Daily News | CZ’s Confession Boosts the Approval of Bitcoin Spot ETFs, Multiple DeFi Platforms' Funds Stolen, Accumulated Losses Exceeding $150 Million

Crypto Daily Digest: CZ’s confession boosts the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs; Multiple DeFi platforms have been stolen

According to the latest report from Matrixport, with CZ stepping down and the fine amount lower than the previously feared $10 billion, Binance is likely to remain one of the top three exchanges in the next 2-3 years. There may be pressure to ‘rationalize’ a company with 6000 employees.

Although this plea protocol does not include the US SEC, it is a very favorable outcome for Zhao Changpeng and Binance themselves. Some people may believe that US institutions have cleaned up the industry this year by disbanding banks related to US cryptocurrencies, as two of them operate an internal ledger that crypto companies can use to transfer fiat currency around the clock. It can be said that the remaining few (considered) major participants are no longer many, and the market is digesting a major risk aversion event.

Regarding the impact of this regulation, the report analyzes that more exchanges will strengthen their compliance plans and become part of the monitoring sharing protocol, which will help approve spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. Through this plea protocol, expectations for spot Bitcoin ETFs may have increased to 100%, as the entire industry will be forced to comply with the rules that traditional financial companies must follow. More importantly, the whitewashing of this industry will strengthen institutional investors’ comparison of the cases adopted by Bitcoin, and may make Bitcoin a safe haven asset in investors’ investment portfolios.

Institutions are approaching, and all enforcement actions by US agencies this year are a step in this direction. As the macro environment continues to provide favorable conditions and institutional demand, 2024 is likely to be another strong year for Bitcoin.

Conor Grogan, the director of Coinbase, stated in an article on the X platform that according to the Proof of Reserves (PoR) data of Binance Corporation, its crypto asset holdings include a total of $6.35 billion in assets and $3.19 billion in stablecoin, excluding off-chain cash balances or funds not in the PoR wallet. Binance is most likely to pay a full $4.3 billion fine from the Ministry of Justice without selling crypto assets at all.

On November 22nd, according to The Block, JPMorgan believes that the settlement reached between Binance and US prosecutors is positive for the crypto trading platform and the entire industry. JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigrtzoglou pointed out that this settlement eliminates “the potential ic risk caused by the hypothetical Binance collapse.”

Recently, there have been frequent safety incidents, and it is necessary to pay more attention to preventing risks in major household chores. At around 20:00 on the evening of November 22nd, according to PeckShield monitoring, HECO Chain’s cross chain bridge experienced an abnormal outflow of $86.6 million in funds. Analysis indicates that the outflow of funds is related to a leaked operator account that has been operating since October 8, 2022.

At around 23:00 on November 22nd, Cyvers s reported that three hot wallets of HTX were affected by today’s security incident, with a total estimated loss of $13.6 million. In addition, it seems that the hacker forgot to redeem the $2.19 million ARIX in one of the wallets (address: 0x5e552a4fc6d5c4f5221ca65dd91040c2c830d119).

It is currently unclear whether this incident is related to the previous $125 million security incident on the Poloniex platform.

At around 13:00 (UTC) on November 22nd, according to MistTrack monitoring, SafeTrade Exchange was suspected of Rug Pull. The founder of SlowMist, Yu Xian, stated that SafeTrade is a centralized mining currency concept platform with an estimated impact of at least $6.6 million.

At around 7:00 on November 23rd, according to Twitter user Spreek, DEX aggregator and liquidity platform KyberSwap experienced abnormally large transfers on multiple chains, suspected of being attacked, and currently have a total stolen amount of approximately $47 million.

On November 23rd, the attacker’s address labeled “CyberSwap Explorer 1” left a message on the chain saying, “Dear CyberSwap developers, employees, DAO members, and liquidity providers, I will start negotiations after a few hours of full rest. Thank you.”

In terms of smart money turnover, MATIC, BLUR, and MNT rank at the top of the Smart Money 24-hour inflow chart.

According to Nansen 2 data, Smart Money’s 24-hour Ethereum network fund inflow tracking list is as follows: ETH: approximately $148 million, quoted at $2069.6, with a 24-hour increase of 5.59%; MATIC: About 6.59 million US dollars, with a quotation of 0.779 US dollars, a 24-hour increase of 4.86%; BLUR: About 4.31 million US dollars, with a quotation of 0.499 US dollars, a 24-hour increase of 35.4%; MNT: About 2.76 million US dollars, with a quotation of 0.462 US dollars, a decrease of 1.9% within 24 hours.

Today’s Main Token Trends

BTC

The short-term head and shoulders top structure has been disrupted, and this morning saw a breakthrough of the key resistance level at $37,980. The mid-term structure has reversed into a W-bottom pattern. Two possible scenarios within the converging triangle range: Breakout above $37,980 with potential targets at $40,500 and $42,015, or a bearish scenario with a fall below the upward trend, cautioning against a drop to $40,000.

