From Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Analysis, Order Flow, and Price Action, a Brief Analysis of BTC Short-Term Trends
$BTC I. Dow Theory
Major Trend (1-hour level): The medium-term downtrend from the May 10 high of 82,430 continues, with signs of acceleration in recent declines. After the panic crash to 59,095 on June 5, a strong rebound from June 7–15 reached a high of 67,248, but June 16–25 saw ten consecutive days of decline, with a crash to 59,280 on June 24 (approaching the June 5 low of 59,095) and a slight rebound to 61,200 at the close on June 25. The medium-term downtrend is accelerating, and the June 24 crash has approached the previous low of 59,095; if this level is broken, the medium-term downtrend will be confirmed to continue.
Short-term Trend (15-minute level): The June 19–25 movement shows an extreme bearish pattern of "surge and fall + deep pullback + panic crash + slight rebound." On June 19, the early session opened at 62,897 and rebounded to 63,568; on June 20, it continued to rise to 64,307; June 21–23 saw high-level consolidation; on June 23, a crash from 63,953 to 61,893 occurred; on June 24, a panic crash from 62,660 to 59,280 happened; on June 25, a slight rebound to 61,200 occurred. The short-term highs shifted downward from 67,248 (6/15) → 66,928 (6/16) → 65,507 (6/16 close) → 64,307 (6/20) → 63,568 (6/19), and lows shifted downward from 62,201 (6/18) → 62,275 (6/19) → 61,893 (6/23) → 59,280 (6/24). Both highs and lows are moving lower, indicating an extreme downtrend in the short term.
Dow Conclusion: The major trend remains bearish with accelerating downside momentum, and the short-term trend is extremely bearish. The June 24 crash has neared the June 5 low of 59,095, putting the market back into a deeply bearish state. Above, 62,500–63,000 is a key short-term resistance zone (near the June 19 low of 62,275). If the price breaks above this level effectively, the short-term downtrend may reverse; if the rebound stalls at 62,500 and breaks below 59,095, the downtrend accelerates, targeting the 55,000–50,000 range.
II. Chan Theory (Chan Theory)
Fractal Structure: On the daily level, multiple valid top and bottom fractals are marked in the chart.
Top fractals: Appear at 82,430 (May 10), 82,006 (May 14), 67,248 (June 15), 66,928 (June 16), etc. Top fractals show a significant downward shift from the 82,000 range to the 67,000 range on June 15–16, indicating bearish power is recovering.
Bottom fractals: Appear at 59,095 (June 5), 60,788 (June 10), 62,201 (June 18), 62,275 (June 19), 59,280 (June 24), 60,003 (June 25), etc. Bottom fractals show a significant downward shift from the 62,000 range to the 59,000–60,000 range on June 24–25, indicating extremely weak bullish buying.
Bi (Strokes) and Line Segments: From the bottom fractal at 60,788 to the top fractal at 67,248 (June 15), a very strong upward stroke forms, with a gain of about 6,460. Then, from the top fractal at 67,248 to the bottom fractal at 62,201 (June 18), a downward stroke forms, with a loss of about 5,047, about 78% of the upward stroke's strength—a relatively strong pullback. Then, from the bottom fractal at 62,201 to the top fractal at 64,307 (June 20), an upward stroke forms, gaining about 2,106, about 42% of the previous downward stroke's strength, indicating bullish power is recovering. Then, from the top fractal at 64,307 to the bottom fractal at 59,280 (June 24), an extremely strong downward stroke forms, losing about 5,027, roughly equal to the prior downward stroke (-5,047), indicating extremely strong and persistent bearish power.
Central Zone: In the 63,000–65,000 range, the K-lines from June 11–16 are densely interwoven, forming a Chan Theory central zone ①. The current price of 61,200 is below this zone, indicating an acceleration phase after breaking below the zone. In the 60,000–62,000 range, K-lines from June 18–25 are densely interwoven, forming a new central zone ② (under construction). In the 66,000–66,500 range, K-lines from June 14–16 are densely interwoven, forming a bullish central zone, but the crash on June 17–18 completely broke below this zone, indicating an acceleration phase after the breakout.
Chan Conclusion: The upward stroke is very strong (+6,460), but the downward strokes are also very strong (-5,047 and -5,027). Currently, the market is in a low-level consolidation after the extension of the downward stroke, with no termination signal yet. Short-term focus is on whether an effective bottom fractal can form near 59,280. If so, the downward stroke may end; if 59,095 is directly broken, the downward stroke extends, posing a high risk of a drop to 55,000–50,000.
