Le prix du WTI dépasse à nouveau les 100 dollars ! Goldman Sachs : le PIB mondial pourrait être affecté de 0,3 point de pourcentage

Finance China News 16 March (Editor Liu Rui) As the Iran war enters its third week, the most severe oil transportation disruption in global history continues. Due to the Trump administration’s hints that the war with Iran may last several more weeks, international oil prices have risen again.

On Monday morning, the global benchmark Brent crude oil opened with a rise of 2.9%, reaching approximately $106.12 per barrel; U.S. WTI crude oil also rose by 2.6%, breaking the $100 mark to $101.53 per barrel.

Goldman Sachs analysts stated that the surge in oil prices caused by the Iran conflict could reduce global economic growth by about 0.3 percentage points and push inflation higher over the next year. However, the upward pressure on prices may be limited to the energy sector in the short term.

Iran war may impact global economic growth

Last week, Goldman Sachs’ global investment research department released a report lowering the U.S. 2026 economic growth forecast from 2.8% to 2.6%. Additionally, Goldman Sachs economists warned that if the Middle East conflict persists longer, the U.S. economic growth rate could face further decline.

Goldman Sachs estimates that rising energy prices will drag down global economic growth and increase the overall global inflation rate by about 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points, with a contribution to core inflation of approximately 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points.

This outlook reflects updated oil and natural gas forecasts following the supply disruptions caused by the conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), due to large-scale oil supply disruptions, U.S. gasoline prices have been rising, increasing by 24% since the start of the war, with an average price of $3.70 per gallon.

Goldman Sachs also stated that so far, the economic impact of this conflict has mainly concentrated on the energy market rather than the entire supply chain, meaning a widespread price increase similar to the COVID-19 pandemic may not recur.

Price increase pressures mainly confined to the energy sector

Due to disruptions in oil tanker transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, international energy prices have surged significantly. The spike in global oil and natural gas prices is expected to impact economic activities across various economies and increase consumer price pressures worldwide.

Despite the energy shock, Goldman Sachs pointed out that most major economies have relatively low dependence on Middle Eastern non-energy goods trade, as Gulf countries’ non-energy exports account for only 1% of global trade, limiting the broader supply chain impact.

Goldman Sachs also noted that the current situation differs from the global inflation surge of 2021-2022, when multiple supply chains were simultaneously disrupted. In the current conflict, inflation impacts are expected to remain mainly confined to the energy sector.

However, Goldman Sachs warned that if the conflict intensifies or the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a long time, supply chain risks could increase. Long-term disruptions to energy supplies could push oil prices higher, worsen the drag on global economic growth, and keep inflation elevated.

(Finance China News Liu Rui)