"Keindahan 'lebih besar dari kenyataan' dalam sidang dengar pendapat Federal Reserve: Waugh tidak membahas suku bunga, tetapi memberikan jaminan untuk kripto

Original ｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Golem (@web3_golem)



On April 21st, at 10 PM Beijing time, Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Woor attended a confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee, where he faced questions from the committee. According to The Wall Street Journal, the content involved his commitments to monetary policy, Federal Reserve independence, and more.

At the hearing, when asked about Federal Reserve independence, Woor stated that he would be independent of Trump, and Trump had never asked him to commit to any specific interest rate decisions. He further defended that even if Trump had asked, he would never agree. Besides such statements, Woor avoided answering questions related to Trump. Regarding monetary policy, Woor criticized the Federal Reserve, stating that the Fed needs to undergo institutional reforms in policy-making, but his remarks on specific monetary policies were sparse, only mentioning that the Fed should gradually and cautiously shrink its balance sheet, without any clear indication of rate cuts.

This may also be intentional on Woor’s part. According to an opening statement obtained early by Bloomberg, although Woor’s prepared remarks were nearly 2000 words—far exceeding the approximately 850 to 900 words of Powell and former Chair Yellen during their initial hearings—his statements on the direction of monetary policy were almost nonexistent. Woor’s move aligns with his consistent stance that Federal Reserve officials should not comment on interest rates in advance.

However, for investors paying attention to this hearing, any expectations they hold may be disappointed. Because, in terms of content and outcome, the significance of this hearing is limited. Bloomberg columnist John Authers even pre-judged it as a “show more than substance,” a political performance. Ultimately, whether Woor’s nomination can smoothly pass the Senate confirmation depends on political negotiations outside the hearing, not on anything Woor said on stage.

Stubborn Trump and Innocent Woor

Previously, Odaily Planet Daily analyzed that the importance of this hearing lies in whether it will determine whether Powell stays or leaves after his term ends on May 15. If Woor’s nomination is not confirmed by the Senate this time, Powell is very likely to remain as interim Fed Chair after his term expires. (Read more: Powell’s reappointment probability soars to 98%, is Trump’s “firing order” just talk?)

However, the result is that after this hearing, the market still cannot determine whether Woor’s nomination as Fed Chair will be confirmed as scheduled, because the main obstacle to Woor’s nomination, Thom Tillis, has not even had effective dialogue with Woor.

Thom Tillis previously publicly stated that if Trump does not abandon his investigation into Powell, he will not support Woor’s nomination process being transferred to the full Senate for a vote. During the April 21 hearing, Tillis did not even ask Woor questions but instead showed a slide explaining the reasonableness of cost overruns in the Fed building renovation project. In the end, he expressed that his dissatisfaction was not directed at Woor, praising Woor as “highly qualified and impeccable,” but said he could only support Woor’s confirmation after ending the investigation.

Therefore, the content of the hearing no longer determines much. The key to whether Trump can finally dismiss Powell as scheduled depends on whether the Senate confirms Woor’s nomination in time, which again hinges on whether Trump is willing to give up the investigation into Powell.

On April 21, Trump also discussed the Fed and interest rate issues in a recent interview. He said he would be disappointed if the new Fed Chair (Woor) does not cut rates quickly, but he also wants to find out why the Fed building costs overran. The push for Woor to cut rates and investigate Powell are parallel, and Trump shows no sign of backing down.

As John Authers said, the real game is happening outside the hearing. Woor might even be “accidentally caught in the crossfire.” Either Thom Tillis makes concessions proactively, or Woor uses rate cuts as leverage to persuade Trump to abandon the investigation into Powell, allowing him to take over the Fed sooner. Woor’s relationship with Trump is unusual: Woor’s father-in-law, Ronald Steven Lauder, is the sole heir of the international cosmetics giant Estée Lauder, and he is also a Republican benefactor and Trump’s college classmate. Therefore, if Woor truly wants to take over the Fed early, he might be able to persuade Trump to give up the investigation.

Otherwise, if this deadlock continues until Powell’s term ends, Trump might choose to fire Powell to resolve the issue. As Odaily Planet Daily previously analyzed, the outcome could favor Powell. Notably, according to Odaily Seer’s monitoring, the probability of Powell leaving office after his term ends remains at 2%. However, a closer look at the contract’s settlement rules shows that if Powell resigns or is dismissed before the market’s end date, the market will immediately settle as “Yes,” regardless of when the resignation or dismissal takes effect.

Market Settlement Rules for Powell’s Post-Term Resignation

In other words, as soon as Trump announces the dismissal of Powell, the event will be settled. Although Powell can sue to make the dismissal effective during the lawsuit, lawsuits are lengthy processes. Therefore, the rule that “regardless of when the resignation/dismissal is announced, the market will immediately settle as Yes” becomes a loophole. (Odaily Note: The above is solely the author’s personal judgment and does not constitute any advice.)

Woor: Digital Assets Are Part of the U.S. Financial Industry

But for the crypto industry, this hearing still holds some significance. Previously, it was disclosed that Woor holds cryptocurrencies, Polymarket, and SpaceX stocks, which is seen as a friendly attitude toward the crypto sector.

During the hearing, Woor promised that if his nomination is approved, he will divest related assets before taking office when questioned about his over $100 million in disclosed assets and potential conflicts of interest. He further stated that digital assets are part of the U.S. financial industry, affirming the legitimacy and importance of the crypto sector in America. Although a brief mention, it is a very positive sign that someone about to hold one of the most powerful positions in the global economy openly supports crypto.