69,500, with the 24-hour gain briefly exceeding 8%. The market shifted from “deeply depressed sentiment” to “euphoric sentiment,” but short-term risks and divergence emerged as well. 📊 Key Levels in the Long-Short Battle · Current price: A pullback from the highs occurred after reaching approximately $69,800 - $70,000. · Strong resistance above: $72,000 - $75,000 is the next major technical resistance zone. · Key support below: The first support zone is $68,200 - 66,800 - $67,200; a loss of this level would bring the previous consolidation range back into focus. 📈 Futures Market Signals (Overheating and Divergence) · Epic short liquidations: More than $1.3-$1.4 billion in positions were liquidated across the entire network over 24 hours, with short positions accounting for over 90% and being systematically liquidated in the 65k-68.5k range, forming a classic “short squeeze.” · Severe technical overbought conditions: The 1-hour and 4-hour RSI have both surged above 85 into extremely overbought territory. Short-term sentiment is extremely euphoric, and after a sharp rise, the market usually needs a pullback to absorb profit-taking. · Structural contradiction remains: In contrast to the improvement in the perpetual futures market, the Coinbase Premium Index remains negative, indicating that demand in the U.S. spot market has yet to meaningfully return. This rally has been driven primarily by leverage rather than supported by spot buying. ⚠️ Macro Catalysts and On-Chain Warnings · Positive catalysts: The U.S. Treasury announced a substantial increase in the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks (at least doubling it), Trump met with cryptocurrency industry executives, and the SEC is considering easing token registration exemptions. Multiple positive factors combined to ignite the short squeeze. · Glassnode on-chain warning: On-chain data remains in the “capitulation phase.” The firm pointed out that until the realized profit/loss ratio breaks back above 2, any rebound should be viewed more as a local rebound than a fundamental shift in the market trend. 💎 Summary BTC is currently in the “battle at elevated price levels following a short-squeeze surge” phase. $70,000 is the focal point of the short-term battle between bulls and bears. The risk of chasing the rally is extremely high. A wiser approach would be to patiently wait for a pullback to around $68.5k, followed by declining volume and stabilization, before considering going long on the dip, or to wait until a solid candle closes above $70,000 on strong volume before following in. In the face of extreme sentiment and leverage, risk control comes first. #BTC升破70000美元日内涨幅8.3% $BTC ‌,

#币圈人回归原生家庭 Qixi Festival has just ended, and Bitcoin suddenly stormed back to $70k: some are showing off their romance, while others have started showing off their gains Yesterday was Qixi Festival, and social media was lively. Some people showed off roses, some showed off red envelopes, some showed off dinner, while others quietly spent the day on their own. Qixi in the crypto world is a little different. While many people were still eating dinner or watching movies, BTC suddenly started climbing, surging from around $64k toward $70k. While others received roses for Qixi, some crypto people received a big bullish candle. X was just as lively. Some people showed how much they had earned on their long positions and finally escaped losses, while others started recalculating how much the BTC they held was worth. Of course, some people received not a Qixi gift last night, but a forced-liquidation notice from an exchange. On the same night, some people laughed and others cried. That's the crypto world. First, why did BTC suddenly surge back to $70k? This rise did not happen for no reason. The U.S. Treasury expanded the scale of its long-term Treasury buybacks, changing market expectations for liquidity. U.S. Treasury yields fell, pressure on risk assets eased somewhat, and Bitcoin also reacted significantly. For BTC, the macro environment has always been important. In particular, factors such as the dollar, interest rates, and Treasury yields often directly affect whether capital is willing to move into risk assets. Another very direct reason is that the shorts were blown out. During this rally, the crypto market saw billion-dollar-scale short liquidations. A large number of people shorting BTC were forced to close their positions, and closing a short position itself means buying BTC back. When the price began to rise, the first batch of shorts was forced to buy back BTC. As the price continued upward, more shorts could not hold on, creating a self-reinforcing process. So in last night's move, there were both funds buying voluntarily and a group of people being forced by the market to buy. ETF funds are also beginning to show some movement Another change that cannot be ignored is the improvement in fund flows for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. ETFs had previously experienced a clear period of outflows, but after entering August, funds began flowing back in. Relevant data showed that weekly net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs had reached several hundred million dollars, marking one of their better performances in several months. This is no longer quite the same as the crypto world of several years ago. Today, BTC buying is not just old crypto players trading among themselves. ETFs, institutional funds, and the asset allocations of publicly listed companies have all become part of the market. So when Bitcoin sees a rally of this magnitude, it is not enough to look only at who is buying on exchanges such as bn and OK; we also need to see whether traditional capital is coming in as well. If ETFs continue to see net inflows and spot-market trading volume gradually expands, the foundation of this rally will be much more solid than a move driven solely by short covering. $70k has arrived, but it is still too early to rush to call it a bull market Many people may not like hearing this, but it still needs to be said. BTC returning to $70k is certainly worth watching, but $70k is merely a price threshold, not a pass