Analysis of Attention Value and Market Trends

1. Macroeconomic Environment and Market Trends

The Federal Reserve is wary of inflation risks, and the pace of interest rate cuts may slow down.

Recent minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting show that participants are generally concerned about the rising risks of inflation, particularly focusing on the potential impacts of tariffs and immigration policies that the new government might implement. The meeting unanimously agreed that the timing to slow the pace of monetary easing is approaching, reflecting confidence in strong economic activity. Although this meeting lowered the target interest rate range to 4.25%-4.5%, officials remain cautious about future rate cuts, expecting only a 75 basis point reduction for the entire year of 2025.

Market expectations are that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at the end of this month, with the first rate cut potentially delayed until June. The meeting emphasized that, although inflation has eased over the past year, recent data that exceeded expectations and policy uncertainty have raised concerns. The Federal Reserve Chair stated that the current economic situation requires more cautious monetary policy decisions, suggesting that the pace of rate cuts may slow in the coming months to respond to the changing economic environment.

Rising global bond yields challenge the cryptocurrency bull market

Since the end of 2024, the cryptocurrency market has continued to strengthen, but the rise in global government bond yields has raised concerns. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has risen to 4.70%, nearing a multi-year high, up more than 100 basis points since the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in September. The yield on the 30-year U.K. government bond has also reached 5.35%, a new high since 1998.

This trend may affect investor sentiment and challenge the ongoing bull market in the cryptocurrency space. Rising bond yields reflect changes in the global economic environment, which may influence investors' choices among high-risk assets and potentially reduce demand for cryptocurrencies. Investors may reassess their risk preferences, impacting the cryptocurrency market.

2. Hot Topics in the Web3 Field

The process of cryptocurrency regulatory legislation is accelerating.

The outgoing chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has once again emphasized the urgency of cryptocurrency regulatory legislation. He expects the legislative process to take 6 to 10 months, with subsequent rule-making possibly taking another year. He mentioned that the commission is exploring the establishment of a "sandbox" environment to allow crypto participants to operate within a controlled framework.

Some legislative efforts pushed by lawmakers, though not perfect, are seen as a positive attempt. Existing regulations struggle to cope with the challenges of the cryptocurrency market, and there is an urgent need to update and improve the regulatory framework. The new acting chair will play a key role in the new regulatory environment.

The U.S. Department of Justice has been authorized to sell a large amount of Bitcoin.

The U.S. Department of Justice has been authorized to sell approximately 69,370 bitcoins, valued at $6.5 billion. The government currently holds about 198,109 bitcoins and 54,753 ethers, with a total value of nearly $18.8 billion. The Department of Justice applied to sell due to the volatility of bitcoin prices, but the specific timing is yet to be determined.

With only a short time left before the new government takes office, the new president has stated that he will not sell any Bitcoin, making future selling plans highly uncertain. Market expectations show a selling probability of 22%. As a result of this news, the price of Bitcoin has dropped nearly 2%, quoted at $93,365.2.

3. Analysis of Hot Projects and Sectors

G.A.M.E. Fund 1 promotes the development of Web3 games and AI.

A certain company and a certain organization jointly launched the G.A.M.E. Fund 1, aimed at promoting the development of Web3 games, AI agents, and social applications. The first round of investment is confirmed for the mobile casual gaming company Gomble Games, which has over 110 million global users.

The fund focuses on three areas: Web3 game innovation, AI agent development, and social content creation. The project leader emphasized that the future of gaming lies in the combination of high-performance infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and social connectivity.

$Smelt: Controversial meme coin rises

$Smelt originated from a political controversy in California, USA, involving the conflict between wildfire response and endangered species protection. This meme coin quickly sparked heated discussions in the community, reaching a market value of 6 million dollars. Notably, this token was automatically launched by AI.

4. Market Sector Rotation

The current market hot sectors and internal changes are as follows: