Market Dynamics and Policy Games

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is facing a complex situation. Chairman Powell stated that the tariff plan could undermine the achievements in controlling inflation, affecting the interest rate cut process. Although there are still uncertainties regarding the rate decision in July, the flexibility of the policy seems to have increased, and weak employment data may lower the threshold for rate cuts.

At the same time, the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill narrowly passed in the Senate, and the House will debate and vote on it on Wednesday. The bill plans to cut taxes, reduce social spending, while increasing military and immigration enforcement budgets, and is expected to add about $3.3 trillion to the national debt over the next 10 years.

In terms of trade, the U.S. President insists on the July 9 tariff deadline, especially pressuring Japan, which exacerbates tensions in the global market. It is noteworthy that U.S. stocks will close early at 1 AM Beijing time on July 4, and the market will be closed all day on July 4.

On the occasion of the 28th anniversary of Hong Kong's return, the first licensed virtual asset exchange has set up an experience booth at the West Kowloon High-Speed Rail Station. Industry insiders believe that Web3 is not just a technological iteration, but a redefinition of efficiency and trust paradigms. It is expected that by 2025, Hong Kong will play a leading role in the new global financial order.

Bitcoin fell to $105,000 this morning. Analysts pointed out that the upward momentum has shown signs of weakening, and it may enter a consolidation phase. Spot trading volume has decreased, and profit-taking has increased, with the breakeven price for short-term holders at $98,700 serving as key support. Historical data shows that the third quarter typically performs weakly, and volatility is expected to decrease further. Some analysts warn that the real sell-off has not yet begun, and Bitcoin may drop below $100,000, with altcoins facing even larger declines.

The on-chain market is relatively flat, but the trend of stocks being tokenized has brought some highlights. The share price of a certain trading platform has hit a new high, driving a surge in related Meme coins on the Solana chain.

Key Data

As of July 2, 12:00 HKT:

• Bitcoin: $106,465 ( Year-to-date +13.8% ), daily trading volume $26.059 billion
• Ethereum: $2,439.94 ( Year-to-date -26.88% ), daily trading volume $14.38 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 63( Greed )
• Average GAS: BTC 2 sat/vB, ETH 0.7 Gwei
• Market Share: BTC 64.6%, ETH 9.0%
• 24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 1.1186
• Sector changes: AI sector -4.48%, RWA sector -4.72%
• 24-hour liquidations: 100,830 people, total amount $256 million
• BTC Trend Channel: Upper Bound $107,151.13, Lower Bound $105,029.32
• ETH Trend Channel: Upper bound $2467.39, Lower bound $2418.53

ETF Flows

As of July 1:

• Bitcoin ETF: -$342 million ( End of consecutive net inflow on the 15th )
• Ethereum ETF: +40.6798 million USD ( net inflow for 3 consecutive days )

Today's Outlook

• A certain platform will launch Echo Protocol(ECHO)
• A certain exchange has launched Wormhole (W)
• Rex-Osprey Solana Staking ETF expected to launch
• U.S. June ADP employment numbers, failure rate, and non-farm employment population data released
• Ethena(ENA) will unlock approximately 40.6 million tokens.

Top 500 market cap largest gains today: Humanity Protocol (H) 106.52%, Cobak Token (CBK) 50.90%, Useless Coin (USELESS) 24.89%, Quantum Resistant Ledger (QRL) 17.70%, Aleo (ALEO) 16.68%.

Hot News

• A cannabis company establishes a subsidiary to create a DOGE treasury
• A trading platform will launch CROSS(CROSS)
• London listed companies increase Bitcoin investment proportion to about 40%
• Analysis suggests that Bitcoin's average increase in July was 9.1%, potentially challenging $116,000.
• Well-known author buys BTC again, optimistic about the future
• A Japanese gaming company plans to invest 1 billion yen in cryptocurrency investment.
• Exchange analysis: BTC usually performs weakly in Q3.
• The Move Foundation received 45 million $MOVE from a certain platform.
• Trusta.AI announces its token economic model
• A family-related cryptocurrency project raised $220 million for Bitcoin mining.
• Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in September.
• Katana mainnet launched and incentive program initiated
• Circle applies for a U.S. banking license
• A trading platform plans to launch its own blockchain.
• US Treasury Secretary: Legislation on stablecoins may be completed by mid-July.
• BitMine announces a private placement of $250 million
• Major investment banks give Circle a "downgrade" rating