In the evening, @Duo@ responded as scheduled and fell back to realize 1200+35 gains. Time is like an echo in a valley—if you call out with enough conviction and the direction doesn’t stray, no matter how far away it is, it will eventually send the answer back into your ears. $BTC $ETH

I originally thought about turning off the software for a break, but a full screen of green kept calling me back. The price rebounded to around the key levels but couldn’t hold there; trading volume was on the light side, while sell orders kept pressing down layer by layer. I judged this wasn’t a strong recovery, but a renewed drop after being pressured at higher levels—so around 0.46953 I indicated a short. Now the current price is 0.03064, and the return has already shown +2291.79%. This time wasn’t in vain; the short’s timing finally came through. I first closed the majority for +2291.79% to lock in the profits, and I’m keeping the remaining +2291.79% for now. I’ve moved the protective level to around the cost basis; if it keeps falling, let it extend on its own. If it pulls back and rebounds, don’t let the gains turn into regret. Panic happens because there was no plan. Loss happens because you think too much. Before the session, you need a strategy; during the session, you need discipline; after the session, you need reflection. If you’re still on the sidelines, don’t take risks just to chase a single falling move. The faster the price drops, the more likely a rebound will appear—wait for good news. When the next wave of signals comes out, then act. $BTC $ETH

Why did ETH drop this time—what is the real reason? Just now, ETH fell from around 1,925 all the way down to 1,858. Many people’s first reaction was: Is it a war? Is the Federal Reserve going to hike rates again? Actually, trading can’t only look at one piece of news. I think this drop is more like several factors stacking on top of each other. First, the market has been trading rate-cut expectations lately, but with oil prices rising and geopolitical risks increasing, people are starting to worry about inflation again. In short: If inflation pressure comes back, the Fed’s rate-cut pace may slow down. When funds see this shift in expectations, risk-asset sentiment naturally becomes more cautious. Second, ETH itself had already rallied earlier. It pulled up from around 1,800 to around 1,950, and short-term longs have already made plenty of profit. When it reached the 1,950 area, that’s also a pressure zone by itself. After a failed breakout above that level, some funds chose to take profits, and then long positions in the derivatives market started getting liquidated, which further amplified the downside move. So what you’re seeing isn’t just “news selling pressure,” but: profit-taking after a rally + weaker market sentiment + contract liquidations. Third, look at the chart. After ETH dropped to around 1,858 this time, it didn’t keep plunging endlessly. Instead, there was a certain rebound. That suggests there’s still capital stepping in at this level. If it were a truly panic-driven shift to short, it usually wouldn’t be bought back so quickly. So my current view is: For the short term, we should first expect a consolidation and repair. 1900-1910 above is resistance. 1835-1855 below is the key support zone. In trading, don’t chase shorts just because it’s down, and don’t chase longs just because it bounced. In this kind of fast “needle” price action, what matters more is your position. When the market gives you an opportunity, act; when it doesn’t, wait. This drop is actually very typical: News is only the fuse—the thing that truly drives price is always capital and positioning. $ETH ‌#布伦特原油重返100美元