Hausse des prix des engrais, difficultés des semis de printemps — Analyse de l'impact de la situation au Moyen-Orient sur l'agriculture mondiale

Source : Xinhua News Agency

Xinhua Beijing, March 19 — News Analysis | Rising fertilizer prices and spring planting difficulties — Interpreting the impact of Middle East tensions on global agriculture

Xinhua reporter Chen Sida

The Strait of Hormuz carries one-fifth of global oil transportation and about one-third of global maritime fertilizer trade, serving as both an “oil route” and a “grain route.” Industry insiders believe that as the northern hemisphere enters the spring planting season, fertilizers and oil in the Gulf region are being delayed due to blockade caused by the US-Israel-Iran conflict, leading to risks of fertilizer shortages, increased shipping costs, and rising food prices.

Natural gas is a key raw material for nitrogen fertilizer production. The Middle East is both a major exporter of liquefied natural gas and a primary exporter of common nitrogen fertilizers such as urea. Currently, due to shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, major agricultural countries like Brazil and Sudan are unable to purchase Middle Eastern nitrogen fertilizers, while nitrogen fertilizer producers like India and Pakistan face difficulties sourcing raw materials.

Brazil is a major global producer and exporter of agricultural products, heavily reliant on imports of nitrogen fertilizers from the Middle East, Russia, and North Africa. Bernardo Silva, executive director of the Brazilian Fertilizer Raw Materials Industry Association, stated that the current Middle East conflict exposes the “fragility of Brazil’s fertilizer market.”

According to data from market research firm Kpler, several ships have recently been stranded in the Gulf region, carrying nearly 1 million tons of fertilizer in total. Ideally, even if these fertilizers are shipped immediately, it would take several weeks to reach ports in various countries, then be transferred via inland barges, trucks, or trains to farms. Most fertilizers need to be applied before crops begin to grow; delays could mean missing the spring planting window this year.

The seasonal and global nature of the fertilizer market amplifies the supply risks triggered by Middle East tensions. On one hand, unlike oil, fertilizer markets are typically driven by agricultural planting seasons, and most countries lack strategic reserves. On the other hand, the global fertilizer market is highly interconnected; a supply disruption in one region can affect prices worldwide.

The Frankfurt Allgemeine Zeitung recently reported that since the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, fertilizer prices have surged. Urea prices increased by about 30% in one week, reaching the highest level since 2022.

“Clearly, there are no ships (carrying fertilizers) departing from the Gulf region now, which will create a huge gap in the fertilizer market,” said Ginny Breach, data scientist at the University of Colorado Boulder.

The global fertilizer supply shock could ultimately lead to food shortages and price hikes. Joseph Glaweber, senior researcher at the U.S. International Food Policy Research Institute, stated that higher fertilizer prices will influence crop choices. “Farmers may opt for crops that require less fertilizer instead of nitrogen-intensive crops to avoid higher input costs. Farmers in some poor countries might reduce fertilizer use directly, which could lead to lower yields.”

U.S. media reports indicate that soybeans require less fertilizer than corn. Given the current rise in fertilizer prices and supply uncertainties, some American farmers are planning to increase soybean planting areas.

Due to ongoing disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, international crude oil futures prices again surpassed $100 per barrel at the start of trading on the 15th. Oil prices are closely linked to food prices, affecting multiple links in the food supply chain—from fertilizer use in the fields to transportation of agricultural products to supermarkets, energy costs influence many aspects of food supply.

Generally, some foods are not highly storable, especially fresh produce, meat, and dairy, which are prone to spoilage. This makes it difficult for companies to stockpile large quantities, and prices of these fresh foods are very sensitive to oil price fluctuations.

Qatar’s Al Jazeera reported that refrigeration and preservation equipment may be powered by natural gas or diesel, and polyethylene in food packaging is a petrochemical byproduct. Transportation between farms, cold storage facilities, packaging plants, and supermarkets still heavily depends on fuel, and energy prices directly increase costs along the food supply chain.

Deborah Winsberg, CEO and founder of Corset Research, said consumers will feel the impact of rising fuel prices through price tags on supermarket produce, meats, and dairy products, reflecting supply chain disruptions.

In some low-income countries, a significant portion of income is spent on food. These countries import large quantities of grains and fertilizers, and rising oil prices could quickly trigger food shortages. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development recently reported that disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could push up food prices, with particularly severe impacts on the most vulnerable economies.