Xing Ge on Crypto | After Trading for a Long Time, You’ll Realize That Making Predictions Is Never What Really Makes Money After trading for a long time, you’ll find that the truly difficult part isn’t finding opportunities. It’s being able to execute your trading plan when market sentiment is most one-sided. I was bullish earlier in the day and had already reached my take-profit level. Last night, I stopped being bullish. I began building short positions around 1910 and took profit at 1890 first. When it rebounded to 1895, I entered another short position. Both short trades were executed according to plan. Why choose to short? Not because I like shorting, nor because I wanted to go against the market. It was because, at that level, the risk-reward ratio for continuing to chase longs had become increasingly unfavorable, while the risk-reward ratio for shorting had begun to tilt in my favor. In the end, trading isn’t about who makes the most accurate predictions. It’s about who can make the right choice when risk and reward become unbalanced. Many people see prices rising and assume they can continue to rise. Many people see a breakout and can’t resist chasing in. But I focus more on another question: At this level, is it still worth chasing in? The biggest difference between traders and ordinary investors isn’t their market direction. It’s their way of thinking. Ordinary people focus on: “Can it still go up?” Traders focus on: “At this level, how much risk am I taking, and how much profit can I gain in return?” When the answer becomes increasingly unfavorable, I would rather stand on the opposite side of market sentiment. The market changes every day. But human nature barely changes. When prices rise, people tend to become greedy. When prices fall, people tend to panic. A truly mature trader does not follow their emotions, but follows their own trading rules. That’s why I’ve always insisted on making my thinking public. Not to prove that I’m right in every trade. But because I hope everyone can see what a complete trading system should look like. There is a plan. There is an entry. There is a stop-loss. There is a take-profit. When the market changes, adjust. When the logic fails, admit it. Trading has never been about who shouts the loudest. It’s about who can consistently execute their own rules over the long term.$ETH ‌$BTC ‌#CPI数据前夜，押注还是观望 #非农爆雷降息预期逆转

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CPI didn’t cause a shock, U.S. stocks rose, so why is BTC still stuck at $63k? The U.S. July CPI has been released: 3.4% year over year, continuing to cool from June’s 3.5%; core CPI was 2.5% year over year, with the overall result basically in line with expectations. After the data came out, U.S. stocks reacted positively: the Nasdaq rose, the semiconductor sector briefly gained about 3%, and AI stocks such as CoreWeave and Super Micro surged. But what about BTC? It’s currently only around $63,400 and hasn’t even retested $65k. In one sentence: Macro pressure has eased, but crypto’s own buying momentum still isn’t strong enough. This is actually more worth watching than the CPI figure itself. Under normal circumstances, if the market were truly preparing for a strong trend, “inflation not causing a shock + recovering risk appetite in U.S. stocks” should give BTC a decent breakout window. But BTC is still stuck between $63k and $65k, showing that capital hasn’t rushed in on a large scale simply because the CPI report came in line with expectations. My current view: We can be slightly more optimistic in the short term than we were before the CPI, but it’s still too early to call this a strengthening trend outright. Around $63,200 remains the first support level; $64,300–$65,000 is the resistance zone it must face again. Only after it firmly holds $65,000–$65,500 will I define this move as a valid strengthening trend. Conversely, if U.S. stocks continue rising, AI stocks continue rising, and BTC still can’t reclaim $65,000, that’s a signal to watch out for: the issue isn’t that the macro environment is uncooperative, but that crypto itself lacks capital. So I’m not rushing to chase the move right now. The CPI has already provided an opportunity; next, it’s BTC’s turn to prove whether it really wants to rise or will continue grinding around $63k. $BTC $ETH