ETH

The four-hour chart has successfully broken the large downtrend, forming a short-term bottom pattern with ongoing consolidation. In the bearish scenario, a retest of $1,857 may occur, and aggressive bears should cautiously manage positions above the support. Bulls should monitor a potential pullback to the neckline at $2,037, with a breakout strategy targeting $2,381.

BNB

Short-term volume is notably weak, and failure to reclaim the key support at $246 keeps the balance between bulls and bears at the neckline of $246. If this level is not held, there is a risk of testing the $221.3 support. Caution is advised if short-term falls below $221.3, and long-term falls below $203.6.

Macro: Gold rebounds strongly, global economic outlook remains worrying in 2024

On Wednesday, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States for the week ending November 18th recorded 209000, lower than the expected 226000 and the lowest since the week ending October 14th. The number of Americans continuing to apply for unemployment benefits has decreased for the first time in two months. The monthly rate of durable goods orders in the United States in October recorded -5.4%, a new low since April 2020.

Alternatively, due to the market’s belief that the US labor market did not cool as quickly as expected, the US dollar index rebounded from a two-and-a-half-month low and briefly returned above the 104 level in the US market. It then took back some of its gains and ended up 0.26% higher at 103.88. US bond yields fell first and then rose. The 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.408%; The two-year US Treasury bond yield, which is more sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s policy interest rates, briefly rose to an intraday high of 4.94%, ultimately closing at 4.897%.

Spot gold briefly broke through the $2,000 mark during the European session and rose to the intraday high of $2,006.38. However, during the US session, it took back most of its gains and missed the 1990 mark, ultimately closing down 0.42% at $1989.95 per ounce; Spot silver closed down 0.46% at $23.63 per ounce.

Affected by the postponement of a ministerial meeting by OPEC, oil prices fell sharply by 4% within two days. WTI crude oil briefly fell to an intraday low of 73.85 US dollars, then recovered most of its losses and ultimately closed down 1.31% at 76.76 US dollars per barrel; Brent crude oil briefly missed the $80 mark and fell to an intraday low of $78.53, eventually regaining some of its lost ground, closing 1.08% lower at $81.53 per barrel.

The three major US stock indexes ended up in a volatile session, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.53%, the S&P 500 Index up 0.41%, and the Nasdaq up 0.46%. Microsoft (MSFT.O) closed up more than 1%, continuing to hit a new closing high, while INVIDIA (NVDA.O) fell 2.4%.

As the Federal Reserve’s expectation of interest rate cuts intensifies, investors may be delighted by the shift in the global monetary policy cycle, believing that this confirms that a soft landing is almost certain. However, according to Perkins’ report, even if inflation in the United States and globally shows signs of cooling down, the view of a soft landing is wrong.

“Unfortunately, the journey ahead is still full of danger, and both difficult landings and non-landings can occur,” Perkins said.

According to TS Lombard, as 2024 approaches, investors may need to keep in mind three scenarios:

-If a hard landing occurs, weak demand leads to an increase in unemployment, while consumer spending and confidence continue to decline, which in turn damages corporate profits and leads to another round of layoffs. The deterioration of the credit cycle has added another reflective channel that threatens the economy. These are the real drivers of economic recession.

When a crisis begins, there is enormous uncertainty about the final depth and duration of the recession, which is precisely the reason for stifling risky assets. Inflation will eventually ease, especially when the labor market “weakens”; But the loose policies of central banks will not immediately prevent economic deterioration. The danger point of the market lies in the interval between severe macroeconomic deterioration and monetary policy response.

-If there is an expected soft landing, then in this situation, the overall macroeconomic environment is stable and inflation disappears. The unemployment rate remained stable or slightly increased but did not trigger any adverse reactions that could be defined as a hard landing. Central banks either keep interest rates unchanged or carry out “preventive interest rate cuts” similar to those in 1995, allowing monetary policy to adjust back to a more neutral state. The medium-term inflation risk is roughly balanced, and central banks are not in a hurry to return to monetary tightening. Economic growth has resumed, and the business cycle continues after a brief interruption.

-If there is a special situation where inflation does not land, it either does not decline rapidly as expected by the central bank (reaching a level they can tolerate, which is not necessarily 2%), undergoes a reversal, or rebounds on the basis of much stronger economic data than expected. Instead of cutting interest rates, the authorities were forced to continue tightening monetary policy - perhaps after a brief pause.

The reason why everyone had expected a recession to occur in 2023 to be postponed was simply that the economy is still “overheating,” and further tightening actions may lead to a more sustained (or perhaps more severe) recession in 2024. Many economists interpret non-landing as a possible 12 to 18-month delay in a hard landing.