Bernstein: prevê que o volume de negócios do mercado de previsão ultrapassará 1 trilhão de dólares até 2030, com Robinhood e Coinbase potencialmente tornando-se plataformas de distribuição centrais

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Deep Tide TechFlow News, April 15, According to CoinDesk, Wall Street broker Bernstein released a research report indicating that the predicted market trading volume is expected to grow from $51 billion in 2025 to approximately $1 trillion in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of about 80%. The trading volume is expected to reach $240 billion in 2026, and Polymarket and Kalshi have already reached a total trading volume of $60 billion since the beginning of the year.

The report believes that the core drivers of growth are the clearer federal-level regulation, blockchain infrastructure supporting global liquidity, and the integration of mainstream trading platforms. Industry revenue is expected to increase from about $400 million in 2025 to approximately $10.8 billion in 2030.

Distribution capability is seen as a key competitive barrier. Robinhood has achieved an annualized revenue scale of $350 million through prediction markets and is advancing its exchange infrastructure layout; Coinbase, on the other hand, provides a nationwide access portal with over 1,000 contracts via the Kalshi platform. Bernstein maintains a “market outperform” rating for both companies.

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