Fed Rate Cut Expectations and Crypto Assets Market Trends

Recently, Fed Chairman Powell delivered a speech affirming the achievements in inflation control over the past year, but also stated that more progress is needed before considering interest rate cuts. The latest U.S. employment data shows that non-farm payrolls increased by 206,000 in June, slightly above expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%. These economic indicators provide a new perspective for the market, with current expectations for a rate cut in September rising to 71.8%.

In the field of Crypto Assets, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF has performed impressively, with a net inflow of $238 million last week. However, the price of Bitcoin has shown a downward trend, falling from a high of $63,800 to a low of $53,500, a decline of over 16%. This phenomenon indicates that the correlation between ETF capital flows and Bitcoin price movements is weakening.

The stablecoin market has also made significant progress. A well-known stablecoin issuer announced that its US dollar and euro stablecoins comply with the newly enacted EU MiCA legislation and have begun official issuance. Another stablecoin company received full approval from the Monetary Authority of Singapore and will collaborate with local major banks to issue stablecoins.

It is worth noting that the Mt.Gox exchange recently transferred a large amount of Bitcoin to a new wallet, possibly in preparation for the upcoming repayments to creditors. The German government also started transferring a large amount of Bitcoin in mid-June, with a total value of approximately $572 million.

In terms of regulation, the Basel Committee has revised the Crypto Assets standards and introduced a new risk disclosure framework aimed at enhancing market transparency. This framework is scheduled to be officially implemented on January 1, 2026.

From a technical analysis perspective, the Bitcoin daily chart shows a double top pattern, and the price has fallen below the key support level. The current support range is between $50,000 and $52,000. If this range is broken, it may further decline to around $47,000.

Overall, despite the continued decline in Bitcoin prices this week, the non-farm data released on Friday brought some positive factors to the investment market, prompting a rebound in Bitcoin prices. Investors should closely monitor the upcoming US CPI data and be wary of potential market fluctuations.