declaring that a “bull market has begun.” What matters next is whether BTC can hold this level. If it quickly falls back to the low-$60ks after reaching $70k, that would indicate that short-term funds and short covering accounted for a large part of this rise. If it can gradually stabilize above $70k while ETFs continue to receive inflows, spot trading volume catches up, and more new buying emerges in the market, the situation will be completely different. First, let us see whether $70k can gradually change from a resistance level into a price at which people are willing to buy. Where exactly is BTC now? In one simple sentence: the market has just opened a window in a room that has been stuffy for a long time, but it is not yet clear whether the door is about to open to welcome guests. The sideways trading in the low-$60ks had already tested many people's patience. This sudden return to $70k has at least drawn the market's attention back. If funds continue to follow and BTC can hold around $70k, market sentiment may gradually change; if it falls again after surging, everyone will still have to keep waiting. Yesterday was Qixi Festival. Some people received roses, some received red envelopes, and crypto people received screenshots of their profits. As for whether this big bullish candle will ultimately become the beginning of the next market cycle, no one can provide an answer right now. But at least one thing is interesting: just a few days ago, everyone was discussing whether BTC would continue to fall, while today they have already begun discussing when it will surge back above $80k. The market is simply this realistic. When prices fall, everyone thinks they are highly rational; once prices rise, everyone suddenly thinks they are value investors. So Qixi Festival is over, and the flowers are gradually withering. If BTC can continue moving upward, that will be the story to come next.$BTC ‌

The Fed minutes strike a hawkish tone. Bitcoin breaks above $69k. These two things happened on the same day. Think about that. In the early hours of August 20 Beijing time, the Fed released the minutes of its July FOMC meeting. Nine votes supported and three opposed keeping rates unchanged, while three officials advocated a 25-basis-point hike. Most officials said: If inflation does not fall, a rate hike will be necessary. A purely hawkish signal. So how did the market move? The dollar index fell below the 99 mark for the first time since June, closing down 0.85%. Spot gold surged $188, breaking above $4,500 and closing up 4.35%. Spot silver surged 5.8%. Bitcoin returned to $69k after nearly three months, at one point approaching the $70k mark. Liquidations across the crypto market totaled $1.44 billion over 24 hours, with more than $1 billion in short positions liquidated in just one hour. “Hawkish” minutes, “dovish” market. Who was wrong? Neither. You misunderstood. The minutes look hawkish, but were not actually that hawkish. Only “several” officials supported an immediate rate hike in July, still “a considerable distance” from forming a majority. Right after the meeting ended in late July, the market priced in a more than 70% probability of a September rate hike. What about now? CME data shows a 67.3% probability that rates will remain unchanged in September. The market has already priced out the rate-hike expectations itself. Minutes are inherently backward-looking. They record discussions from July 28–29. What happened over the past three weeks? July retail sales posted their biggest decline in more than a year, while employment data came in unexpectedly weak. The data has already turned the “hawk” into a “paper tiger.” But what really knocked the dollar flat was something else. The U.S. Treasury announced on the same day that it would double the size of long-term Treasury buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation. Long-term yields fell and the dollar weakened. As the dollar fell, gold, silver, and Bitcoin all surged. The Treasury’s actions were more effective than the Fed’s words. BTC’s return to $69k cannot be summed up simply as “immunity to the Fed.” Three factors are resonating: First, Trump. On August 19, Trump met with crypto industry executives from Coinbase, Ripple, and others at the White House, directly saying that the crypto industry’s “headwinds are over.” The SEC also plans to ease registration exemptions for some tokens. Expectations of crypto-friendly regulation are more tangible than any macroeconomic data. Second, Treasury buybacks weighing on the dollar. As the dollar weakens, dollar-denominated assets naturally rise. Half of Bitcoin’s rebound this time came from buying, and half from shorts being forced to close. The passive buying generated by short covering pushed prices even higher. Third, BlackRock’s “dual personality.” BlackRock’s latest report points out that Bitcoin falls alongside risk assets when the market deleverages, but serves as a safe-haven asset during geopolitical turmoil. The Fed minutes, meanwhile, explicitly listed geopolitical conflict and the pace of AI industry development as “key variables.” These two factors are precisely the two pillars of the crypto narrative—digital gold + AI infrastructure. Stop focusing on the FOMC for short-term trades. What the minutes tell us is that the Fed itself does not know what comes next. Instead of guessing whether rates will be raised in September, it would be better to focus on one thing— On August 28, the Jackson Hole symposium will feature Warsh’s first public speech since taking office as Fed chair. The market generally expects him to maintain a neutral tone, but 31% of respondents believe he could lean hawkish. Any deviation in wording could trigger a repricing of assets. That will be the real turning point. The market is no longer “listening to the Fed.” The market is not crazy; the pricing logic has changed. When the Treasury’s actions matter more than the Fed’s words, when regulatory policy matters more than rate decisions, and when geopolitics is more real than the dot plot— Are you still watching the FOMC calendar to trade?#BTC升破70000美元日内涨幅8.3% #Strategy涨近12% #Gate事件积分系统上线 $BTC $ETH $XAU $MU $MRNA