#XRP is recovering fast, but the real test is sitting directly above it.
The latest market data has XRP around $1.38, up roughly 6.3% in 24 hours, with a 24h range of $1.29–$1.40. Seven-day performance is still slightly negative at around -0.7%, which tells me something important: today's move is a recovery from weakness, not yet a confirmed weekly trend reversal. Market cap is around $86.9B, while 24h trading volume has reached approximately $3.6B.
The first level I am watching is $1.40. XRP has already reached that area today, but has not yet established it as support. A clean break above $1.40 followed by a successful retest would improve the short-term structure considerably. Above that, $1.43–$1.45 becomes the next resistance zone, while $1.50 is the bigger psychological checkpoint.
The downside is equally clear. $1.29–$1.30 is the first major support because it marks today's recovery base. If XRP loses that area, the current bounce starts looking much weaker and $1.25 becomes the next level to watch. For me, the key invalidation for the short-term bullish recovery is a sustained move back below $1.29.
Derivatives are becoming interesting again. CoinGlass currently shows around $2.98B in XRP open interest, with roughly $4.87B in 24-hour futures volume against about $1.05B spot volume. That is a substantial derivatives footprint, so leverage is clearly influencing the move. XRP open interest has also recovered toward pre-CLARITY levels after a major leverage reset earlier in the week.
There is a real catalyst behind today's strength. Evernorth raised $30M to expand its institutional XRP treasury strategy, while the XRPL ecosystem is also seeing increased activity around AI-payment infrastructure. CoinGecko reports daily XRP Ledger payment volume recently reaching roughly 1.16B XRP, more than double its 30-day average. These developments are confirmed activity, although they should not automatically be interpreted as guaranteed XRP price demand.
The regulatory picture is more complicated. The U.S. Senate's CLARITY Act failed to advance this week, initially putting pressure on XRP and the broader crypto market. Ripple itself acknowledged the setback, while XRP has subsequently recovered part of that decline.
BTC reclaiming $80K is helping the entire altcoin market recover, but XRP still needs to prove that buyers can maintain momentum independently. The weekly performance remains near flat-to-negative, so I am watching structure rather than chasing the percentage move.
Bullish scenario: reclaim $1.40, hold it as support, then break $1.43–$1.45. That would open the path toward $1.50. Failure to hold $1.40 after a breakout would weaken the setup.
Bearish scenario: rejection around $1.40 followed by a break below $1.29. That would put $1.25 back in focus. Reclaiming $1.40 would invalidate that bearish breakdown.
My current read: XRP is in a recovery attempt, not a confirmed breakout.
For me, the chart is simple: $1.40 is the door. $1.29 is the floor. What happens between those two levels should tell us whether XRP is preparing for another leg higher or simply bouncing after the recent liquidation.
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$XRP