Banco da China Futuro: Relatório diário de produtos agrícolas de 7 de abril

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Oils and Oilseeds: Uncertainty in the Middle East Raises Prices for Oilcake and Oilseeds

(Hou Xueling, Professional Qualification Number: F3048706; Trading Advisory Qualification Number: Z0013637)

The market continues to be priced macroeconomically. During the holiday, the situation in the Middle East changed again. Indirect negotiations between the US and Iran are ongoing, and all signs point to a de-escalation of conflict and a resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The market’s timeline is set for April 6, mid to late April, and May. If a ceasefire agreement is reached, the prices of crude oil, oils, and oilseeds may face a correction risk, with the market partially reversing previous high premiums. At that time, palm oil will perform weaker than soybean oil and rapeseed oil, and oils will perform weaker than protein meal. However, if the situation remains tense, crude oil prices will stay above $100 with high volatility, and the price center for oils will continue to rise due to increased biodiesel demand and declining local inventories, with imported products outperforming domestic ones. Palm oil will outperform soybean oil and rapeseed oil, and oils will outperform protein meal.

In other sectors, Brazil, India, and the EU are actively seeking solutions for fertilizer crises, which are diminishing. Argentina’s soybean harvest has begun, increasing South American soybean supply. China and other countries are slowing their purchases, but US soybean export pressure remains high. However, after the implementation of US biofuel policies, domestic demand for soybean meal is increasing, and the market is paying attention to raw material choices in the biodiesel industry. The global soybean price center has moved downward, but US soybean prices remain volatile at high levels. Domestic pig prices continue to decline, with unclear bottoms, industry capacity reduction accelerating, and soybean meal terminal demand expectations decreasing. With supply and demand both weak in April, inventory reduction is limited, leading to negative basis and unilateral prices. The main strategy for soybean meal this month is a reverse spread.

Eggs: Egg-laying hen stocks increase month-on-month, putting pressure on egg prices

(Kong Hailan, Professional Qualification Number: F3032578; Trading Advisory Qualification Number: Z0013544)

1. This week, the main April 2023 egg futures contract 2605 continued to fluctuate within a range. After rebounding to the upper limit of the range last week, it pulled back at the start of the week. On Tuesday, Zhuochuang Information released March monthly data, showing that the number of laying hens in China continued to slightly increase month-on-month. Data from the supply side continued to pressure egg prices, and on Wednesday, the main contract 2605’s decline widened. Overall, egg futures prices continue to fluctuate within a range.

2. Spot egg prices declined this week. Driven by Qingming holiday stocking, market demand improved, and spot egg prices rebounded, reaching a seasonal high at the weekend. As Qingming approaches, downstream stocking is nearing completion, and market sales have slowed, leading to a correction in spot egg prices. As of April 3, Zhuochuang statistics show the average daily price of brown eggs in China at 3.27 yuan per jin, down 0.07 yuan from last week, with a high point at the weekend down 0.15 yuan. Currently, supply still exerts pressure on egg prices.

3. The latest monthly data from Zhuochuang shows that as of March 31, China’s laying hen stock was 1.35B, an increase of 4M from the previous month, up 0.29% month-on-month. Short-term supply is ample, combined with the end of pre-holiday stocking, demand has fallen back, and egg prices have rebounded to a high point before correcting. The sample enterprises’ monthly hatchling output was 46.06 million, continuing to increase month-on-month. Based on historical restocking data, before July, the addition of new laying hens will continue to grow. Meanwhile, the slaughter volume of old hens increased significantly, with 21.83 million slaughtered in the week ending April 2, at a high level for two consecutive weeks. If the slaughter volume remains high or increases, it will help reduce capacity; otherwise, supply will continue to pressure egg prices. Before substantial supply-side improvement, the expectation is for range-bound fluctuations, with attention to changes in breeding intentions affecting supply. Additionally, according to current exchange rules, monitor opportunities in longer-term contracts after main contract rollovers.

