Une vente massive ne peut pas arrêter la flambée des prix du pétrole ? La société de recherche : les États-Unis pourraient déjà ne plus avoir de cartes à jouer

Finance China News, March 12 (Editor Liu Rui) As Iran conflict causes international oil prices to surge, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced on Wednesday an emergency release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves to stabilize prices.

However, renowned research firm Wolfe Research believes that this move should only mitigate the shock to the oil market but cannot fully resolve the issue. The immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains the top priority.

Market has already priced in the reserve release news

On Wednesday, Eastern Time, after media reports of the IEA’s oil reserve release plan, international oil prices initially fell but then reversed and continued to rise. Ultimately, the May Brent crude futures price increased by 5.2% intra-day to $92.25 per barrel, while WTI crude futures rose by 5.3% to $87.93 per barrel.

Wolfe Research analyst Tobin Marcus stated in a report: “The market’s reaction to this news is not very obvious because we believe it was already priced in on Monday.”

“On Sunday night, crude oil prices approached $120 per barrel, but sharply declined on Monday, largely because reports at the time indicated that the G7 was preparing for a large-scale strategic petroleum reserve release.”

Marcus added: “Before Trump hinted that the war was ‘completely over’ and suppressed oil prices, such speculation had already appeared, pulling the benchmark crude price back into the $90 to $100 range.”

Limited impact of the reserve release

Wolfe said that the speed and timing of the IEA member countries’ oil reserve release are crucial for assessing its impact on the oil market.

Before the Iran conflict erupted, nearly 20 million barrels of oil were transported daily through the Strait of Hormuz.

Marcus stated: “Assuming the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed, the 400 million barrels released is roughly equivalent to about 20 days of transportation through that strait.”

Therefore, Wolfe reminded that this measure by the IEA cannot “eliminate the need to reopen the strait.”

Trump may have no more cards to play

Wolfe also said that although the scale of this strategic petroleum reserve release is significant and could alleviate the impact of the war on the oil market, easing sanctions on Russian oil might also somewhat reduce market pressure. However, it cannot eliminate the long-term effects of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

“Moreover, other measures considered by the U.S. seem to have limited significance in our view, possibly because Trump cannot unilaterally implement these measures (such as temporarily waiving federal gasoline taxes), or because these measures are too trivial to matter (such as Jones Act exemptions), or because they are destructive and could backfire (such as export bans on crude oil and refined products).”

Therefore, after the IEA announced the release of oil reserves, Marcus believes that the U.S. may no longer have more effective cards to play in the face of soaring oil prices. Marcus bluntly stated:

“We believe there will be no more useful measures after this.”

(Finance China News, Liu Rui)