CITIC Construction Investment: A indústria de movimento de energia está na faixa rápida de crescimento A participação de mercado e a margem de lucro das motocicletas na China continuam a aumentar

China Securities Construction Investment published a research report stating that the power sports industry is on a fast growth track, with consumption upgrades and increased demand for leisure and entertainment driving the penetration of all-terrain vehicles and large-displacement motorcycles. Chinese motorcycle companies have improved their product strength in recent years, with obvious cost-performance advantages, and are expected to capture overseas market share. The product structure continues to optimize, with market share and profit margins steadily increasing. Looking ahead for the year, overseas motorcycle demand will continue to grow, with Japanese companies guiding continued growth in their motorcycle businesses, and Chinese companies expected to seize market share globally; the four-wheel vehicle market is expected to grow in the medium to long term, with Chinese brands actively deploying, and likely to catch up with industry leaders.

China Securities Construction Investment’s main points are as follows:

Two-wheel vehicles: Emerging markets grow rapidly, Japanese and Indian companies perform strongly

By Q4 2025, Europe’s growth will be temporarily pressured by the high base effect brought by Euro 5+(, with Spain, Italy, Germany, France, the UK, and Turkey respectively down by -26.9%, +0.5%, -68.6%, -26.7%, -33.5%, and -42.3% year-on-year). Southeast Asia remains steady(, with Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand respectively up by +7.9%, -6.8%, and -1.3% year-on-year). India and Latin America maintain high growth momentum(, with India, Pakistan, Colombia, Mexico, and Argentina respectively up by +16.9%, +25.3%, +29.8%, +20.0%, and +45.1% year-on-year). Benefiting from demand growth in emerging markets and market share gains in mature markets, Japanese and Indian brands continue to see sales and revenue growth domestically and in export markets; high-end markets in Europe and America face pressure due to demand and intensified competition, with local brands under pressure. The consumption structure of motorcycles is changing, competition in mature markets is intensifying, and there is divergence in unit prices, profit per unit, and profit margins among Chinese, Japanese, and European/American brands.

Four-wheel vehicles: North American demand recovers, leading brands show divergence

Benefiting from low base effects and consumption-stimulating interest rate cuts, North American demand recovered in Q4, while European demand weakened. Leading brands continue promotional strategies to clear channel inventories, but rising tariffs and increased costs continue to suppress profit margins. In Q4 2025, Polaris’ all-terrain vehicle business revenue grew by low double digits, with a slight decline in profit margin; Yamaha’s revenue declined by low double digits with continued losses; Kawasaki’s all-terrain vehicle volume decreased but prices increased, maintaining stable revenue; Denso’s specialty vehicle revenue declined by double digits, with profit margins decreasing.

Chinese companies: A new journey of globalization, TaoTao and Linhai continue to grow

In Q4 2025, Chinese companies actively deployed overseas markets to seize global market share. TaoTao and Linhai achieved revenue and profit growth, with their revenue scales reaching new quarterly highs. Meanwhile, TaoTao began to expand into fields such as robotics and robotic dogs. Based on growth in core businesses, Chinese motorcycle companies are gradually developing secondary growth curves.

Outlook: Japanese companies guide continued motorcycle growth, four-wheel brands will diverge

In two-wheel vehicles, Japanese companies forecast that motorcycle sales will continue to grow in fiscal years 2025 and 2026. After two years of decline, Harley-Davidson expects stabilization in 2026; global market competition is expected to intensify, and Chinese companies are likely to seize market share worldwide. Regarding four-wheel vehicles, industry demand is recovering overall, leading brands are optimizing inventory levels, and the outlook for 2026 is optimistic. Kawasaki, Spring Breeze, and other second-tier brands are actively deploying, while Yamaha is gradually falling behind. TaoTao’s dual-brand strategy is expected to continue capturing the golf cart market, likely outperforming the industry and leading brands like E-Z-GO and Yamaha, with market share continuing to increase.

Risk warnings: Overseas demand falling short of expectations, freight and exchange rate fluctuations, trade frictions, and additional tariffs.