The recent developments in the Crypto Assets market have sparked an in-depth discussion among investors about the relationship between MicroStrategy(MSTR) and Bitcoin(BTC). Data shows that in the past two market cycles, the peak stock price of MSTR occurred earlier than that of Bitcoin. In the last bull run, MSTR reached its peak 274 days ahead of Bitcoin; in the current cycle, this time difference is 267 days, remarkably similar.

Since November last year, MSTR has underperformed relative to Bitcoin. Technical analysis shows that MSTR is forming lower highs, while Bitcoin continues to create new highs. This phenomenon is similar to the previous market top period, but it is worth noting that the macro environment of each cycle has its uniqueness.

If Bitcoin continues its upward momentum in the fourth quarter of 2025, this pattern may be broken, and the reliability of MSTR as an early market top indicator will also decrease. However, the current weak performance of MSTR is still worth close attention from investors.

For investment strategies, directly holding Bitcoin may be wiser than holding MSTR. This not only avoids company-specific risks but also allows for more direct participation in the potential growth of the Crypto Assets market.

It is worth mentioning that the challenges faced by the Bitcoin treasury during the later stages of the bear market are also important factors that investors need to consider. These factors collectively provide important references for investors to formulate strategies in the current market environment.