Goldman Sachs: Siguiendo el ejemplo de la crisis petrolera de 1990, la Reserva Federal eventualmente reducirá las tasas de interés

Golden Finance reports that on March 31, as the Middle East conflict ignited oil prices and fueled inflation concerns, the global interest rate markets have recently undergone a dramatic “hawkish repricing”—the market shifted from betting on multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts earlier in the year to pricing rate hikes by year-end. Goldman Sachs is questioning one of the biggest market-pricing shifts this year. The firm said investors have overestimated the likelihood that the Federal Reserve would raise rates in response to the current surge in oil prices. In a research note, Goldman Sachs strategist Dominic Wilson outlined the firm’s view: the market is overreacting to the oil shock, betting that the Federal Reserve will implement tightening policy, and based on historical experience, this situation is unlikely to occur in most cases. The historical reference from 1990 is at the core of Goldman Sachs’s assessment. That year, when faced with an oil supply shock, bond market yields surged sharply, and investors bet that the Federal Reserve would tighten policy. But in the end, the Federal Reserve went against expectations and chose to cut rates as economic conditions deteriorated.
Goldman Sachs’s core logic is that inflation driven by oil price spikes is a supply-side shock rather than demand-side overheating. From a historical perspective, the Federal Reserve typically ignores supply-side inflation pressure and does not tighten monetary policy as a result. When economic growth is already slowing, this tendency becomes even more pronounced. (Dongxin She)