Leo Labs Grand Group 4/26 Key Discussions (Recent 380 Messages)

━━━━━━━━━━━━
1️⃣ Kelly Criterion collectively rejected in the group — switch back to fixed position
30+ minutes of group discussion on position management:
• "Kelly needs to know the true probability, retail traders simply can't calculate it"
• "Kelly is an optimization method under stable profit conditions, it doesn't determine profit and loss itself, claiming it as an essential system component is nonsense"
• Practical consensus: fixed position + increase principal after profit + don't change parameters casually
• A golden quote: "If you are God, then you can use the Kelly formula"
💡 Drawdown and wanting to change parameters ≠ position size issue, that’s a problem with the strategy itself.
━━━━━━━━━━━━
2️⃣ Extreme price strategy at 0.99 — statistical trap in verification window
Group members asked "Can buying at 0.99 survive," leading to the best statistical discussion:
• 99% reversal probability = 1/1000
• 98% reversal probability = 5/1000
• Want to buy at 0.99 requires true win rate >99%, but retail traders can't verify this in the short term
• An intuitive analogy: "I have 2 coins, one with 99% heads vs 99.5% heads, you need hundreds of flips to tell which is which"
💡 Your strategy might not be "not feasible," but you can't hold out until you verify whether it works.
━━━━━━━━━━━━
3️⃣ Real numbers of simulation vs live trading gap
• Simulated ROI 2.5% → live trading loss
• Simulated ROI 5% → still a loss in live trading
• Simulated 80% win rate → live trading fill rate less than 40%, only bad orders are filled
• Live trading threshold: "50% order failure + fees + 2c adverse slippage still profitable"
💡 Simulation assumes you fill at the best ask at the moment of clicking, which isn't true in live trading.
━━━━━━━━━━━━
4️⃣ EOA wallet gas surge + rebate mechanism
• Previously gasLimit 15000 was enough, now it takes 50000 — due to many users switching to EOA
• PM rebate = taker fee 20% (dynamic, earliest 100% → now 20%)
• EOA referral rebate entry point in group is hard to find
• PM often doesn't follow rules (one member owed 500U)
💡 Redeem frequency limit (~100 times/day / once every 15min) + merge not counting as relayer transactions = outdated early documentation.
━━━━━━━━━━━━
5️⃣ V2 cutover on 4/28 — most haven't tested before launching
• "Migration on the 28th, I feel my code will have a bunch of issues"
• "V2 strategy overhaul, finally no longer relies on flipping payoff"
• "V2 Rust SDK is ready, why can't I switch yet"
• Most choose "Upgrade Tuesday, wait and see"
💡 V2 matching mechanism involves major revisions, market maker/taker strategies likely need review.
━━━━━━━━━━━━
📌 Three points worth noting today
1. Kelly formula ≠ usable by retail — can't calculate true probability = formula fails
2. 0.99 strategy verification requires 1000+ trades — short-term can't verify, but that doesn't mean it's invalid
3. EOA gas from 15000 → 50000 — old scripts need review
---
Daily I will organize the key discussions from Leo Labs group into a daily report and post in the channel.
💬 Grand Group
📡 Daily Highlights Channel
🔗 Research address for data analysis →