Notre pays a une réserve de change de 3 342,1 milliards de dollars à la fin mars. La banque centrale a augmenté ses réserves d'or pendant 17 mois consécutifs. Les institutions prévoient que l'achat d'or par la banque centrale pourrait s'accélérer.

Finance China News April 7 (Reporter Cao Yunyi) Today, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange released statistics showing that by the end of March 2026, China’s foreign exchange reserves stood at 33,421 billion USD, a decrease of 85.7 billion USD from the end of February, a decline of 2.5%. During the same period, the central bank data indicated that gold reserves at the end of March were 74.38 million ounces, an increase of 160,000 ounces from the end of the previous month.

Regarding the significant decrease in foreign exchange reserves this time, industry insiders told Finance China News that, affected by the war, rising oil prices have increased inflation expectations, and the market has even begun to bet on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. Under the dual support of prolonged high interest rates and the return of safe-haven funds, the US dollar index continues to strengthen.

At the same time, despite the strengthening of the dollar suppressing gold price gains, the central bank has continued to increase gold reserves for 17 consecutive months. Institutions believe that in the short term, gold prices will still be influenced by multiple macro factors causing a trading sentiment, possibly continuing to fluctuate; but in the medium to long term, factors such as fiscal deficits, geopolitical tensions, and currency concerns still support gold demand.

US Dollar Index Accelerates Rise, Foreign Exchange Reserves Decline Significantly

“In March, the ongoing escalation of conflicts between the US, Iran, and Israel, Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and disruptions to Middle Eastern oil exports caused crude oil prices to surge, leading to a broad decline in global asset prices. Rising oil prices have increased inflation expectations, and the market has even begun to bet on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. Under the dual support of prolonged high interest rates and the return of safe-haven funds, the US dollar index continues to strengthen. Affected by asset price changes and exchange rate fluctuations, foreign exchange reserves at the end of March decreased by 85.7 billion USD month-on-month to 33,421 billion USD,” said Wen Bin, Chief Economist at Minsheng Bank, to Finance China News.

Today, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange released data on foreign exchange reserves at the end of March, showing that by the end of March 2026, China’s foreign exchange reserves were 33,421 billion USD, down 85.7 billion USD from February, a decrease of 2.5%.

The Foreign Exchange Administration stated that in March 2026, influenced by the global macro environment, major economies’ monetary policies and expectations, the US dollar index rose, and major global financial asset prices fell. The combined effects of exchange rate conversions and asset price changes led to a decline in foreign exchange reserves for the month.

“The US dollar index accelerated its rise, with the monthly increase reaching 2.29%, the largest in nearly eight months. We estimate that the appreciation of the dollar this month affected China’s foreign reserves by about 30 billion USD,” said Wang Qing, Chief Macroeconomic Analyst at Orient Securities, to Finance China News. He noted that at the end of March, the foreign exchange reserves decreased month-on-month, the largest decline since February 2016, mainly due to the rapid rise of the US dollar index and the sharp fall in global financial asset prices.

Specifically, in terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index briefly broke the 100 mark in March, closing at 99.96 at month-end, up 2.4% month-on-month. Non-dollar currencies declined: the yen, euro, and pound fell by 1.7%, 22.2%, and 1.9% respectively against the dollar. Since foreign exchange reserves are valued in USD, depreciation of non-dollar currencies will lower the USD-denominated foreign exchange reserve scale.

Regarding bond prices, inflation expectations led to a 33 basis point increase in the yield of 10-year US Treasuries to 4.3%, the 10-year eurozone government bond yield increased by 37 basis points to 3.09%, and Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose by 23 basis points to 2.37%. In the global stock markets, the US S&P 500 index fell by 5.1%, with US stocks already oscillating due to overvalued tech stocks, and geopolitical conflicts further exacerbated this trend; the Nikkei index plummeted by 13.2%, with Japan’s energy sector highly scarce, relying on Middle Eastern oil imports for about 95%, and the capital markets reacting strongly to the conflict.

Wen Bin stated that looking ahead, exports will continue to play a fundamental role in the balance of payments, with the renminbi’s valuation advantage and allocation value becoming more prominent, and securities investments are expected to continue reasonable inflows. China’s economy remains generally stable with progress, and high-quality development has achieved new results, providing solid support for maintaining the basic stability of foreign exchange reserves.

Central Bank Continues to Increase Gold Reserves for 17 Months, Short-term Gold Prices Fluctuate

Regarding gold reserves, China’s gold reserves at the end of March were 74.38 million ounces (about 2,313.48 tons), an increase of 160,000 ounces (about 4.98 tons) from the previous month, and 74.22 million ounces (about 2,308.5 tons) at the end of February, marking the 17th consecutive month of gold accumulation.

Wang Qing pointed out that the increase of 160,000 ounces is the highest in nearly thirteen months. “Recently, the central bank has continued to increase gold holdings, mainly because since the current US government took office, new changes have occurred in global political and economic situations. This means that despite gold prices being at historical highs, from the perspective of optimizing international reserve structures, increasing gold holdings has become more necessary.”

Today, the spot price of gold was 1029.63 yuan/gram, down 1.53 yuan/gram from the previous day, a decline of 0.15%, continuing a weak oscillation pattern recently. Market analysts believe that the strengthening of the dollar is the core factor suppressing gold prices.

The World Gold Council released its February central bank gold purchase report on April 2, 2026, showing that central banks net bought 19 tons of gold that month, below the 26 tons average in 2025, but rebounding from January’s net purchase of 5 tons. Some analysts even suggest that the previous decline in gold prices has created a “gold pit,” making it a good time to buy gold now.

Goldman Sachs recently reiterated its long-term bullish outlook on gold in a research report. Goldman Sachs believes that the recent decline in gold “has clearly overshot,” markets overestimate inflation and underestimate growth slowdown; as prices stabilize, central bank gold purchases are expected to accelerate again, with monthly purchases around 60 tons; combined with the expectation of two more rate cuts this year, maintaining a target price of $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026.

The Barclays research team recently published a quarterly global economic outlook report stating that since the US-Iran conflict erupted, the gains in gold since 2026 have been fully retraced, presenting a relatively good entry point.

Institutions believe that looking ahead, in the short term, gold prices will still be influenced by multiple macro factors causing trading sentiment, possibly continuing to fluctuate; but in the medium to long term, factors such as fiscal deficits, geopolitical tensions, and currency concerns will continue to support gold demand.

(Reporter Cao Yunyi, Finance China News)