How will Aptos (APT) react to the 59 million dollar unlock?

Aptos (APT) fell slightly by 0.7% in the past 24 hours, but it still increased by nearly 5% over the week. This move comes just before the unlocking of tokens worth 59 million dollars expected to take place tomorrow, which could cause short term volatility.

Despite the recent recovery, APT continues to trade below the monthly highs, with key resistance and support levels currently being watched. Technical indicators are beginning to turn bullish, but the upcoming unlock event and broader market sentiment may shape the next major move.

59 million APT unlocked

Aptos will unlock 11.31 million tokens tomorrow, worth approximately 59 million dollars. This scheduled event occurs on the 12th of each month. The distribution plan includes 3.21 million tokens for the community, 3.96 million for core contributors, 1.33 million for the organization, and 2.81 million for investors.

Despite these frequent unlocks, 43.5% of the total APT supply remains locked. Future releases are still an important part of the overall supply structure of the token.

The price of APT and fluctuations during previous unlocks | Source: TradingViewAccording to history, these unlocks have had inconsistent impacts on the price of APT. After the unlock in April, the token rose by 3.6% within 24 hours, while the unlock in May coincided with a fall of 7.8%, indicating that there is no clear market response pattern. These mixed results suggest that price volatility is likely influenced more by broader market sentiment and trading dynamics rather than the unlocks themselves.

Although tomorrow's event may increase short term volatility, past data indicates that this is not a reliable predictive factor for price direction.

Motivation guiding support for the bulls before unlocking APT

Aptos is showing new strength signs on the DMI chart, with the ADX (Average Directional Index) rising sharply to 29.53 from a level of 17 just a day before.

ADX measures trend strength, with values above 25 often indicating a strong trend is occurring. An increasing ADX means that momentum is forming, even when the directional components change.

DMI Aptos | Source: TradingView +DI at 27.32, down from 33.85 yesterday. -DI has sharply fallen to 8.52 from 21.72. The large gap between them indicates that the bulls are still in control, even as the momentum slightly declines.

The Ichimoku Cloud also supports this view. The price being above the cloud is a bullish signal. The green Leading Span A is trending upwards, indicating that the trend may continue.

The Ichimoku Cloud of Aptos | Source: TradingViewThe blue Tenkan-sen line is still above the red Kijun-sen line, implying that short term momentum is still stronger than the medium term trend. Additionally, the green Chikou Span is above both the price and the cloud, confirming bullish sentiment.

With the cloud ahead turning green and expanding, the chart shows support strengthening below the current price action, adding further confidence to the bullish setup.

Aptos aims for a golden cross with important support in sight

The EMA structure of APT is setting up a potential golden cross, a bullish signal that occurs when short term EMAs move above long term EMAs. This crossover will confirm that the bullish momentum is strengthening and may pave the way for a move towards the next resistance levels.

If the upward trend continues, APT may attempt to break through the initial resistance zone and has the potential to extend higher, supported by improving technical sentiment.

APT Price Analysis | Source: TradingViewHowever, the risk of a fall still exists. The $5 level is an important support that has been tested and held recently, but if that level is not achieved under new selling pressure, it may trigger a deeper pullback. In that case, APT could fall to the $4.83 region, and if the decline is stronger, the price could drop to $4.44.

Whether the golden cross forms and holds will determine the short term direction of this token.

Minh Anh