Corn: Policy-driven grain supply causes price range to decline

(Wang Na, Professional Qualification Number: F0243534; Trading Advisory Qualification Number: Z0001262)

Overseas: This week, CBOT grain markets were affected by USDA planting intentions report, crude oil’s mixed performance, weak exports, and drought concerns, resulting in overall downward volatility with differentiated trends among commodities. CBOT May corn futures initially rose then fell, with a decline approaching 2%. USDA released the 2026 planting area estimate at 95.3 million acres, down 3% year-on-year but above market expectations. Coupled with crude oil retreating and dragging ethanol demand, corn prices were pressured. Wheat May futures fluctuated sharply, closing down about 1% for the week. Despite USDA forecasting the lowest wheat planting area since 1919, weekly wheat net sales were only 24k tons, a new low for the year, with weak exports offsetting the planting area positive, causing prices to spike then fall sharply.

Domestic: This week, national corn prices weakened. As of April 2, the average weekly price was 2,412 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan from last week. Northeast corn prices fell by 10-20 yuan/ton, with some sales at the North Port and deep processing prices after adjustments. Dried grain sales were limited. North China’s corn prices were generally weak. After rising to high levels earlier, traders took profits. Deep processing inventories continued to rise, with cautious procurement. Corn in sales areas fluctuated weakly, with weak demand despite strong cost support. Futures contracts, such as the May contract, declined from resistance at 2,400 yuan. Wheat auctions and rice supply pressures also weighed on corn futures, which remained under pressure with volatile, weak performance.

Pork: Prices continue to decline, futures fluctuate in search of bottom

(Kong Hailan, Professional Qualification Number: F3032578; Trading Advisory Qualification Number: Z0013544)

1. This week, live pig spot prices continued to weaken, with a slight rebound midweek. As of April 2, the average price was 9.24 yuan/kg, down 0.14 yuan from last week; in Henan, the benchmark region, pig prices were 9.28 yuan/kg, down 0.25 yuan. Domestic pig prices showed a pattern of decline, rise, then decline again. Early in the week, during month-end and start-of-month transition, and with some low-price areas resuming fattening, prices were supported, causing a rebound. Later in the week, as slaughtering resumed and some producers reduced weights, supply was ample, but downstream demand was moderate, causing prices to stabilize then decline.

2. Zhuochuang data shows that as of April 2, piglet prices averaged 234 yuan per head, down 44 yuan from last week. Supply of piglets remains ample. However, with continued losses in fattening, downstream restocking enthusiasm is low, and sow farms are slow to sell, leading to continued decline in piglet prices.

3. As of April 2, the average slaughter weight was 125.85 kg per head, down 0.04 kg from last week. Regional transaction weights are gradually decreasing. As pig prices continue to fall and losses increase, some breeders accelerate slaughter. Meanwhile, slaughterhouses are reducing purchases of large, low-quality pigs, and average slaughter weights are slightly decreasing.

4. Wind data shows that on March 25, the government announced a pig-to-grain ratio of 4.23.

5. Zhuochuang data indicates that as of April 2, profit from self-breeding and self-rearing was -332 yuan per head, an increase of 16 yuan from last week; profit from piglet fattening was -236 yuan per head, an increase of 21 yuan. Early in the month, slaughter volume decreased, and some low-price areas increased restocking, causing a short-term rebound in pig prices. In the later part of the week, as slaughtering resumed and weights continued to decrease, pig prices declined again, with weekly averages falling further. Despite a slight decrease in feed costs, the ongoing weakness in live pig prices further widened losses.

6. According to MOFCOM statistics, in February 2026, slaughter volume of large-scale designated slaughter enterprises was 31.77 million pigs, down 27% month-on-month but up 45% year-on-year.

7. This week, slaughterhouse operating rates increased week-on-week. Zhuochuang data shows that as of April 2, the sample slaughterhouses operated at 37.16%, up 0.83 percentage points from last week. Breeders are highly motivated to slaughter, supply is abundant, and low pork prices support downstream demand. Orders are slowly increasing, and some slaughterhouses are storing pigs, supporting the continued rise in operating rates.

8. Based on dual analysis of live pig futures and spot markets, the bottoming process for pig prices continues. Overall, the ample supply continues to pressure prices, increasing the duration and cycle of bottoming, with a continued weak outlook for pig prices.