III. Elliott Wave Theory (Elliott Wave)
Based on the daily-level wave structure, the trend from the May 10 high of 82,430 is divided into a typical "five-wave decline completed + ABC rebound failed + bearish impulse wave starting" structure:
Wave 1 (Crash): From 82,430 to 75,826 (May 26), range about -6,604.
Wave 2 (Rebound): From 75,826 to 77,280 (May 26), range about +1,454.
Wave 3 (Main decline): From 77,280 to 66,704 (June 2), range about -10,576.
Wave 4 (Rebound): From 66,704 to 74,154 (May 31), range about +7,450.
Wave 5 (Terminal crash): From 74,154 to 59,095 (June 5), range about -15,059.
Wave A (Rebound): From 59,095 to 64,186 (June 8), range about +5,091.
Wave B (Pullback): From 64,186 to 60,788 (June 10), range about -3,398. The pullback is about 66.8% of Wave A, a typical pullback.
Wave C (Extension): From 60,788 to 67,248 (June 15), range about +6,460. The current magnitude of Wave C is about 127% of Wave A. If Wave C equals Wave A, the target is about 65,879; if Wave C is 1.618 times Wave A, the target is about 68,292.
Wave C Pullback: From 67,248 to 59,280 (June 24), range about -7,968, about 123.3% of Wave C's gain, an extremely deep pullback, a clear signal of Wave C rebound failure.
Elliott Conclusion: Currently, the market is in the start of a bearish impulse wave after the failure of the ABC rebound's Wave C. Wave C was very strong (+6,460), but the pullback was even larger (-7,968), indicating a clear failure of the Wave C rebound. If the price breaks 59,095, it confirms the start of the bearish impulse wave, targeting 55,000–50,000; if it stops near 59,095 and rebounds above 62,500, Wave C may resume.
IV. Volume-Price Analysis (Volume-Price Analysis)
Overall Volume-Price Characteristics: June 24 shows extremely negative volume-price characteristics. The morning crash saw a sharp surge in volume, the afternoon rebound saw shrinking volume, and the evening decline saw volume remain high. Heavy-volume bearish K-lines appear densely, with volume gradually increasing, indicating extremely strong bearish power. June 25 shows a volume-price pattern of a low-volume rebound + moderate volume increase, indicating a slight exhaustion of bearish power.
Key Volume-Price Nodes:
June 20: A moderately high-volume bullish candle (volume 17.5 billion), rising from 63,536 to 64,240, body 704, confirming bulls began tentative attacks.
June 21: A low-volume bearish candle (volume 15.7 billion), crashing from 64,242 to 63,238, body -1,004, confirming selling pressure emerged at highs.
June 23: A high-volume bearish candle (volume 29.6 billion), crashing from 63,953 to 61,893, body -2,060, confirming bearish power erupted.
June 24: An extremely high-volume bearish candle (volume 42.2 billion), crashing from 62,660 to 59,280, body -3,380, confirming bearish power peaked, with panic selling concentrated.
June 25: A low-volume bullish candle (volume 25 billion), rebounding from 59,991 to 61,200, body 1,209, confirming bearish power slightly exhausted.
Recent 7-Day Volume-Price: From 63,568 down to 59,280 and back to 61,200, the pattern is "crash with volume + rebound with low volume + another crash with huge volume + stabilization with low volume." The market is waiting for a direction in the 59,000–61,000 range.
Volume-Price Conclusion: The June 24 crash was accompanied by massive volume, indicating extremely strong bearish power. The low-volume rebound on June 25 suggests a slight exhaustion of bearish power. Key observation: If a rebound to 62,500–63,000 shows high-volume stagnation, it confirms the start of the bearish impulse wave; if a breakout below 59,095 occurs with high volume, the decline accelerates.
V. Order Flow (Order Flow)
Volume Profile: The Volume Point of Control (POC) for the recent 7 days (June 19–25) is at 63,941. This is the densest area of trading between bulls and bears, forming the most important value area center. The current price of 61,200 is well below the POC, indicating a severe negative deviation between the market value center and the actual price, with bearish power completely dominating the market.
Current Position Analysis: The price of 61,200 is about 2,741 below the POC, which is below the value area (Below Value) with a large deviation. In Order Flow theory, a price below the POC means short-term sellers are fully in control, and the market has shifted from a premium state to a deep discount state. The price is now converging to a lower value area, with obvious resistance near 62,000.
