Les deux premiers mois de cette année, l'économie chinoise a connu un bon démarrage (annonce officielle)

(Original title: Production demand remains steady with positive factors gathering strength; China’s economy starts well in the first two months of this year (authoritative release))

“From January to February, production demand remained steady with an upward trend, major economic indicators rebounded significantly, and positive factors continued to gather, laying a solid foundation for the economy’s good development. This fully reflects China’s strong vitality and resilience.” On March 16, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office, Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, chief economist, and director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics on the National Economy, introduced the operation of the national economy in the first two months of this year.

Investment growth shifts from decline to increase

Affected by multiple factors, fixed asset investment declined year-on-year for the whole of last year. In January and February, fixed asset investment increased by 1.8% year-on-year, turning from decline to growth, playing a positive role in optimizing supply structure and expanding market demand. Fu Linghui explained the characteristics of investment operation from three aspects.

Key sector investment accelerated. From January to February, infrastructure investment increased by 11.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 10.8 percentage points compared to the whole of last year, driving overall investment growth by 3 percentage points. Meanwhile, the start of major projects accelerated, with planned total investment in projects of 100 million yuan or more increasing by 5% year-on-year. The demand for transformation of traditional industries and development of emerging industries expanded, boosting manufacturing investment. Manufacturing investment from January to February grew by 3.1% year-on-year, accelerating by 2.5 percentage points compared to last year.

Investment in new drivers showed good momentum. From January to February, high-tech industry investment increased by 5.1% year-on-year, with aerospace equipment manufacturing and information services growing by 20.2% and 16.5%, respectively. The development of high-end equipment manufacturing is favorable, with rapid growth in investment. During this period, investment in railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing increased by 31.1%. The green energy transition progressed steadily, with wind and photovoltaic energy installations continuously increasing, and related investments expanding.

The effect of policies to expand effective investment is evident. Since the beginning of the year, various regions and departments have continued to promote “two heavy” constructions, supported large-scale equipment updates, and increased project funding support. In January and February, state-controlled investment increased by 7.7% year-on-year, significantly faster than last year, with equipment and tools procurement investment up by 11.5% year-on-year. Policies to promote private investment have been actively implemented, enhancing private sector vitality. From January to February, private investment in infrastructure increased by 9%.

“While we see positive changes, we must also recognize that the international environment remains complex and severe, and factors such as domestic real estate market adjustments and weak corporate profitability still constrain investment growth,” Fu Linghui said. In the next stage, focus will be on key areas such as developing new productive forces, new urbanization, and comprehensive human development, combining “investment in material” and “investment in people” to better promote economic development and improve people’s livelihoods.

Beyond investment, demand-side indicators such as consumption and foreign trade also showed positive signs. From January to February, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.9 percentage points compared to December last year, and by 1.1 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter of last year, with market sales clearly rebounding; total import and export volume increased by 18.3% year-on-year, significantly faster than last year.

Industrial production accelerates notably

From January to February, industrial production accelerated significantly, with optimized and upgraded industrial structure, and continued improvement in development quality, becoming a prominent highlight in economic operation. Fu Linghui provided specific details.

Industrial production continued to accelerate. From the perspective of growth rate, industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.3% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to December last year. In terms of industries and products, most sectors and products saw a rebound in growth rates. Among 41 major industry categories, 31 experienced growth rate increases compared to December, with an increase rate of 75.6%. Out of over 600 key products, more than 350 saw growth rates improve compared to December, with nearly 60% showing positive growth.

Equipment manufacturing provided strong support. From January to February, the added value of large-scale equipment manufacturing increased by 9.3%, accounting for 33.5% of all industrial output above designated size.

Some traditional industries optimized and upgraded. In the same period, the added value of the petroleum processing industry increased by 10.2%, with biomass fuel processing growing by 55.3%; chemical fiber industry grew by 6.1%, with bio-based materials manufacturing increasing by 25.1%. These data indicate steady progress in the transformation and upgrading of traditional manufacturing industries, with new growth drivers gradually gathering, and some industries forming new growth points.

Emerging industries grew rapidly. From January to February, the added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 13.1% year-on-year, with digital product manufacturing increasing by 8.8%; smart vehicle equipment manufacturing and smart unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing increased by 46.3% and 26.6%, respectively, reflecting the sustained expansion of demand for intelligent products.

Moderate price rebound

In the first two months, driven by improved market supply and demand relations, prices showed a moderate rebound.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) overall showed an upward trend. In January and February, CPI increased by 0.2% and 1% month-on-month, respectively. In February, driven by the Spring Festival, the month-on-month increase was notably larger. From January to February, CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, maintaining the same growth rate as December last year, but expanding compared to the fourth quarter and the whole of last year, showing a mild rebound; core CPI excluding food and energy increased by 1.3% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to December.

Fu Linghui believed that the reasonable rebound of residents’ consumer prices is conducive to improving business operations, increasing residents’ income, and facilitating economic circulation. “Although international energy prices have fluctuated recently, impacting domestic prices to some extent, China’s market supply capacity for goods and services remains sufficient, and the foundation for price stability has not changed.”

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers showed a narrowing decline. In February, PPI decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, narrowing by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, with a continuous narrowing for three months; month-on-month, it has increased for five consecutive months.

The improvement in PPI is mainly influenced by increased demand in some domestic industries, the growth of new drivers affecting industrial product prices, and rising international commodity prices. The ongoing capacity management and “involution” competition regulation in key industries continue to promote price improvements.

“From January to February, China’s economy started strongly and developed positively. However, we must also recognize that external uncertainties remain high, and domestically, there are still contradictions such as strong supply but weak demand,” Fu Linghui said. He emphasized the need to implement more proactive macro policies, continue expanding domestic demand, optimize supply, develop new productive forces according to local conditions, deepen the construction of a unified national market, and promote sustained and healthy economic development.