Trading Insights and Strategies Shared by Independent Trader Raxy

From Primary Investment to Independent Trading

In January 2021, Raxy entered the cryptocurrency industry, having participated in GameFi projects and worked at a venture capital firm. Over two years of VC experience exposed him to a large number of projects. At the beginning of this year, Raxy left the VC industry, started systematically learning trading, and became an independent trader.

Raxy's trading journey began with losses. After a significant rise in Bitcoin at the beginning of the year, he attempted to trade altcoins using the "valuation nesting" logic, initially making some profits. However, in March, the market experienced unusual changes, and by analyzing the market shares of Bitcoin and USDT, he realized that trading altcoins had become more challenging.

After reflection, Raxy believes that Bitcoin is the most suitable variety for full speculation in the cryptocurrency market, gradually shifting the trading focus to Bitcoin.

Currently, Raxy manages approximately 2 million dollars in funds, utilizing the following allocation strategy:

1. Invest 80%-90% in the spot market, using the Turtle Trading Method combined with key moving average indicators to capture trends.
2. 10%-20% is used for contract trading, mainly relying on traditional chart pattern analysis and small technical indicators to assist decision-making.

Moving Average Trading Strategy

Raxy believes that market structure can be divided into two types: oscillation and trend, which continuously cycle between each other. He mainly uses the EMA moving average system, paying special attention to EMA20 and EMA200, supplemented by indicators such as MACD, RSI, and SRSI to confirm the trend.

Specific operating rules:

1. Buy when EMA20 crosses above EMA200
2. Sell when EMA20 crosses below EMA200

This strategy ensures participation during significant rises and avoids risks during major declines. Although moving average trading may produce false signals in a volatile market, its simplicity and clarity help to avoid distractions caused by emotional fluctuations, making it suitable for traders with unstable mindsets.

Altcoin Trading Strategies

For altcoins, Raxy believes that the moving average strategy is relatively ineffective. He considers the daily EMA20 as an important reference indicator:

1. When altcoins are not above the daily EMA20, it is usually not advisable to conduct large operations.
2. When the daily EMA20 is rising or is broken, it may indicate that there is real buying power in the market, and trading can be done according to the moving average rules.

Raxy emphasizes that trading pairs of altcoins require higher standards for profit-taking and position management, necessitating precise judgment and strict control. He prefers to use daily chart levels to guide operations in order to reduce the complexity of hourly levels.

Turtle Trading Strategy Combined with Moving Averages

Raxy combines the Turtle Trading method with moving averages, primarily relying on moving averages. The Turtle Trading method is more effective in market environments with clear trends and less noise, confirming the market trend direction through the breakout of key levels.

Raxy believes that choosing a straightforward trading system can avoid overthinking and erroneous judgments. After multiple attempts, he ultimately chose simple and common indicators such as MACD and trading volume.

"Topping" Strategy

Raxy values the SRSI indicator:

1. Implement a defensive strategy by reducing positions when SRSI forms a death cross.
2. Consider re-establishing positions when SRSI has a golden cross.

He will also observe the behavior of large investors. When large investors stop buying in bulk through the spot market, it may indicate that the upward momentum is weakening. However, Raxy admits that accurately judging the market peak remains highly challenging.

Avoiding the Mistakes of a "Stop Doing List"

Raxy summarized several trading behaviors to avoid:

1. Do not set unrealistic integer level profit targets.
2. Respect the trading system signals and allocate positions reasonably.
3. Avoid running two strategies on the same account

Building a Trading Mindset

Raxy shared six trading insights:

1. Treat trading as a high-difficulty challenge in the game of life.
2. Primary market investment focuses on character, while secondary market core is position management.
3. There is no perfect strategy; adjustments must be made according to market phases.
4. Start simplifying after the realization of trading, don't fantasize about getting rich, and don't overly worry about losses.
5. Align with the trend to increase certainty
6. Opportunities always exist; the key is one's own state.

Raxy emphasizes that finding a trading strategy that matches one's personality and continuously adjusting it is the key to a trader's success.