High Volume Nodes (HVN):
67,000–67,500: Upper resistance HVN (dense trading area after the June 15 rebound high, now forming strong resistance)
65,000–66,000: Secondary resistance HVN (dense trading area from June 14–16, now forming resistance)
63,500–64,500: Core HVN (area of POC, now forming strong resistance)
62,000–62,500: Secondary resistance HVN (dense trading area from June 18–19, now forming resistance)
59,000–60,000: Lower support HVN (large-volume absorption area after the June 5 and June 24 crashes, now forming support)
Delta Analysis: Delta estimates show that during the June 24 crash, Delta turned sharply negative (around -8 billion level), confirming active selling dominated to the extreme. During the June 25 rebound, Delta turned slightly positive (around +1 billion level), confirming a slight exhaustion of bearish power. Currently, the Delta MA12 has recovered from negative territory to near the zero line, indicating buying power is recovering and selling power has weakened noticeably.
Order Flow Conclusion: The price is below the POC of 63,941, with short-term sellers fully in control. Above, 62,500 and 63,500 are two key HVN resistance levels. If the price can break above these levels with sustained positive Delta and high volume, a move to 65,000 is possible; if Delta remains negative and the price breaks below 59,095, the bearish impulse wave will start.
VI. Price Action (Price Action)
Support and Resistance Levels:
Strong Resistance: 82,430 (phase high), 78,003 (May 26 rebound high), 74,154 (May 31 rebound high), 67,248 (June 15 rebound high)
Key Resistance: 65,600 (June 16 close), 64,307 (June 20 rebound high), 63,568 (June 19 rebound high), 62,500 (psychological level)
Key Support: 61,200 (current price), 60,000 (psychological level), 59,280 (June 24 crash low), 59,095 (June 5 crash low), 55,000 (psychological level)
Candlestick Patterns:
June 15: A large bullish candle with a long upper shadow (body 578, upper shadow 959), surging from 65,711 to 66,289, with a high of 67,248, showing bullish power erupted but met selling pressure at highs, forming a "shooting star" warning pattern.
June 24: A large bearish candle with a long body (body -3,380, lower shadow 380), crashing from 62,660 to 59,280, showing bearish power peaked, forming a "bearish engulfing" pattern.
June 25: A large bullish candle with a long lower shadow (body 1,209, lower shadow 711), rebounding from 59,991 to 61,200, showing bullish power beginning to recover, forming a "hammer" bullish pattern.
Trend Structure:
Short-term: Running in an extreme downward channel (trendline connecting 67,248, 65,507, 64,307, 62,201, 59,280), but a stabilization and rebound on June 25 may form a breakout of the downward channel.
Medium-term: The downtrend from the May 10 high of 82,430 is accelerating, and the lower lows since June 5 low of 59,095 indicate accelerating downside momentum.
Price Action Conclusion: The short-term is in a low-level consolidation after the crash, with 62,500 as the bull-bear dividing line: a breakout above could reverse the downtrend, targeting 63,500–64,000; a failure and decline will test support at 59,095–59,280.
Comprehensive Analysis
Dow Theory signals that the major trend remains bearish with accelerating downside momentum (lower lows), the short-term trend is extremely bearish, with key levels at 62,500 (up) and 59,095 (down). Chan Theory shows extremely strong upward strokes (+6,460) but also extremely strong downward strokes (-5,047 and -5,027), currently in a low-level consolidation after the extension of the downward stroke. Elliott Wave Theory confirms the completion of a five-wave decline, with the ABC rebound's Wave C failing (+6,460 then -7,968), and the bearish impulse wave may begin. Volume-Price Analysis shows the June 24 crash with massive volume + the June 25 low-volume rebound as a warning signal. Order Flow shows the POC at 63,941, with the price below the POC, and the Delta MA12 recovering near zero. Price Action shows triple patterns of "shooting star" + "bearish engulfing" + "hammer," with short-term bias toward consolidation but 62,500 resistance being key.
Short-Term Strategy Suggestions:
Bullish Scenario: If the price shows a low-volume stabilization + bottom fractal + positive Delta near 59,500–60,000, consider long, target 62,500 → 63,500, stop loss at 58,500.
Bearish Scenario: If a rebound to 62,500–63,000 shows a top fractal with high-volume decline, confirming the start of the bearish impulse wave, consider short, target 59,095 → 55,000, stop loss at 64,000.
Current State: 61,200 is in a low-level consolidation zone after the crash, with a short-term bias toward consolidation. It is recommended to wait for a breakout above 62,500 to confirm a trend reversal before chasing long, or wait for a breakdown below 59,095 to confirm accelerated decline before chasing short.
