Trader Killa’s “betrayal”: from watching the FOMC to ignoring the FOMC
Three months ago, Killa was still using FOMC data to determine BTC support levels.
One month ago, he was still warning: losing $61k would trigger a test of $54k.
Today, he said: “The macro narrative is just noise.”
A trader who had consistently used macro factors to trade suddenly threw macro into the trash.
The timeline.
On June 17, Killa said: Of the eight FOMC meetings since 2025 began, BTC fell seven times. The bullish structure line was $64k.
On August 1, BTC fell again after the FOMC. He said: Losing $61k–$61.5k would trigger a test of $54k–$56k.
That Killa was a standard macro believer.
Then he changed.
On August 12, the narrative weighting began shifting from macro to the Clarity Act—the catalyst changed from the interest-rate path to regulatory legislation.
On September 12, he said: The market keeps sweeping the lows repeatedly, with the goal of destroying bullish confidence. The final sweep will mark a local bottom.
On September 14, he completely changed his stance: “Most people focus on macroeconomics to predict asset movements, but most macro narratives are merely distractions.”
He added:
“BTC often starts moving before the reason becomes obvious. By the time the macro environment changes and the herd realizes it, Bitcoin has usually already completed its move. Correlations are often lagging.”
In plain English: By the time you see the news and act, the train has already left.
Why does he suddenly no longer care about the FOMC?
It’s not that he doesn’t care; the positioning structure before the FOMC is a hundred times more important than the FOMC itself.
At the very moment he posted that tweet—
BTC was oscillating repeatedly between $76k and $78k, testing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $76,380.
CME FedWatch showed an 86.5% probability of a rate hike in September.
Over the past week, 142k people were liquidated, with long liquidations accounting for as much as 70%.
The Ethereum ETF saw net outflows for four consecutive days, while repeated attempts to break the $80k level failed.
Killa’s “sweep the lows” on September 12 and “macro is noise” on September 14 are two sides of the same thing.
What he wants you to watch is not the FOMC’s 25 basis points, but the fact that market makers had already cleaned you out before the FOMC.
What is truly worth noting is the third migration in narrative weighting.
Stage one: Trade based on macro. In June, Killa used historical FOMC data to determine the direction.
Stage two: Trade based on regulation. In August, Killa treated the Clarity Act as the core catalyst.
Stage three: Trade based on positioning structure. In September, Killa focused only on the long-to-short ratio, liquidation data, and low-sweeping behavior.
Why?
Because on September 15, the Clarity Act faces a procedural vote requiring 60 votes in the Senate. Republicans hold only 53 seats, and prediction markets show a very low probability of passage this year.
Regulatory uncertainty is too high for it to serve as a short-term trading anchor.
And interest rates? An 86.5% probability of a rate hike—it has long been priced in.
What has not truly been priced in is the distribution of leverage.
Killa is not telling you that the FOMC is unimportant.
He is telling you that the price reaction after the FOMC is more important than the FOMC itself.
BTC has repeatedly been grinding against the $76,380 level. Historically, when a key support level is tested repeatedly, it often means the support is about to fail.
If it breaks, the next level to watch is $72,820, followed by $69,950–$71,170.
But Killa’s logic is the opposite—
Repeated sweeps of the lows are meant to clear out leverage and drive longs to despair. When you think, “It broke below the previous low again—we’re finished,” the final sweep may already be complete.
He is betting not on direction, but on structure.
When someone switches from “trading based on data” to “trading based on structure,” it means they believe short-term data fluctuations are no longer sufficient to explain price movements.
Killa predicted the 2025 bull-market top.
In mid-April, he precisely shorted at $74,688.
On June 5, he went long as the market fell across the board, deploying 90% of his position.
You may not believe his conclusions, but you cannot ignore his shift in logic.
For three consecutive months, he shifted the narrative weighting from macro to regulation, and then from regulation to positioning structure.
This shows that he believes the market has shifted from being “rate-driven” to being “liquidity-hunt-driven.”
At this stage, watching FOMC data is like driving while staring into the rearview mirror.
What truly determines your profit or loss is the brake pedal ahead—you don’t know when to press it, but market makers do.
Killa’s betrayal is a signal.
It is not telling you that the FOMC is unimportant; it is telling you that the price reaction after the FOMC is the market’s true language.#传Anthropic选择纳斯达克IPO #Gate24小时合约持仓量超114.79亿美元 #韩国股市开盘重挫3% $ETH $BTC $SOL