India's largest securities depository, National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL), will log in to the exchange on August 6, 2025, with its stock price soaring like a rocket, becoming the most notable financial event of the summer. Issued at an IPO price of ₹800, NSDL opened at ₹880 on its first trading day (a rise of 10%), and experienced a big pump for three consecutive trading days, closing at ₹1,300.30 on August 8, with a cumulative rise of 62.5%. Its single-day trading volume once exceeded ₹6,923 billion, highlighting the market's enthusiasm.
##Listing Price Performance: Three-Day Surge Sets Record
The first day performance was stable: Opened at ₹880 on August 6, up 10% from the issuance price, and closed up 17% on the day, demonstrating investor confidence.
The next day saw a violent surge: a single-day rise of 20% over 7 days, breaking the thousand yuan barrier, with institutional buying continuing to pour in.
New all-time high on the third day: On the 8th, it reached a historical peak of ₹1,342.60 during the trading session, ultimately closing at ₹1,300.30, with a cumulative trading volume exceeding 102 million shares over three days.
This performance far exceeds analysts' previous prediction of a 15% first-day rise, and market sentiment has shifted from 'optimistic' to 'frenzied'.
##Early Investor Returns: 650 Times the Capital Myth
The listing of NSDL has created a number of "legendary" return cases, with early shareholders seeing astonishing paper returns:
State Bank of India (SBI): Acquired 6 million shares at a cost of ₹2 per share, current value ₹78.018 billion, return rate 650,050%.
IDBI Bank: Holds 29.98 million shares, invested ₹5.996 billion, appreciated to ₹389.88 billion, achieving a 650 times return.
National Stock Exchange (NSE): Holding 15% shares at an average price of ₹12.28, value rises 105 times to ₹3,900.90 billion.
These data confirm the enormous potential of unlisted equity trading and indirectly reflect the market's recognition of the long-term value of NSDL.
##Market Reaction: The Logic Behind High Valuations
Despite the short-term big pump in stock prices, the valuation of NSDL still appears "restrained" compared to industry leader CDSL:
PE ratio advantage: Based on the expected earnings for the fiscal year 2027, NSDL's PE is 47 times, lower than CDSL's 61 times.
Business moat: NSDL manages assets worth ₹5,109.1 trillion, serving over 40 million depository accounts, with a market share firmly in first place.
Industry explosion period: The compound annual growth rate of custodial accounts in India reaches 53% (FY19-FY25), with policies such as T+1 settlement and mandatory electronic processing continuously driving industry expansion.
##Future Price Prediction: Initial Divergence Among Institutions
Analysts have differing views on the current stock price trend, but generally agree on its long-term value:
short term (within 1 month)
Optimistic scenario: If funds continue to flow in, it may rise to ₹1,500 (an 87.5% increase from the IPO price).
Cautious scenario: Profit-taking pressure may cause a pullback to the ₹1,100–1,200 support level.
mid to long term (6-12 months)
Growth momentum: If the Q1 FY26 financial report (expected to be released at the end of August) shows profit growth, it will strengthen the valuation logic.
Target price benchmark: Based on a 30%+ annual increase in custody accounts and asset scale expansion, the neutral target price is ₹1,450 (an 11.5% rise from the current price).
The table below summarizes the price predictions at different points in time:
| Period | Optimistic Forecast | Baseline Forecast | Cautious Forecast | Main Basis |
| ---------- | ---------------- | ----------------- | ------------------ | ------------------------ |
| Short term (1 month) | ₹1,500 (+87.5%) | ₹1,400 (+75%) | ₹1,100-1,200 (+37.5-50%) | Capital flow, Q1 earnings report expectations |
| Medium term (6 months) | ₹1,750 (+118%) | ₹1,450 (+81%) | ₹1,300 (+62.5%) | Account growth 30%, favorable policies |
| Long-term (1 year) | ₹2,000 (+150%) | ₹1,600 (+100%) | ₹1,200 (+50%) | Market share, new business expansion |
##Investor Strategy Recommendations
New share subscribers: Can hold in stages, pay attention to Q1 financial report and choose the right time to take partial profits.
Non-winners: Wait for the ₹1,100–1,200 range to buy on dips, avoiding chasing highs.
Long-term allocation: NSDL, as a leader in market infrastructure, benefits from the deepening of the Indian capital market and is suitable for inclusion in the core holdings of financial technology.
##Conclusion
NSDL has proven its scarcity as a core asset of India's financial infrastructure with a listing extravaganza of 62.5%. Despite the intensified short-term volatility risk, its dominance in the depository market (over 70% share), asset-light model, and policy moat provide solid support for long-term value. With the first quarterly report disclosure at the end of August, the stock price may welcome a new catalyst. Investors need to remain rational amidst the frenzy and seize the second entry opportunity brought by the pullback.
View Original
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
NSDL Listing Price Prediction: Soars 62.5% in the First Week, Setting a Record. What Does the Future Hold?
India's largest securities depository, National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL), will log in to the exchange on August 6, 2025, with its stock price soaring like a rocket, becoming the most notable financial event of the summer. Issued at an IPO price of ₹800, NSDL opened at ₹880 on its first trading day (a rise of 10%), and experienced a big pump for three consecutive trading days, closing at ₹1,300.30 on August 8, with a cumulative rise of 62.5%. Its single-day trading volume once exceeded ₹6,923 billion, highlighting the market's enthusiasm.
##Listing Price Performance: Three-Day Surge Sets Record
This performance far exceeds analysts' previous prediction of a 15% first-day rise, and market sentiment has shifted from 'optimistic' to 'frenzied'.
##Early Investor Returns: 650 Times the Capital Myth The listing of NSDL has created a number of "legendary" return cases, with early shareholders seeing astonishing paper returns:
These data confirm the enormous potential of unlisted equity trading and indirectly reflect the market's recognition of the long-term value of NSDL.
##Market Reaction: The Logic Behind High Valuations Despite the short-term big pump in stock prices, the valuation of NSDL still appears "restrained" compared to industry leader CDSL:
##Future Price Prediction: Initial Divergence Among Institutions Analysts have differing views on the current stock price trend, but generally agree on its long-term value:
short term (within 1 month)
mid to long term (6-12 months)
The table below summarizes the price predictions at different points in time:
| Period | Optimistic Forecast | Baseline Forecast | Cautious Forecast | Main Basis | | ---------- | ---------------- | ----------------- | ------------------ | ------------------------ | | Short term (1 month) | ₹1,500 (+87.5%) | ₹1,400 (+75%) | ₹1,100-1,200 (+37.5-50%) | Capital flow, Q1 earnings report expectations | | Medium term (6 months) | ₹1,750 (+118%) | ₹1,450 (+81%) | ₹1,300 (+62.5%) | Account growth 30%, favorable policies | | Long-term (1 year) | ₹2,000 (+150%) | ₹1,600 (+100%) | ₹1,200 (+50%) | Market share, new business expansion |
##Investor Strategy Recommendations
##Conclusion NSDL has proven its scarcity as a core asset of India's financial infrastructure with a listing extravaganza of 62.5%. Despite the intensified short-term volatility risk, its dominance in the depository market (over 70% share), asset-light model, and policy moat provide solid support for long-term value. With the first quarterly report disclosure at the end of August, the stock price may welcome a new catalyst. Investors need to remain rational amidst the frenzy and seize the second entry opportunity brought by the pullback.